Tell me where this will fail

[Brock Landers]

Ok, I am working with certain assumptions here that I will state later, but lets say you want to make 150 dollars a day, every day on blackjack.

With these assumptions..

1)You have a starting roll of 4000 dollars
2)You will bet 25 dollars a hand
3)you will stop when you get ahead 150 dollars
4)You will use the martingale approach to get your goals

5)The next day you will have a roll of 4150 and so on

No the assumption i make is you WILL win a hand eventually, and at 25 a hand and with a 4000 roll, how much leyway do you have? It seems to be almost a mathimatical certainty with the right discipline and with the proper bank roll, this is EASILY accomplished.

Now shoot holes in my plan, but stick with the GIVEN ASSUMPTIONS.

 

[royalfan]

Almost sure to work on any given day, BUT eventually you are going to get smoked once and lose the whole roll with an extended cold streak.

 

[Brock Landers]

I am thinking with the math i did, with a roll of 4000 you will only have room to lose 8 bets if at 25 a hand, need to work it with a lower margin and take more time and less chances, go to 5 or 10 a hand...

 

[PanchoSanza]

Money management does not turn a negative expectation bet into a positive one, thats all you need to know.

 

[D2bets]

Every once in a while you will lose 4,000 dollars and then it will take you an entire month to have a shot at making that back. After you win 150 for 11 days in a row you'll feel infallible and then BAM you lose 4K.

Even assuming no doubling or splitting, your +25 martingale will look like this.....
25
50
100
200
400
800
1600...at this point you're down 3,275 and don't have enough to double up. That's 7 hands. If you've never lost 7 hands in a row before playing blackjack then you haven't been playing very long.

 

[D2bets]

Personally I prefer playing blackjack with a "reverse martingale", increasing my bets progressively each hand after a win and going back down to a base after a loss. To my surprise I've had good success with this so I will stick with it.

 

[ronaldn]

Brock, the casinos will love you. They will send a chartered plane for you and pick you up in a limosine plus "treat" you to the finest suite in the place. If you were just flipping a coin you will lose 8 in a row once in 256 tries, 9 in a row once in 512, and 10 in a row once in 1024. At those points you will undoubtably reach the house limits. When you consider that when playing BJ perfectly the odds are not 50/50 but more like 53/47 those losses above will occur even more frequently. I have played a very large number of hands of BJ in my life and find hitting losses of 8 to 10 in a row occurs quite frequently. Why do you think they have house limits? Best of luck to you!

Ron

 

[RacerX]

If you've never lost 7 hands in a row before playing blackjack then you haven't been playing very long.

Been there....done that.

I keep track of hands I've won/lost in a row with my chips. I have a semi system that increase wagers as I'm winning. I once lost 15 hands in a row. Assuming I would do the martingale system (if I could find a casino that would take my higher wagers) starting at just $5 per hand and losing 15 in row...
1. -5
2. -10
3. -20
4. -40
5. -80
6. -160
7. -320
8. -640
9. -1280
10. -2560
11. -5120
12. -10240
13. -20480
14. -40960
15. -81920

You would lose close to 164K in 10 minutes trying to make $150 per day. On the flip side, it would only take you 1094 days to make it back.
:monsters-

 

[D2bets]

Brock, the casinos will love you. They will send a chartered plane for you and pick you up in a limosine plus "treat" you to the finest suite in the place. If you were just flipping a coin you will lose 8 in a row once in 256 tries, 9 in a row once in 512, and 10 in a row once in 1024. At those points you will undoubtably reach the house limits. When you consider that when playing BJ perfectly the odds are not 50/50 but more like 53/47 those losses above will occur even more frequently. I have played a very large number of hands of BJ in my life and find hitting losses of 8 to 10 in a row occurs quite frequently. Why do you think they have house limits? Best of luck to you!

Ron

ronald, that ain't WHY they have house limits, that's for sure. And it's not 53/47 if you play correctly with good rules, it's more like 50.12/49.88.

 

[Doug]

Better to vary bets with card counting techniques, you could be doubling up into a negative deck, maybe you lost because dealer keeps getting good cards, which aren't left for you.

 

[ronaldn]

Personally I prefer playing blackjack with a "reverse martingale", increasing my bets progressively each hand after a win and going back down to a base after a loss. To my surprise I've had good success with this so I will stick with it.

D2, that will work. Years ago I tested a system of betting 1, 2, 2, 3, 4, 5, etc after a win and returning to 1 after every loss. The key being to repeat the 2 unit bet one time. Over 20,000 hands there was never a single 1000 hand subset that wasnt improved with that type betting. Notice I didnt say it would change a losing 1000 hands into a winning one but you would lose less on a losing session and win more on a winning one. Now I dont know if 20,000 hands is statistically valid but those were my results. Whenever I play in a casino I use that system and in all the play I have done I am overall in the black. No easy feat.

 

[ronaldn]

ronald, that ain't WHY they have house limits, that's for sure. And it's not 53/47 if you play correctly with good rules, it's more like 50.12/49.88.

No, no D2. You are talking about house edge and not the number of hands won or lost. The difference is that when playing perfect basic strategy you make up the difference on double downs and splits money wise. The number of HANDS won is only around 47%. i dont have the exact figure handy but that is close.

 

[PanchoSanza]

D2, that will work. Years ago I tested a system of betting 1, 2, 2, 3, 4, 5, etc after a win and returning to 1 after every loss. The key being to repeat the 2 unit bet one time. Over 20,000 hands there was never a single 1000 hand subset that wasnt improved with that type betting. Notice I didnt say it would change a losing 1000 hands into a winning one but you would lose less on a losing session and win more on a winning one. Now I dont know if 20,000 hands is statistically valid but those were my results. Whenever I play in a casino I use that system and in all the play I have done I am overall in the black. No easy feat.

That system you speak of was tested ages ago and didn't work to enhance returns. It was simulated over millions of hands, forget the book I read it in, may have been The Big Player by Ken Uston.

Unless you count cards, no type of money management will increase your bottom line.

 

[vegasisstilldead]

I have used D2's method as well. While it is not a guarantee it does minimize losses during cold streaks. It works for me and believe me i am no pro.

 

[ronaldn]

That system you speak of was tested ages ago and didn't work to enhance returns. It was simulated over millions of hands, forget the book I read it in, may have been The Big Player by Ken Uston.

Unless you count cards, no type of money management will increase your bottom line.

Hmmm, I have read just about every BJ book there is and have never seen that system mentioned. I thought I came up with it all on my own. Your point is probably quite valid tho that in millions of hands it wouldnt show any improvement. What it does however is make the game quite a bit more exciting than flat betting and wont lessen your results overall.

And D2, if that isnt the major reason to have house limits, may I ask what is. Without limits a person with an unlimited bankroll could clean a casino out.

 

[bigbet1234]

THREE WORDS:

DON'T DO IT!

Those casino's are built in Vegas cause everyone has a method that is going to break the house.

Learn to count cards, or some VP, or hell, advantage slots. But that's the problem, few have the disapline to learn, and then stay disaplined 100% of the time.

BB

 

[Woody0]

And D2, if that isnt the major reason to have house limits, may I ask what is. Without limits a person with an unlimited bankroll could clean a casino out.

It is indeed true that Bill Gates could clean out any casino, playing a slightly negative expectation game with no limits, by using Martingale since his bankroll far exceeds that of the casino.

For the rest of us its a losing proposition.

 

[ensign_lee]

No matter how well you play blackjack, blackjack is -EV, unless you factor in bonuses.

No amount of money management will let you win at blackjack unless you are getting bonus money at the same time.

 

[Doug]

It's huge +ev counting without restrictions. Deal me a game where I can bet $5 a hand and bump that to $100 when I choose to, I'd kill it. You can't play that extreme in a casino.


Deal it to the bottom of the deck while you're at it !

 

[zee]

It will fail on one of the zillion wrong assumptions that you make.