Tell me honestly - Do you think this is a good bet at +250

DannyMay · Sep 17, 2003

AL East Winner - Yankees
AL Central Winner - Minnesota
AL West Winner - Oakland
AL Wild Card - Boston
NL East Winner - Atlanta
NL Central Winner - Houston
NL West Winner - San Fran
NL Wild Card - Philadelphia

Got to get all 8 correct. Do you think its a good bet at +250 ?

FunkSoulBrother · Sep 17, 2003

No, not really

jjgold · Sep 17, 2003

Seems ok

killy · Sep 17, 2003

terrible bet in fact. Philly is still 1/2 game back and you still need the others to come through too. I would have taken this bet at +500 and no less

sickgambler · Sep 17, 2003

I don't even think it's close to being that good..

Minnesota is only 1.5 games in 1st..far from over

Boston for wildcard..They're only 2.5 games up, far from over.

Houston is only 1.5 games ahead of chicago. Far from over..

And most important, Philly is not even in 1st for the wildcard

______

Any of these 4 could easily not win.. And you're only gettting +250?? LOL
That would be the worst bet of all time if you were to make this. You should be getting at least +430 for this, not +250..

docdekay · Sep 17, 2003

This a COMPLETE sucker bet. Whenever you look at a ML you should view it in terms of percentage. I will rephrase your question and you can answer it yourself.

Does your bet win 28.5% of the time to break even? I say not even close. Your bet has to win more than 29% of the time to reap a profit!

[This message was edited by docdekay on September 17, 2003 at 01:46 PM.]

Jazz · Sep 17, 2003

Locks:

AL East Winner - Yankees
AL West Winner - Oakland
NL East Winner - Atlanta
NL West Winner - San Fran

Damn good bet:

AL Central Winner - Minnesota (have 7 games remaining with Detroit, and CWS have 7 games against KC and 2 vs. the NYY - and of course Minny plays tonight and tomorrow vs. the CWS at home)

Very good bet:

AL Wild Card - Boston

Not fond of this one, but not horrible:

NL Central Winner - Houston

Cubbies have the easiest schedule. Houston hot as shit right now but have 2 remaining at Col, then 3 straight at STL and 3 at home vs. SF who still is locked in a race for best NL record with ATL.

Weakest link:

NL Wild Card - Philadelphia (5 games left against Fla, who had beat them 8 straight until last night - and the final 3 vs. Atlanta)

The Cubbies could slip in the WC slot if Phi and Fla beat each other up - the last 3 games vs. Fla are in Florida, though Fla plays 4 away at Atl after the Phils this week, they close with the Mets at home

Danny, not sure if you want my opinion, but I did spend some time checking it out - I don't think +250 is a good bet - maybe +500?? I wouldn't take this one.

DannyMay · Sep 17, 2003

I took it at +250.

Jazz · Sep 17, 2003

Horseshoe · Sep 17, 2003

Fla is gonna beat my Phils in the end, and Bowa is wrongly gonna get the boot

jwunderdog · Sep 17, 2003

This must be a joke?

Just betting

Minn and Philly +250 is a bad bet let alone the rest included.

Thrillseeker · Sep 17, 2003

Just try to refrain from posting this play in the newbies forum and imploring them to bet their life savings on it...

Railbird · Sep 17, 2003

bottom line is its a winning bet, the +250 you could do better on, buts its a winner.

sickgambler · Sep 17, 2003

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Railbird:
bottom line is its a winning bet, the +250 you could do better on, buts its a winner.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

This has to go down as one of the worst posts in RX history. I can't believe it came out of the mouth of our very own, Railbird. Raily, you are setting a bad example for our squares here.. That quote by you can end up costing those boys big money if they were to listen to you. So what you are saying is if a team is going to win, it don't matter what the line is because they will win. IOW, if the Red Sox are at home with Pedro pitching and the line is -300 and you can only bet it at -370, who cares because it will win. Come on man, that's silly. In betting, who is going to win and who is going to lose is not as important as the value of the line. So if Eagles are -1800 on the moneyline and most likely will win, you are basically saying that betting them at -4000 is just as good because it will win. That is exactly what you are saying here. Very bad post by the Rail himself.

jurdo · Sep 17, 2003

sickgambler, railbird is correct, if you think pedro is an 80% chance of a win then he is still a good bet at -370 despite -300 being available somewhere else (prehaps where you don't have funds)

sickgambler · Sep 17, 2003

Steven, you're kidding right? You'd lay 70 cents on a game more than its current price? But the issue here is that this prop by Daniel is not 70 cents off, it's a +250 that should be getting close to +500, and he is not telling Dan to lay off it, even though it's a horrible bet.

DannyMay · Sep 17, 2003

Thanks Jazz.

ThrillSeeker - I thought about it, but I can only give these newbies 1 sure winner a week. I will have to let them find their own winners if they want more than 1. I cant do it all for them.

Sick Gambler,

I had lunch with Barry Bonds this afternoon and he assured me this is a good play at +250. If I cant listen to the greatest home run hitter baseball has ever known, who can I listen to ?

soccerbob · Sep 17, 2003

Danny- I hope you cash but the price isn't even close to what it should be. It's way off in fact from what you should be getting.

Thrillseeker · Sep 17, 2003

GL and hope it comes through for you...

jwunderdog · Sep 18, 2003

I can't beleive you bet that. As of when you placed your bet the Odds on Minn winning the Central couldn't have been more then -130 and was probably closer to even and philly +130, WHat would that 2 team parlay pay? and you added all the other possiblities as well.