Teasers

[KingEleven]

Have not had someone convince me in all my years of sports wagering, why it is ever a good idea to play a teaser. Have never played one in my life. Anyone agree? Who can convince me otherwise?

 

[HarryCaray]

NFL only
Must cross two key numbers (preferably 3 and 7)

I have no concrete evidence to back it up, but I believe if you stick to those rules and apply some filtering/handicapping, it can be +ev

Especially on games with low totals

 

[packer2012]

Have not had someone convince me in all my years of sports wagering, why it is ever a good idea to play a teaser. Have never played one in my life. Anyone agree? Who can convince me otherwise?

They might be a better play than other plays at some prices, under certain circumstances. But........ If they are ever offered on the board..... they are not a "good" play!

 

[KingEleven]

NFL only
Must cross two key numbers (preferably 3 and 7)

I have no concrete evidence to back it up, but I believe if you stick to those rules and apply some filtering/handicapping, it can be +ev

Especially on games with low totals

but why not just play those 2 games separately?

 

[packer2012]

but why not just play those 2 games separately?

?????????????????????

 

[KingEleven]

?????????????????????

Pack, I know why, I guess sounded like dumb question...I'm just puzzled why people think the tease benefits them

 

[KingEleven]

I've just seen too many time people lose on a teaser when they would have went 1-1

 

[HarryCaray]

Another area I've had good success with 2 teamers is when hedging or to set up a hedge opportunity.

Let's say I feel strongly about Team A +2.5, and in the night game Team B is -8 and I have no opinion on that game

I will play Team A moneyline but also tease team A +8.5 with Team B -2

If team A wins outright I win my ML and am sitting on a ticket I can hedge (going against team B on the + ML) or try to middle (going against team B with the points)

Second scenario, let's say I feel strongly about Team A -2.5 and Team B is in the night game -8

I can bet team A -2.5, and tease against team A at +8.5 with team B -2.

Provides insurance on my team A bet if it loses, but ideally I would win my Team A bet AND be going into the night game with a nice hedge/middle opp.

 

[PatsFan1283]

NFL only
Must cross two key numbers (preferably 3 and 7)

I have no concrete evidence to back it up, but I believe if you stick to those rules and apply some filtering/handicapping, it can be +ev

This was true before the bookmakers got hip to it and adjusted the odds on teasers crossing 3 and 7. It is no longer +EV.

Stanford Wong in his book "Weighing the Odds" chronicled this well with backtested data as well as explaining the odds value of each half point in the NFL.

 

[KingEleven]

Another area I've had good success with 2 teamers is when hedging or to set up a hedge opportunity.

Let's say I feel strongly about Team A +2.5, and in the night game Team B is -8 and I have no opinion on that game

I will play Team A moneyline but also tease team A +8.5 with Team B -2

If team A wins outright I win my ML and am sitting on a ticket I can hedge (going against team B on the + ML) or try to middle (going against team B with the points)

Second scenario, let's say I feel strongly about Team A -2.5 and Team B is in the night game -8

I can bet team A -2.5, and tease against team A at +8.5 with team B -2.

Provides insurance on my team A bet if it loses, but ideally I would win my Team A bet AND be going into the night game with a nice hedge/middle opp.

I just cannot wrap my head around it making sense. In your scenario, I believe you should take TEAM A and FORGET about the night game

 

[HarryCaray]

Pack, I know why, I guess sounded like dumb question...I'm just puzzled why people think the tease benefits them

I mean, it's not rocket science, obviously you have a better chance of winning any one individual side if you have those extra points in your favor. That's the allure.

You need to hit 52.4% of your bets to beat -110 vig. If you feel your chance of winning that one straight bet is > 52.4% you would view it as a +ev play.

With one individual teaser, each of the two sides needs to hit 72.4% to make it +ev versus the -110.

Teaser bettors feel that both bets in their teaser, given the extra 6 points, has a >72.4% chance of winning. More specifically, that the edge above and beyond the 72.4% mark is greater than the combined edge over the 52.4% mark of betting each individually.

 

[HarryCaray]

This was true before the bookmakers got hip to it and adjusted the odds on teasers crossing 3 and 7. It is no longer +EV.

Stanford Wong in his book "Weighing the Odds" chronicled this well with backtested data as well as explaining the odds value of each half point in the NFL.

Yeah I don't think playing them blindly is +ev. Anything done blindly is -ev or we'd all be rich.

But I think it certain situations it may be more +ev (i.e. less -ev) than trying to beat the -110 on two straight bets.

 

[PatsFan1283]

Playing them blindly was +EV though, before the odds adjusted. But that was awhile ago.

All you had to do was tease every 7 to 8.5pt dog down to 1-2.5 and it was +EV.

 

[bobbyjones2]

Have not had someone convince me in all my years of sports wagering, why it is ever a good idea to play a teaser. Have never played one in my life. Anyone agree? Who can convince me otherwise?

i wont play them the first few months of the nfl, but theres real value at the end of the year and play offs when the lines are so sharp..any chance i get to cross a few key numbers, im down to dabble...

 

[KingEleven]

I just feel like the # of times both would have covered ANYWAY and the # of times you would have went 1-1, makes it a bad wager

 

[KingEleven]

Also, let's be honest, they call it a TEASER for a reason, right?

 

[HarryCaray]

I just feel like the # of times both would have covered ANYWAY and the # of times you would have went 1-1, makes it a bad wager

Well, luckily you don't have to play them.

Also, let's be honest, they call it a TEASER for a reason, right?

Haha, I don't think the wager name has anything to do with its potential profitability or lack thereof. If it did, pleasers would be automatic money.

 

[HarryCaray]

I'll tell you what, I'll make you a friendly wager. Season long NFL, including playoffs (except super bowl).

I bet that I can pick one teaser per week, and betting flat units, show a profit by years end. We can keep one thread here where I will post each one, and we can keep the record.

I don't show a profit, you win. I do, I win.

Whaddya say?

 

[The Guesser]

Harry and others had some great advice above, of how teasers can be good pays. Some more. Strictly NFL. Don't tease College. I have some of my own teaser rules, which i don't violate, that adds further discipline. I don't tease road teams. Let downs and blow outs are more likely to happen to road teams. Find places with great teaser odds, like BetMania, Payoffs Plus, 5 Dimes. And find places that allow open teasers. The latter 2 do both. 5 Dimes shades their numbers against teaser players, but you can use that to your advantage with open teasers and hedging against a teaser somewhere else.
But if you feel teasers are not for you, don't play them.

 

[PatsFan1283]

Harry and others had some great advice above, of how teasers can be good pays. Some more. Strictly NFL. Don't tease College. I have some of my own teaser rules, which i don't violate, that adds further discipline. I don't tease road teams. Let downs and blow outs are more likely to happen to road teams. Find places with great teaser odds, like BetMania, Payoffs Plus, 5 Dimes. And find places that allow open teasers. The latter 2 do both. 5 Dimes shades their numbers against teaser players, but you can use that to your advantage with open teasers and hedging against a teaser somewhere else.
But if you feel teasers are not for you, don't play them.

Well, yeah if you find a place with teaser odds that aren't the norm.

But obviously the norm is no longer +EV.