Teaser question for sharp players?

[PatrickMcIrish]

TB +11/U54-



I know it's not "by the book" per se but any value in this play?

 

[manchild]

I was looking to tease TB+11 with Pitt+13 I like this a lot,but you know what happens when you love something alot in this sport

 

[OTK]

I personally like it because I think TB wins in a fairly low scoring game. I'm thinking around 21-20, so this teaser gives you some breathing room on both the side and total.

I rarely, if ever, play teasers but this one looks good to me.

 

[PatrickMcIrish]

I don't play a lot of teasers either, when I do they are pretty much by the book. Look to tease thru 3 and 7 and so on, standard stuff. This time I have an opinion though, really believe TB's defense will slow down the Broncos and they themselves will work hard at establishing a run game. They haven't done that this year yet, thrown the ball way too much IMO, hoping that gets turned around this week. Reading some comments from the coaches I believe it just might. Hoping both teams take the air out of the football today and do a lot of running.

Thanks for the opinions, thinking I am going to give it a shot. And I like Pitt tonight as well OTK, that's a lot of points for them (especially teased) in what should be a low scoring game.

 

[EveryGamblersDream]

I don't believe in teasing to possible ties. I would rather have 11.5 as compared to 11.

 

[PatrickMcIrish]

How you doing EGD, good to see you around. Other than the numbers involved, any thought on how this game will play out?

 

[pleasewin]

thanks for the teaser idea. i was looking into a 3 game when i stumbled onto this thread.

 

[PatrickMcIrish]

Glad to hear it man, that's what makes this forum great. I don't play many teasers like this but it sounded like it might work in this case, glad it did. After a horrendous start today I actually ended up doing pretty well. If Pitt can hang on for the cover it will be even better.


:toast::toast:

 

[quantumleap]

TB +11/U54-



I know it's not "by the book" per se but any value in this play?

6-point teasers going from +5 to +11 have hit at a 76.5% rate since 2002 (39-12-2).

6-point teasers going from 48 1/2 to 54 1/2 have hit at 76.5% rate also since 2002 (13-4-0).

If the probabilities repeat then the probability that both these would hit are 0.765 X 0.765 = 58.5%.