Teams that were at home the previous Thursday hitting 79.4% Over the following week (refreshing this thread)

[justanobserver]

Haven't seen this mentioned again since last season but here are the stats on teams that played the previous week at home on Thursday since the beginning of the 2013 season:

SU: 15-21-0 (-3.06, 41.7%) Teaser Records ATS: 17-19-0 (-2.88, 47.2%) avg line: 0.2 +6: 23-13-0 (63.9%) -6: 11-25-0 (30.6%) +10: 24-12-0 (66.7%) -10: 7-29-0 (19.4%) O/U: 27-7-2 (8.54, 79.4%) avg total: 46.7 +6: 20-16-0 (55.6%) -6: 32-3-1 (91.4%) +10: 15-20-1 (42.9%) -10: 34-2-0 (94.4%) Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 26.3 121.9 36.3 22.8 239.4 1.5 4.4 8.9 5.5 7.1 26.1 Opp 29.2 124.1 34.2 22.0 255.7 1.3 5.6 8.6 4.9 10.0 29.1 Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Dec 08, 2013 Sunday 14 2013 Ravens Vikings home 7-0 0-3 0-3 22-20 29-26 -6.0 42.0 3 -3.0 13.0 5.0 8.0 W L O 0 Dec 08, 2013 Sunday 14 2013 Lions Eagles away 0-0 8-0 6-6 6-28 20-34 3.0 53.0 -14 -11.0 1 -5.0 6.0 L L O 0 Dec 09, 2013 Monday 14 2013 Cowboys Bears away 7-7 7-17 0-11 14-10 28-45 1.5 49.0 -17 -15.5 24 4.2 19.8 L L O 0 Dec 15, 2013 Sunday 15 2013 Jaguars Bills home 3-3 7-17 3-0 7-7 20-27 3.5 43.5 -7 -3.5 3.5 0.0 3.5 L L O 0 Dec 22, 2013 Sunday 16 2013 Broncos Texans away 3-3 13-3 0-7 21-0 37-13 -10.0 52.5 24 14.0 -2.5 5.8 -8.2 W W U 0 Sep 14, 2014 view Sunday 2 2014 Seahawks Chargers away 7-3 7-17 7-7 0-3 21-30 -5.0 45.5 -9 -14.0 5.5 -4.2 9.8 L L O 0 Sep 21, 2014 view Sunday 3 2014 Ravens Browns away 3-7 7-0 7-14 6-0 23-21 -1.5 43.0 2 0.5 1 0.8 0.2 W W O 0 Sep 28, 2014 view Sunday 4 2014 Falcons Vikings away 7-14 7-10 14-3 0-14 28-41 -4.0 47.0 -13 -17.0 22.0 2.5 19.5 L L O 0 Oct 06, 2014 view Monday 5 2014 Redskins Seahawks home 0-7 7-10 3-0 7-10 17-27 7.0 45.5 -10 -3.0 -1.5 -2.2 0.8 L L U 0 Oct 12, 2014 view Sunday 6 2014 Packers Dolphins away 7-3 3-0 7-7 10-14 27-24 -2.5 47.5 3 0.5 3.5 2.0 1.5 W W O 0 Oct 20, 2014 view Monday 7 2014 Texans Steelers away 7-0 6-24 0-0 10-6 23-30 3.0 44.5 -7 -4.0 8.5 2.2 6.2 L L O 0 Oct 26, 2014 view Sunday 8 2014 Patriots Bears home 7-0 31-7 7-8 6-8 51-23 -6.5 51.5 28 21.5 22.5 22.0 0.5 W W O 0 Nov 02, 2014 view Sunday 9 2014 Broncos Patriots away 7-3 0-24 14-10 0-6 21-43 -3.0 53.0 -22 -25.0 11 -7.0 18.0 L L O 0 Nov 10, 2014 view Monday 10 2014 Panthers Eagles away 7-17 0-14 0-7 14-7 21-45 7.0 48.0 -24 -17 18.0 0.5 17.5 L L O 0 Nov 16, 2014 view Sunday 11 2014 Bengals Saints away 7-3 6-0 7-0 7-7 27-10 7.0 51.0 17 24.0 -14.0 5.0 -19.0 W W U 0 Nov 23, 2014 view Sunday 12 2014 Dolphins Broncos away 7-3 14-14 7-0 8-22 36-39 7.0 49.0 -3 4.0 26.0 15.0 11.0 L W O 0 Nov 30, 2014 view Sunday 13 2014 Raiders Rams away 0-21 0-17 0-0 0-14 0-52 7.0 42.5 -52 -45.0 9.5 -17.8 27.2 L L O 0 Dec 04, 2014 view Thursday 14 2014 Cowboys Bears away 0-0 14-7 21-0 6-21 41-28 -3.5 51.5 13 9.5 17.5 13.5 4.0 W W O 0 Dec 07, 2014 view Sunday 14 2014 Lions Buccaneers home 7-0 10-10 10-0 7-7 34-17 -10.0 41.5 17 7.0 9.5 8.2 1.2 W W O 0 Dec 07, 2014 view Sunday 14 2014 Fortyniners Raiders away 7-3 3-7 3-7 0-7 13-24 -8.0 40.5 -11 -19.0 -3.5 -11.2 7.8 L L U 0 Dec 15, 2014 view Monday 15 2014 Bears Saints home 0-0 0-14 0-10 15-7 15-31 3.0 54.0 -16 -13.0 -8.0 -10.5 2.5 L L U 0 Dec 21, 2014 view Sunday 16 2014 Rams Giants home 3-10 10-10 7-14 7-3 27-37 -5.5 44.5 -10 -15.5 19.5 2.0 17.5 L L O 0 Dec 28, 2014 view Sunday 17 2014 Jaguars Texans away 10-7 0-7 7-0 0-9 17-23 8.0 40.0 -6 2.0 0 1.0 -1.0 L W P 0 Sep 20, 2015 Sunday 2 2015 Patriots Bills away 14-7 10-6 13-0 3-19 40-32 0.0 45.0 8 8 27 17.5 9.5 W W O 0 Sep 28, 2015 Monday 3 2015 Chiefs Packers away 6.5 49.0 Obviously the play here is on the over of the Chiefs - Packers game Monday night. It was an easy winner last week.

 

[JackStraw420]

Did you back check that any further, or did the trend just start picking up steam in that timeframe? Just curious.

:smoking:

 

[Bad_Cat]

Need many, many more games for it to have any merit.

 

[a4u2fear]

Need many, many more games for it to have any merit.

um guys, i just checked this in 2013, and, i shit you not, here are the results:

14-3

one of those losses was by 1 point, and I counted all (3) thanksgiving day games, all 3 were wins with the over the following week.


so what is the deal here? the home teams prepare so much for primetime that the next week their preparation is less and/or they are so mentally exhausted their defense is worse?

 

[a4u2fear]

this is also, 1-0 this year with NE from week 1 and hit over vs buffalo

 

[TheComputerGroup]

Hmm.....very interesting!

Like the Over Monday night.

 

[justanobserver]

Need many, many more games for it to have any merit.

going back to 2010 it is 49-20-3 for a 71% hit rate

going back to 2006 when TNF started it is 66-38-3 hitting at63.5%

Btw i am not claiming to have found this trend I think it was sandman or something that was tracking this from last year

 

[justanobserver]

um guys, i just checked this in 2013, and, i shit you not, here are the results:

14-3

one of those losses was by 1 point, and I counted all (3) thanksgiving day games, all 3 were wins with the over the following week.


so what is the deal here? the home teams prepare so much for primetime that the next week their preparation is less and/or they are so mentally exhausted their defense is worse?

Maybe they have a bit more time to relax and hang with their family and lose focus? And maybe a few extra days to gameplay offensively, whoknows

 

[MoneyMiller]

Good thread Jao

 

[WormyPix]

Great information. This is exactly what the RX needs. Thanks JAO.

 

[skoda]

Great information. This is exactly what the RX needs. Thanks JAO.

Looks like a trend that can be worth following my pic was GB/Under earlier after seeing Favorite/Under 8-4 Sunday? Could be 8-5. It's not, what we know but what will it be? KC/O or GB/U?? Probably KC/U or GB/O......

Officials are screwing up not following rules! I see so many non-calls of holding its..........

 

[Biz]

2014: 13-4-1
2013: 13-3-1
2012: 9-7
2011: 4-6
2010: 9-0-1
2009: 4-5
2008: 4-6
2007: 6-2
2006: 3-5

 

[chonce]

So the Giants +6 seems inviting. I thought that line would be -3.5 so I was betting it anyway for 2 units at least. I also like the under.

 

[justanobserver]

Easy over winner

2-0 this season.

Get that money on Giants boys.

 

[TheComputerGroup]

Good thread man, I told my brother about this trend & he loaded up on Gbay, Over & parlayed & teased the Packers & Over.........

 

[justanobserver]

Thoughts on the Giants - Bills game? It sure doesnt look like an over but man this trend is strong.

 

[MoneyMiller]

looks good to me, right?

 

[justanobserver]

Trend on the Bills going over also:

Teams coming off of two straight overs in non-conf games where there opponents previous game was Thursday:

HF and p:O and pp:O and NCONF = NCONF and op:day = Thursday and season >= 2002
SU: 12-5-0 (12.71, 70.6%) Teaser Records ATS: 12-5-0 (7.68, 70.6%) avg line: -5.0 +6: 12-5-0 (70.6%) -6: 10-7-0 (58.8%) +10: 13-4-0 (76.5%) -10: 7-10-0 (41.2%) O/U: 13-4-0 (6.82, 76.5%) avg total: 43.1 +6: 8-7-2 (53.3%) -6: 15-2-0 (88.2%) +10: 6-11-0 (35.3%) -10: 15-2-0 (88.2%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 28.4 119.5 32.7 19.8 245.8 1.5 5.8 9.5 6.4 9.4 31.3 Opp 24.8 100.8 35.4 19.9 211.5 2.1 5.2 5.4 3.3 4.6 18.6
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Dec 08, 2002 Sunday 14 2002 Cardinals Lions home 7-14 7-3 3-3 3-0 23-20 -1.0 39.5 3 2.0 3.5 2.8 0.8 W W O 1 Dec 07, 2003 Sunday 14 2003 Patriots Dolphins home 3-0 0-0 0-0 9-0 12-0 -3.0 33.5 12 9.0 -21.5 -6.2 -15.2 W W U 0 Dec 07, 2003 Sunday 14 2003 Eagles Cowboys home 0-3 10-7 9-0 17-0 36-10 -5.5 36.5 26 20.5 9.5 15.0 -5.5 W W O 0 Dec 06, 2004 Monday 13 2004 Seahawks Cowboys home 14-3 0-16 3-10 22-14 39-43 -7.0 42.5 -4 -11.0 39.5 14.2 25.2 L L O 0 Dec 31, 2006 Sunday 17 2006 Bears Packers home 0-13 0-10 7-0 0-3 7-26 -3.0 36.5 -19 -22.0 -3.5 -12.8 9.2 L L U 0 Dec 02, 2007 Sunday 13 2007 Vikings Lions home 7-3 28-7 7-0 0-0 42-10 -3.5 45.0 32 28.5 7.0 17.8 -10.8 W W O 0 Dec 30, 2007 Sunday 17 2007 Cardinals Rams home 3-3 21-3 7-13 17-0 48-19 -6.5 48.0 29 22.5 19.0 20.8 -1.8 W W O 0 Nov 30, 2008 Sunday 13 2008 Patriots Steelers home 7-3 3-7 0-13 0-10 10-33 -1.5 40.0 -23 -24.5 3.0 -10.8 13.8 L L O 0 Dec 07, 2008 Sunday 14 2008 Steelers Cowboys home 0-0 3-3 0-10 17-0 20-13 -3.5 38.0 7 3.5 -5.0 -0.8 -4.2 W W U 0 Dec 06, 2009 Sunday 13 2009 Steelers Raiders home 3-3 7-3 0-0 14-21 24-27 -14.5 37.0 -3 -17.5 14.0 -1.8 15.8 L L O 0 Dec 06, 2010 Monday 13 2010 Patriots Jets home 17-0 7-3 7-0 14-0 45-3 -3.5 44.5 42 38.5 3.5 21.0 -17.5 W W O 0 Nov 20, 2011 Sunday 11 2011 Bears Chargers home 3-3 14-7 14-7 0-3 31-20 -4.0 45.0 11 7.0 6.0 6.5 -0.5 W W O 0 Nov 11, 2012 Sunday 10 2012 Buccaneers Chargers home 7-14 10-7 7-0 10-3 34-24 -3.0 47.5 10 7 10.5 8.8 1.8 W W O 0 Nov 18, 2012 Sunday 11 2012 Patriots Colts home 7-14 17-3 14-0 21-7 59-24 -9.5 54.0 35 25.5 29 27.2 1.8 W W O 0 Dec 23, 2012 Sunday 16 2012 Steelers Bengals home 0-7 7-3 3-0 0-3 10-13 -3.5 41.5 -3 -6.5 -18.5 -12.5 -6.0 L L U 0 Sep 29, 2013 Sunday 4 2013 Broncos Eagles home 14-3 7-10 21-0 10-7 52-20 -10.5 58.0 32 21.5 14.0 17.8 -3.8 W W O 0 Nov 24, 2013 Sunday 12 2013 Cardinals Colts home 7-3 20-0 7-0 6-8 40-11 -2.5 45.0 29 26.5 6.0 16.2 -10.2 W W O 0 Oct 04, 2015 Sunday 4 2015 Bills Giants home -6.0 47.0

 

[d3nv3r]

Thanks for the info justanobserver. If I may ask what did you use to generate that stat sheet? thanks (I love to crunch stats and trends, that could come in handy)

 

[justanobserver]

Thanks for the info justanobserver. If I may ask what did you use to generate that stat sheet? thanks (I love to crunch stats and trends, that could come in handy)

Just google "SDQL" there are plenty of sites that offer connections to the sports data query language, all you have to do is learn the variables to use. For me I looked at rolltide's syntax and kind of back engineered it. It helps if you have prior experience writing code in logical languages. As you can see at the tp of each one of my posts i include the query that i have used, for the most recent one it its this:

HF and p:O and pp:O and NCONF = NCONF and op:day = Thursday and season >= 2002 (home favorite and previous game over and previous previous game over and non-conference and opponents previous game played on thursday and season >= 2002) Let me know if you have any other questions.​