Team with higher QB rating wins 82% of the games

[uscmd]

Last year, a group of number crunchers spent a great deal of super computer time looking at every single metric in the galaxy of NFL football. Which numbers correlate best with winning. It turned out that in 82% of the games the team with the higher qb rating.....won. Wow! Got me rethinking lots of bits of data, some of which I'll share below. Check out "Correlation of victory metrics" study, and you can see the info at cold hard football facts.com. I started to type better for newbies......but I think this stuff is worth reading for anyone whose betting. Using total qbr, which I think is what they used.....here are a few of the closer games.


SD v Mia ............ Rivers 85.5 Tannehill 54.9
Phil v Hou ..........Foles 63.1 Fitzpatrick 48.9
Bal v Pit .............Flacco 67.7 Big Ben 72.7

data from espn.


LINE OFF. Here its game net, line off

Most of the games are unremarkable, combining the two teams you end up with +20, 25 or so.

3 games stand out.

Bal v Pit ... Bal is +70 for the year, Pit is +1. So the net is Bal +69

Cle v TB... Cle is +69, TB -70 So together a revealing Cle +139 this w/e

KC v Jets... KC +68 and the jets -60, making KC +138 this week

you might prefer these numbers as stand alone bits of data. I have found together its simply another
way of highlighting games that are one sided, and worth further inspection.


Line off.... 5 best

Bal +70
KC +68
SD +45
Dal +44
Ind +40


Bottom 5

TB -70
Jets -60
SL -49
Jax -43
Ten -42


Another piece of data.......Give away/takeaway

take/give net

best

NE +11
Ariz +9
GB +8
Buf +7 the bottom two, bit of a surprise
Cle +7


Worst

Jets -13
Jax -10
Was -8 no surprises here
Phil -7
Oak -6



I'll bet we all have different bits of data we use in handicapping. Anyone else want to share?


BOL 2 all.

 

[indiana]

USMC/D..............good info............thank you.............indy

 

[theMadMan]

Very interesting........

No Doubt with all the rules continually being slanted towards the offense "the better QB'd teams are winning more games?

Love to see this data over a longer sample of time

Thanks for the insight.

 

[RichD+]

I have been using the line off ever since AA showed us....Something i noticed a few years back is when teams are :

+ 55 or more L/O fade them ATS
-55 or more L/O play them ATS

Dont have my notes with me right now but last week Colts and Balt were both >=+ 55 and lost ats.

 

[RichD+]

I have been using the line off ever since AA showed us....Something i noticed a few years back is when teams are :

+ 55 or more L/O fade them ATS
-55 or more L/O play them ATS

Dont have my notes with me right now but last week Colts and Balt were both >=+ 55 and lost ats.

I will be playing jets/bucs and pitt this week

 

[jgm4661]

That is a good ATS stat. PR is highly correlated. You have to compare though the stats for PR for ex against the PR allowed by the opposing D and adj for hfa and strength of schedule. Doing that in the SD /MIA game for PR (not qbr) has the teams fairly similar actually, both around 90.

Some other simple strong ATS correlations are total pts and rushing yds. PTs >=20 is 70%. Rising as pts rise

Same for rushing yds. RY > 114 is 68%, again better for the dog and it goes up dramatically as RY >

Again compare against what the D allows w hfa , sos

 

[LecheMocha]

Interesting stats.

 

[ChiefMuzz]

Ussally the team that host the best QB rating AFTER the game is played, and the rating for that particular game does win.. I haven't had any success flat out betting on QB ratings. That a small sample size of 32 years

 

[1Magnet]

Does this mean that if blindly bet every team with the better qb rating, I can expect to win 75%+ of my ML bets. Is there a link to this data? I couldn't find on a Google search

 

[rolltide]

Does this mean that if blindly bet every team with the better qb rating, I can expect to win 75%+ of my ML bets. Is there a link to this data? I couldn't find on a Google search

no, it means if you were able to bet a game after it was over and took the team with higher qb rating you'd have won those bets

case in point....Pitt came into Jets game with the #1 qb rating in nfl vs the dead-last #32 jets qb rating. you won't have a bigger disparity this season. but vick's rating for the actual game was far above ben's so that will go down as another winner but how could you have possibly predicted that vick would out-rate ben? was #1 vs #32....

 

[packer2012]

Big Ben may have had a "rape-date" the night before and was slowed a little!