I have been asked to come here and make play's/write-ups. I am going to start for Thursdays games. I love to cap over/unders and that is what I will do along with sides when they catch my eye. I will have a * system in which it will be 1-5* with 5* = $10 for me at the moment, 4*=$7.50 and 3* = $5. (Minimum bet is $5 at the book so only making plays I am confident in right now). I would also like to mention I have started a challenge to myself and just deposited the minimum amount of $50 into a new account(reason for such small plays). My challenge is to get that to whatever I can. I just started yesterday and am at $50.22. That is the total I am going start with and a 0-0 record. So, on to some gambling. And Good Luck.
Already looked over tomorrows cbb card. I have about 10 leans right now. I will go back and cap them tonight and tomorrow. But I am going to say check out the Washington/UCLA game. If your book has <= 150 book the OVER now. It opened here at mine at 148, it went to 151 and now 150.5. I am going to wait till tomorrow before the games start and see, if not I am buying points to get at least 150, but defiantly book it hours before the tip off since it is a late game people will realize it and jump all over the over trying to chase and raise the number. Also, another great lean is the San Diego/St. Mary's under 123. It opened here at 123 went down to 121.5 and back up to 123, I would wait on this. Almost positive those two will be a play for me tomorrow, but will cap them and see for absolute sure, if nothing crazy comes up in my findings. I have not capped the games yet but will soon. Good Luck. I will have write-ups for these games also, or at least try if I can time and most likely will.
Not being a smartass. Just you came in here acting like UCLA can't score and what the hell am I saying it is going over 150 attitude. It's all cool. I wish I could get it at 151 right now but at my book it still shows 153. Might lay something small on it now and see where it goes from there. Got the write up coming right out.
5* Washington/UCLA o150.5
Trends:
- Washington 9-0 O/U off a win against conference rival
- 5-1 O/U against team with winning record after 15 games
- 6-0 O/U against defensive team allowing <=64 ppg
- 6-2 on the road
- UCLA 9-5 O/U at home
- 3-0 O/U off a loss against conference rival
- 9-1 when playing against a team with winning record after 15 games
- 3-0 against offenses scoring greater than 77 ppg
The top 2 scoring teams in the PAC-10 go at it while Washington is also 2nd in the league in most points against. UCLA has gone OVER the total 9 of the last 10 games with average of 76ppg. Also going OVER 10 of the last 13 which is all of conference games. While Washington has gone OVER 9 of the last 10 games with average of 84 ppg and OVER 11 of last 13 which is all of conference games. Scoring below there averages still produces an OVER result. Of UCLA's last 10 games, 4 have gone OVER the total of 150. While 7 of the last 10 Washington games have gone over 150. Washington is shooting 46.5% FG last 4 games and when UCLA allows >=45% from the field the over is 8-3 this year. Vice versa, UCLA last 4 games they have shot a well 50.1% FG and when Washington allows >=45% from the field (is 5% less than UCLA average and giving Washington def. more credit) the over is 7-2 and ALL 7 of those overs were greater than 150. Washington in conference is averaging 47.9% from the field in away games and 80.5ppg in those games. UCLA at home, in conference, is averaging 53.1% from the field and 79ppg while only allowing 44% from the field. Even when Washington shoots <=44% FG(UCLA's home defense average) the over is 3-0 and all 3 times the over has exceeded 150. UCLA has averaged 76ppg the last 4 games and when Washington opponents score >=75ppg, the OVER is 9-0 and all 9 games have gone over 150.
Trends:
- Washington 9-0 O/U off a win against conference rival
- 5-1 O/U against team with winning record after 15 games
- 6-0 O/U against defensive team allowing <=64 ppg
- 6-2 on the road
- UCLA 9-5 O/U at home
- 3-0 O/U off a loss against conference rival
- 9-1 when playing against a team with winning record after 15 games
- 3-0 against offenses scoring greater than 77 ppg
The top 2 scoring teams in the PAC-10 go at it while Washington is also 2nd in the league in most points against. UCLA has gone OVER the total 9 of the last 10 games with average of 76ppg. Also going OVER 10 of the last 13 which is all of conference games. While Washington has gone OVER 9 of the last 10 games with average of 84 ppg and OVER 11 of last 13 which is all of conference games. Scoring below there averages still produces an OVER result. Of UCLA's last 10 games, 4 have gone OVER the total of 150. While 7 of the last 10 Washington games have gone over 150. Washington is shooting 46.5% FG last 4 games and when UCLA allows >=45% from the field the over is 8-3 this year. Vice versa, UCLA last 4 games they have shot a well 50.1% FG and when Washington allows >=45% from the field (is 5% less than UCLA average and giving Washington def. more credit) the over is 7-2 and ALL 7 of those overs were greater than 150. Washington in conference is averaging 47.9% from the field in away games and 80.5ppg in those games. UCLA at home, in conference, is averaging 53.1% from the field and 79ppg while only allowing 44% from the field. Even when Washington shoots <=44% FG(UCLA's home defense average) the over is 3-0 and all 3 times the over has exceeded 150. UCLA has averaged 76ppg the last 4 games and when Washington opponents score >=75ppg, the OVER is 9-0 and all 9 games have gone over 150.
19-February
4* Western Kentucky/Arkansas-Little Rock o132
Trends:
- W. Kentucky is 3-1 o/u after allowing 80 points
- 4-4 o/u as an underdog
- Ark-LR is 11-1 o/u at home
- 4-0 o/u when revenging a road loss vs. opponent
- 11-5 as a favorite
- 6-4 when playing against a team with a winning record
One thing I noticed is every time W. Kentucky has lost ATS AND the game went over, the following game went OVER. This has happened 4 times this year for W. Kentucky and that is the situation in today's game. Ar-LR is shooting 47% from the field the last 4 games and when W. Kentucky allows >=45% FG the OVER is 7-4. And in all 7 of those games the total exceeded 132. Also, out of those 7 games 6 of them were away games, which is what that are in this game is the away team. W. Kentucky has averaged 44% FG last 4 games and when AR-LR allows >=40%FG(saying W. Kentucky shoots bad by taking off 4% from their average) the OVER is 11-2 and 8 of those 11 games were at home, which they are the home team today. AR-LR last 4 home games, they have gave up 42.9%FG while W. Kentucky has shot 48.5% in their last 4 away games. W. Kentucky has only been held under 43% shooting 6 times in the last 20 games. Which gives W. Kentucky a higher percentage bet that they will shoot higher than the 43% FG AR-LR is allowing at home which is why I love the OVER chances. And as I mentioned before, if W. Kentucky happens to shoot at 40%(which is unlikely give the facts above) the OVER is still 11-2 when AR-lR allows >=40% shooting.
4* Western Kentucky/Arkansas-Little Rock o132
Trends:
- W. Kentucky is 3-1 o/u after allowing 80 points
- 4-4 o/u as an underdog
- Ark-LR is 11-1 o/u at home
- 4-0 o/u when revenging a road loss vs. opponent
- 11-5 as a favorite
- 6-4 when playing against a team with a winning record
One thing I noticed is every time W. Kentucky has lost ATS AND the game went over, the following game went OVER. This has happened 4 times this year for W. Kentucky and that is the situation in today's game. Ar-LR is shooting 47% from the field the last 4 games and when W. Kentucky allows >=45% FG the OVER is 7-4. And in all 7 of those games the total exceeded 132. Also, out of those 7 games 6 of them were away games, which is what that are in this game is the away team. W. Kentucky has averaged 44% FG last 4 games and when AR-LR allows >=40%FG(saying W. Kentucky shoots bad by taking off 4% from their average) the OVER is 11-2 and 8 of those 11 games were at home, which they are the home team today. AR-LR last 4 home games, they have gave up 42.9%FG while W. Kentucky has shot 48.5% in their last 4 away games. W. Kentucky has only been held under 43% shooting 6 times in the last 20 games. Which gives W. Kentucky a higher percentage bet that they will shoot higher than the 43% FG AR-LR is allowing at home which is why I love the OVER chances. And as I mentioned before, if W. Kentucky happens to shoot at 40%(which is unlikely give the facts above) the OVER is still 11-2 when AR-lR allows >=40% shooting.
19-February
3* St. Bonaventure(+3) at George Washington
Trends:
- St. Bon is 8-0 ATS on the road
- 9-4 as an underdog
- 3-0 in February
- GW is 7-9 ATS overall
- 3-4 ATS as favorite
- 5-6 ATS against winning record teams
St. Bon is on the road once again where they are 8-0 ATS. They are also 4-0 ATS the last 4 games. They are 7-4 ATS in conference play and averaging 73 ppg in away conference games. And when GW allows >=70ppg they are 1-6-1 ATS. GW is averaging 68.4 ppg at home in conference play and when St. Bon allows <=ppg they are 10-3 ATS. GW is averaging 45.5% shooting the last 4 games and when St. Bon allows <=46% shooting from the field they are 11-3-1 ATS. St. Bon is 1-5 ATS when opponents shoot above that 46% shooting. But, GW has only done it 3 times in the last 10 games and 2 of those were away games for them and only 7 times in the last 22 games which 5 of those were away games for them, so they have only shot above 46% from the field 3 times at home this year. While St. Bon is giving up 41% shooting the last 4 games and only 39.3% shooting in all away conference games. So, I will take my chances of GW shooting below 46% from the field when St. Bon has only allowed opponents to shoot above 46% from the field 6 times in 24 games and 4 times in the 11 conference games. There is a great chance GW stays under 46%(which is above their average) shooting after mentioning those facts. All signs show St. Bon defense being the reason they pull this out as a slight underdog.
- I usually buy the .5 to get the hook when it is at 3, so I will post my tickets once I place the bets tomorrow who what I got and at what line. I have placed a small bet on ucla/wash over already incase it goes up more but will put more on it tomorrow.
3* St. Bonaventure(+3) at George Washington
Trends:
- St. Bon is 8-0 ATS on the road
- 9-4 as an underdog
- 3-0 in February
- GW is 7-9 ATS overall
- 3-4 ATS as favorite
- 5-6 ATS against winning record teams
St. Bon is on the road once again where they are 8-0 ATS. They are also 4-0 ATS the last 4 games. They are 7-4 ATS in conference play and averaging 73 ppg in away conference games. And when GW allows >=70ppg they are 1-6-1 ATS. GW is averaging 68.4 ppg at home in conference play and when St. Bon allows <=ppg they are 10-3 ATS. GW is averaging 45.5% shooting the last 4 games and when St. Bon allows <=46% shooting from the field they are 11-3-1 ATS. St. Bon is 1-5 ATS when opponents shoot above that 46% shooting. But, GW has only done it 3 times in the last 10 games and 2 of those were away games for them and only 7 times in the last 22 games which 5 of those were away games for them, so they have only shot above 46% from the field 3 times at home this year. While St. Bon is giving up 41% shooting the last 4 games and only 39.3% shooting in all away conference games. So, I will take my chances of GW shooting below 46% from the field when St. Bon has only allowed opponents to shoot above 46% from the field 6 times in 24 games and 4 times in the 11 conference games. There is a great chance GW stays under 46%(which is above their average) shooting after mentioning those facts. All signs show St. Bon defense being the reason they pull this out as a slight underdog.
- I usually buy the .5 to get the hook when it is at 3, so I will post my tickets once I place the bets tomorrow who what I got and at what line. I have placed a small bet on ucla/wash over already incase it goes up more but will put more on it tomorrow.
19-February
3* California (-6) at Oregon
Trends:
-California is 14-7 ATS overall
- 8-3 ATS as favorites
- 7-5 in conference
- 6-1 after scoring 80 points
-Oregon is 7-17 ATS overall
- 4-13 as underdog
- 3-8 at home
- 3-10 in conference
The first meeting between these 2 was won by Cal at home by 7. Oregon had 7 more offensive rebounds and 3 less turnovers which lead to 9 more shots being taken by Oregon. That is one reason this score was closer than it should have been. Cal is shooting 48% from the field the last 4 games and averaging 75.3ppg in those games. Oregon has only held there opponent to under 45% shooting 1 time the last 15 games and going 4-11 ATS in those 15. In those 11 loses ATS the spread, 9 of those they lost by double digits and 2 others by 9, which leaves only 4 games out of the last 15 where they have kept their opponent within single digits of them. Oregon has shot a horrible 37.7% avergage the last 4 games and shooting just 40.8% from the field at home in conference. And when Cal holds their opponent to <=42% from the field they are 7-0 ATS, so the chances are very much in Cal's favor. Oregon is allowing a horrible 52.7% shooting the last 4 games and 49.2% from the field at home conference play. When Cal shoots >=49% from the field they are 8-2 ATS. cal is averaging 68.4ppg in conference play and when Oregon allows their opponents to score >=68ppg they are 2-10 ATS. With these numbers, I believe Oregon has no chance the way their defense has played.
3* California (-6) at Oregon
Trends:
-California is 14-7 ATS overall
- 8-3 ATS as favorites
- 7-5 in conference
- 6-1 after scoring 80 points
-Oregon is 7-17 ATS overall
- 4-13 as underdog
- 3-8 at home
- 3-10 in conference
The first meeting between these 2 was won by Cal at home by 7. Oregon had 7 more offensive rebounds and 3 less turnovers which lead to 9 more shots being taken by Oregon. That is one reason this score was closer than it should have been. Cal is shooting 48% from the field the last 4 games and averaging 75.3ppg in those games. Oregon has only held there opponent to under 45% shooting 1 time the last 15 games and going 4-11 ATS in those 15. In those 11 loses ATS the spread, 9 of those they lost by double digits and 2 others by 9, which leaves only 4 games out of the last 15 where they have kept their opponent within single digits of them. Oregon has shot a horrible 37.7% avergage the last 4 games and shooting just 40.8% from the field at home in conference. And when Cal holds their opponent to <=42% from the field they are 7-0 ATS, so the chances are very much in Cal's favor. Oregon is allowing a horrible 52.7% shooting the last 4 games and 49.2% from the field at home conference play. When Cal shoots >=49% from the field they are 8-2 ATS. cal is averaging 68.4ppg in conference play and when Oregon allows their opponents to score >=68ppg they are 2-10 ATS. With these numbers, I believe Oregon has no chance the way their defense has played.
19-February
3* Loyola-Marymount/Gonzaga o134
Trends:
- LM is 6-4 o/u as underdog >=12.5
- 6-4 o/u in conference
- 5-1 o/u revenging a home loss of >=20 points
- 5-0 o/u against defensive teams allowing <=64ppg the last 15 games and 8-2 o/u all year
- Zags 6-4 o/u in conference
- 3-1 o/u in February
- 4-1 against losing record teams
- 4-1 against offensive teams that score <=64 ppg
Last game the total went to 152 with Zags putting up 93 at LM. Now they are at home shooting for 100. Not a lot of leans towards the over for the Zags, but lately 3 of their last 4 games have gone OVER and they have played the lower four teams in the conference San Fran(1-10) and scored 78 and went OVER, Loyalo-Marymount(1-9) scored 93 and total went OVER, San Diego(5-6) scored 64 and went under but like to mention SD has the best defense in the league and lowest points against at 60ppg which is 2 below any other team. Also, the total was 111 in this game, which is the losest total the Zags have had all year which shows SD defense. And then Pepperdine(5-5) and scored 83 and went OVER. So, when playing lower tier teams they put up the points to make the OVER. LM average is just 56.3ppg in the last 4 games while Zags are giving up 72.3 ppg the last 4 games. LM against the top 3 scoring teams in the conference(St. Marys, Gonzaga, and Portland who are the only teams that score 70+ ppg in the conference) average 82ppg against them. I believe Zags will put up 80+ and if LM has there average of just 56 points the over is set, that is not taking into consideration the 72 ppg the Zags have been giving up the last 4 games.
3* Loyola-Marymount/Gonzaga o134
Trends:
- LM is 6-4 o/u as underdog >=12.5
- 6-4 o/u in conference
- 5-1 o/u revenging a home loss of >=20 points
- 5-0 o/u against defensive teams allowing <=64ppg the last 15 games and 8-2 o/u all year
- Zags 6-4 o/u in conference
- 3-1 o/u in February
- 4-1 against losing record teams
- 4-1 against offensive teams that score <=64 ppg
Last game the total went to 152 with Zags putting up 93 at LM. Now they are at home shooting for 100. Not a lot of leans towards the over for the Zags, but lately 3 of their last 4 games have gone OVER and they have played the lower four teams in the conference San Fran(1-10) and scored 78 and went OVER, Loyalo-Marymount(1-9) scored 93 and total went OVER, San Diego(5-6) scored 64 and went under but like to mention SD has the best defense in the league and lowest points against at 60ppg which is 2 below any other team. Also, the total was 111 in this game, which is the losest total the Zags have had all year which shows SD defense. And then Pepperdine(5-5) and scored 83 and went OVER. So, when playing lower tier teams they put up the points to make the OVER. LM average is just 56.3ppg in the last 4 games while Zags are giving up 72.3 ppg the last 4 games. LM against the top 3 scoring teams in the conference(St. Marys, Gonzaga, and Portland who are the only teams that score 70+ ppg in the conference) average 82ppg against them. I believe Zags will put up 80+ and if LM has there average of just 56 points the over is set, that is not taking into consideration the 72 ppg the Zags have been giving up the last 4 games.
I usually do not cap NBA. I love CBB. I would take a look at it but I am leaving and will be on the road for about 2-3 hours. I should be back at my computer before game time, but I will be concentrating on the 10et CBB games because I already have leans on Stanford -4, USC/Wash St. o112, N. Col/Port St. o142, Hawaii +4, and SD/St. Mary o122.5. I will try to take a look at the NBA game if I get a chance. Good Luck everyone. I will try to get back before the 10et CBB gametimes and post some solid plays.
Nice night tonight. It would not let me on therx tonight. As I mentioned earlier in my leans, the plays that came official were Hawaii +4 and St. Mary's u123 which both were 3* and went 1-1. Small card tomorrow, but will look to it and see if we can get something out of it. Also, like to mention I increased the $50.22 to $94.75 with the 5 plays I have posted including the 2 that I did not get around to post, also a 3 team parlay that included 3 of the 5 games I posted. And 2 2H plays with Hawaii +2.5 and St. Mary's u66.5 which brought my total of my account to $94.75. I am just giving this information out as I want people to know because this is a challenge to me.
