In my opinion there are definately advantages and disadvantages to both sides. Game 1, for instance, I think that Cole Hamels comes into Tropicana and comes away with a win. Maybe that is a square way to look at it, but that is my opinion.
In my mind, Philly takes a 1-0 lead and goes back to Philly 1-1 or in TB's worst case, 2-0, which is HIGHLY unlikely. Getting that first game, though, will prove huge and I think it will be the Rays fighting for their WS lives by game six.
I love the Rays as a team, how can't you? However, Philly is just as dangerous and if, and thats a big if, Brett Myers can come out slinging, I think the Phils have a great shot, especially at +150. I might wait to see if it gets up to the +160 or +165 range because I see the public putting tons of money on the Rays.
Tell me what you think, I'm always looking for different points of view/angles. Lets try to talk this out by tomorrow night.
Prof. Hinsley
In my mind, Philly takes a 1-0 lead and goes back to Philly 1-1 or in TB's worst case, 2-0, which is HIGHLY unlikely. Getting that first game, though, will prove huge and I think it will be the Rays fighting for their WS lives by game six.
I love the Rays as a team, how can't you? However, Philly is just as dangerous and if, and thats a big if, Brett Myers can come out slinging, I think the Phils have a great shot, especially at +150. I might wait to see if it gets up to the +160 or +165 range because I see the public putting tons of money on the Rays.
Tell me what you think, I'm always looking for different points of view/angles. Lets try to talk this out by tomorrow night.
Prof. Hinsley
Prof Hinsley:
Yes, I agree that the Phils are dangerous and could split games in Tampa. But there are a couple things that stand out to me as a crucial difference between the two teams:
1) Pitching. The Phils have Hamels, and the rest of their staff has been solid. But Tampa's pitching is ridiculously good, and even though they had a couple letdowns vs. Boston they still got gems from their starters when they were needed. And I highly doubt that Balfour will have another meltdown like he did in Game 5 of the ALCS. This will be key in quieting Philly's bats.
2) (and maybe even more important than #1)...Tampa is on a huge high right now after what they just went through in the ALCS. Philly had a relatively smooth road to the WS, whereas Tampa has had to overcome much more as a team to get here emotionally. I just can't see how they drop the ball (no pun intended) after the thrilling win they pulled off against Boston. I would hate to bet against a team like that.
Now in fairness to Philly, their hitters can go off at any time and if they get decent pitching, they are as good as anyone. But I'm looking back at their playoffs so far....they beat a Milwaukee team that rode a weak September showing into the playoffs, and really wasn't a match for the Phils. Then they played the Dodgers who were IMO overhyped after beating those damned Cubs. I don't think either of those opponents matches the quality of a team like the Rays on either sides of the ball.
Overall, the Rays have put in numerous brilliant performances, and when they didn't, they had the BALLS to dig down deep and win when it counted. Add home field advantage to the mix and I don't see Tampa losing.
The reason I made this thread however is because I'm seriously considering making a HUGE bet, way beyond what I normally would. And I'd rather have some intelligence discourse about it first instead of catching a head of steem as I call it and plopping down a big bet just on my personal faith in a team alone.
Yes, I agree that the Phils are dangerous and could split games in Tampa. But there are a couple things that stand out to me as a crucial difference between the two teams:
1) Pitching. The Phils have Hamels, and the rest of their staff has been solid. But Tampa's pitching is ridiculously good, and even though they had a couple letdowns vs. Boston they still got gems from their starters when they were needed. And I highly doubt that Balfour will have another meltdown like he did in Game 5 of the ALCS. This will be key in quieting Philly's bats.
2) (and maybe even more important than #1)...Tampa is on a huge high right now after what they just went through in the ALCS. Philly had a relatively smooth road to the WS, whereas Tampa has had to overcome much more as a team to get here emotionally. I just can't see how they drop the ball (no pun intended) after the thrilling win they pulled off against Boston. I would hate to bet against a team like that.
Now in fairness to Philly, their hitters can go off at any time and if they get decent pitching, they are as good as anyone. But I'm looking back at their playoffs so far....they beat a Milwaukee team that rode a weak September showing into the playoffs, and really wasn't a match for the Phils. Then they played the Dodgers who were IMO overhyped after beating those damned Cubs. I don't think either of those opponents matches the quality of a team like the Rays on either sides of the ball.
Overall, the Rays have put in numerous brilliant performances, and when they didn't, they had the BALLS to dig down deep and win when it counted. Add home field advantage to the mix and I don't see Tampa losing.
The reason I made this thread however is because I'm seriously considering making a HUGE bet, way beyond what I normally would. And I'd rather have some intelligence discourse about it first instead of catching a head of steem as I call it and plopping down a big bet just on my personal faith in a team alone.
Wager type : Parlay
Select #1 : MLB Baseball (World Series - Winner)
Tampa Bay Rays (Series) 10/22/2008 8:20 PM - (EST)
Money Line -148 for Game
*** Fixed Price ***
Select #2 : Politics Other Sports (US Presidential Election Winner - November 4th 2008)
B.Obama wins Presidential Election 11/4/2008 6:05 AM - (EST)
Money Line -750 for Game
Amount : Risking 148.00 To Win 133.07 USD
Select #1 : MLB Baseball (World Series - Winner)
Tampa Bay Rays (Series) 10/22/2008 8:20 PM - (EST)
Money Line -148 for Game
*** Fixed Price ***
Select #2 : Politics Other Sports (US Presidential Election Winner - November 4th 2008)
B.Obama wins Presidential Election 11/4/2008 6:05 AM - (EST)
Money Line -750 for Game
Amount : Risking 148.00 To Win 133.07 USD
Hey fellas, sorry, at work w/no computer to use...
After reading your write-up, Chief, I do think that the Rays have the best opportunity to win this series with starting pitching and an explosive offense. When I first posted I said the value was there at +150 for the Phils and how I thought that would go up.... WRONG! At my book (local, but has website) it is now @ +125. Value no longer there for me. Now I'm thinking about just laying the juice @ -145 and winning some money on the Rays.
Like you said, their starting pitching has been remarkable and I can't imagine their bullpen having a similar meltdown either. Maybe it was good that they were put under the pressure of a game 7 and when game 5 comes around they won't take it as easy knowing what they have to overcome.
Again, thanks for everyone's insights to this game, sorry about the late reply. Haven't pulled the trigger yet, but really leaning toward a Rays wager in the near future.
Best of Luck,
Prof. Hinsley
After reading your write-up, Chief, I do think that the Rays have the best opportunity to win this series with starting pitching and an explosive offense. When I first posted I said the value was there at +150 for the Phils and how I thought that would go up.... WRONG! At my book (local, but has website) it is now @ +125. Value no longer there for me. Now I'm thinking about just laying the juice @ -145 and winning some money on the Rays.
Like you said, their starting pitching has been remarkable and I can't imagine their bullpen having a similar meltdown either. Maybe it was good that they were put under the pressure of a game 7 and when game 5 comes around they won't take it as easy knowing what they have to overcome.
Again, thanks for everyone's insights to this game, sorry about the late reply. Haven't pulled the trigger yet, but really leaning toward a Rays wager in the near future.
Best of Luck,
Prof. Hinsley
I guess for me what it comes down to is my theory that in sports, the team that overcomes the most obstacles to get to the championship will win it. Look at the New York Giants, the Red Sox twice coming back from 3-0 and 3-1 deficits in the ALCS, the Florida Marlins when they won in '04, Greece in the 2004 soccer Euro Cup, the Boston Celtics after needing 7, 7 and 6 tough games respectively to get through the Eastern Conference....etc. etc. Basically, the team that plays and wins the most meaningful games USUALLY triumphs. They get a momentum and swagger and just go buck wild on other teams. And of course, the playoffs are heavily based on momentum, and the Rays have momentum and swagger after what they just went through...let them cap off their division and pennant titles by adding a World Series to that.
The Phillies have a solid team, but the intangibles the Rays possess right now are very valuable.
BOL to everyone betting on this series.
philly playing there first time in the trop in a crazed environment be something to think about hitting wise and fielding could bigger concerns giving. Even if tampa goes into philly at 1-1 theres a solid chance tampa could win 1 or 2 in philly against moyer or hamels on short rest.
Then the long layoff with a lineup who already has the big guns struggling could really hurt the extra games for tampa most likely helped
Then the long layoff with a lineup who already has the big guns struggling could really hurt the extra games for tampa most likely helped
And when The Rays go to Philly being up 2-0, The Philly Fans will be booing the Phillies like they do to the Eagles.i think people underestimate how crazy it is playing in philly, not structurally but simply dealing with drunk fans constantly yelling at you about how they banged your mother last night.
ope:
go phillieS!
:missingte
