I amazed at how much the average bettor's opinions change after one game. Last week NOBODY wanted to bet on Atlanta and they win big and now it seems everyone is jumping on Atlanta +7.5 this week. Most people were on Jacksonville last weekend now most are against them. Nobody wanted Green Bay last week and everyone was on Detroit and now everyone is on Green Bay.
This is why the average bettor loses. He just remembers the last game. Are the Falcons suddenly good because they beat a weak team with an awful defense?
One thing that always amazes me about bettors is that they always pick the game after an embarrassing loss to bet against a team. That is the worst time to go against a team, especially in the NFL. These are professionals and they tend to play their best right after playing their worst.
This is why the average bettor loses. He just remembers the last game. Are the Falcons suddenly good because they beat a weak team with an awful defense?
One thing that always amazes me about bettors is that they always pick the game after an embarrassing loss to bet against a team. That is the worst time to go against a team, especially in the NFL. These are professionals and they tend to play their best right after playing their worst.
Do you think Atlanta will win? Tampa Bay has a solid defense - no way Atlanta has the success on the ground they had against Detroit. Griese won't have to be great or even good for TB to win this game. Who do you think will win? The team that wins covers the spread 86% of the time in the NFL. Last week it was 11 out of 12.
TB defense very well could win this game by setting up TB with field position and easy scores. Ryan making his first start on the road. Believe me, the Falcons are not a good team. They beat a bad (maybe the worst defensive team in the NFL) Detroit team. Griese just has to be average at best for TB to win this game. Griese may not be great but he will have some success against this defense. He's not going up against the '85 Bears. Why did nobody bet on Atlanta last week but now are crazy about them?
The line has already moved down some so the value in betting on Atlanta is pretty much gone (a lot of the value was gone because of their blowout win over Detroit, which is likely an aberration and not the norm). As I have said many times, the oddsmakers adjusts to injuries so really the value is gone in betting against teams because they have players missing games.
I think both Flacco and Ryan have a rude awakening on the road and go down in flames
