"7:10 PM EST. In what's been a somewhat limited sample size, Josh Tomlin has quietly managed to string together two straight seasons of strong skills at the MLB level. Tomlin’s elite control will keep him in games but his xERA of 4.07 doesn't project a full breakout and neither does his 86 MPH heat, 40%/39% groundball/fly-ball split or 6% swing and miss rate. Truth be told, Josh Tomlin is living the Marco Estrada charmed life only Tomlin’s control is about 40% better than Estrada’s. Josh Tomlin’s hard hit ball % of 36.6% is the second highest on the board today with only Shelby Miller having a worse mark. Tomlin’s misleading 3.27 ERA is in line for a correction that is not in his favor."
"Then there’s Drew Smyly, who has posted a 7.07 ERA over his last five starts. Does anyone realize how ridiculous that ERA is and how good/bad luck plays a huge role in a pitcher’s fate from game to game and month to month? Smyly is the straight goods. He has a BB/K split of 7/31 over his last 28 innings. He also has a Clayton Kershaw like swing and miss rate of 18% over his last three starts and an overall rate now of 13%. Smyly has very good control and a great strikeout rate. He absolutely stifles lefties. His low xERA is also a consistent part of his profile and now he’s a dog to Josh Tomlin because the luck pendulum is swinging in Tomlin’s favor and not Smyly’s."
"Josh Tomlin is 31-years old and has been up and down from the minors his entire career. He’s by far the second best starter in this matchup. The Indians recent form and Tomlin’s surface ERA has the wrong side favored here."
Comments? BTW i see TB is down to about +100 at Pinnacle, as of a few minutes ago.
GB is on TB but PW has Cleve.
Best of luck, boys.
:toast:
"Then there’s Drew Smyly, who has posted a 7.07 ERA over his last five starts. Does anyone realize how ridiculous that ERA is and how good/bad luck plays a huge role in a pitcher’s fate from game to game and month to month? Smyly is the straight goods. He has a BB/K split of 7/31 over his last 28 innings. He also has a Clayton Kershaw like swing and miss rate of 18% over his last three starts and an overall rate now of 13%. Smyly has very good control and a great strikeout rate. He absolutely stifles lefties. His low xERA is also a consistent part of his profile and now he’s a dog to Josh Tomlin because the luck pendulum is swinging in Tomlin’s favor and not Smyly’s."
"Josh Tomlin is 31-years old and has been up and down from the minors his entire career. He’s by far the second best starter in this matchup. The Indians recent form and Tomlin’s surface ERA has the wrong side favored here."
Comments? BTW i see TB is down to about +100 at Pinnacle, as of a few minutes ago.
GB is on TB but PW has Cleve.
Best of luck, boys.
:toast:
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