Talk me out of hammering this total...

[HBGPhillyPhan]

Geo.southern/Geo.State o58
Quick hitting triple option that put up 69 last year in this game v. a sharp passing qb(arbuckle) who will try to throw the ball 50 times....
Only thing holding me back is that geo.southern really works the clock when ahead...
Any thoughts?

 

[MUFDIVR]

Love this play!!!

 

[rolltide]

one thing to consider:

teams that allowed 69+ and blown out in h2h meeting within the past 2 years (still fresh in memory) on average allow half that amount when they meet again.

Pooints > 68 and date - P:date < 700 and P:margin < -27
SU: 20-71-0 (-15.20, 22.0%) Teaser Records ATS: 58-30-1 (4.96, 65.9%) avg line: 20.1 +6: 66-22-1 (75.0%) -6: 45-44-0 (50.6%) +10: 71-17-1 (80.7%) -10: 35-53-1 (39.8%) O/U: 12-20-0 (-5.50, 37.5%) avg total: 62.4 +6: 7-25-0 (21.9%) -6: 15-16-1 (48.4%) +10: 6-26-0 (18.8%) -10: 20-11-1 (64.5%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 37.9 135.3 32.4 18.3 222.1 1.7 5.6 5.8 5.3 6.8 20.7 Opp 40.9 189.8 34.3 20.1 274.7 1.4 8.9 9.4 7.7 7.4 35.9
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Dec 05, 2015 Saturday 14 2015 GAST GSOU away 21.0 58.5

 

[HBGPhillyPhan]

Or talk me into it..haha thanks muf
Seeiously thinking about putting 1k on this

 

[HBGPhillyPhan]

Thanks tide..really appreciate you taking the time to research that

 

[rolltide]

Thanks tide..really appreciate you taking the time to research that

it was on the killersports newsletter this week for a play on Georgia State (65%+ ATS situation) but i thought it was notable that in those 91 reverse fixtures the avg score was 56.5 (even though one team scored 69+ themselves last meeting)

GL with the play...reasoning is sound to me and total does seem a bit low when you see the points GaSo have scored vs SBC