Talk Me Out Of 3 Team Teaser 11-29

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sportsmonitor

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Anyone see any reason why this 3 team teaser might lose?? I think the only game I'm really worried about LSU/Ark. Any comments appreciated.

Missouri -16
Boise -12
LSU -.5
 

winkyduck

I am sorry for using the "R" word - and NOTHING EL
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here it goes for one more time

college football + teaser = DUMB

the lines are normally softer in college then pro - so teasing a college game is just plain stupid and no "professional" even thinks of it. if you tease a college feetball game - the books will LOVE you for it. if that's not a tipoff not to do it - i don't know what is!

DO NOT TEASE COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAMES!
DO NOT TEASE COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAMES!
DO NOT TEASE COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAMES!
DO NOT TEASE COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAMES!
DO NOT TEASE COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAMES!
DO NOT TEASE COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAMES!
DO NOT TEASE COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAMES!
DO NOT TEASE COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAMES!
DO NOT TEASE COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAMES!
DO NOT TEASE COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAMES!
DO NOT TEASE COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAMES!
DO NOT TEASE COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAMES!
DO NOT TEASE COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAMES!
DO NOT TEASE COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAMES!
DO NOT TEASE COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAMES!
DO NOT TEASE COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAMES!

have i made myself clear on this matter!
 

sportsmonitor

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Hmmmm...then which game do you see not covering?? I love teasers myself and have always done really well in the past. Unless I see a sure lock like Kansas yesterday then I usually play 2 and 3 team teasers. Actually bookies hate to see me coming with those 3 pt. teasers. I didn't bet one yesterday as I only took one play, but the week before that I spanked em good with Iowa, LSU, and K-State.
 

Midwesterner

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Weren't KSU, LSU, and Iowa outright winners? Just think how much you would of won if you parlayed them instead of teasing them. Probably 6 weeks worth of teasers. I think parlays are a better play in the long run. I do like your Mizzou pick. I was at the KU/ISU game, and if they start their second or third team QB, then MU will win by 40. Their first QB was okay, and I'm not sure if he got hurt or they wanted to try someone else.
 

kerry

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Mr. Duck: Sometimes you just have to shake your head. What a classic response, "then which game do you see not covering..."
 

ClayHenry

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I don't think it would be completely unheard of for Arkansas to pull off the upset over LSU. I do agree that Mizzou looks tasty, I think they've lost 5 in a row to the Cyclones and paybacks are a bitch as the Cyclones have been finding out all year long. I would expect something like 28-7 Missouri at the half.

sportsmonitor- I can tell you teasers just aren't the way to go as I've found out on many occasions, I played one this weekend and I was laughing because I was so sure that it had to hit I played

Pitt -1.5 over temple win
West Virginia +11 over Syracuse win
Alabama +21.5 over Auburn win

but the 4th one went to the crapper

Michigan/Ohio St. under 52 LOSER!!!!
 

sportsmonitor

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Midwestern-
Who knew at the time that all 3 teams would win outright? It just so happens they did win but with 10 point swing I was more sure and was able to unload more on that particular teaser than I usually do.

Kerry-
You can shake your head or shake my dick I don't care which, but the question still has not been answered. When you can MAN up boy then come back with an appropriate response....otherwise take your bashing somewhere else. I'll say it again for those who cannot comprehend english. Which team do you not see covering in this 3 team teaser and why? I'm starting to like this teaser even more that the smart asses have come out to play.
 

sportsmonitor

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Clay-
I never played more than 3 teams but at least you answered the question....finally. How hard was that?? Obviously I wouldn't have been thinking about a another 3 team teaser if the lines were not so tight this week. The reason why I chose LSU as the third team was because LSU has such a great defense which I believe wins games and second of all because LSU will be looking for revenge after getting beat 21-20 the last game of the year by Arkansas last year. I really didn't see any other clear cut choices but some possibilities with Colorado, W. Virg., TCU, and maybe Pitt. The lines are very tough this week after 2 soft weeks in a row.

[This message was edited by sportsmonitor on November 23, 2003 at 11:24 PM.]
 

winkyduck

I am sorry for using the "R" word - and NOTHING EL
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as for which game i don't see covering - that's NOT the point here. the point is playing CFB teasers is a bad bet - regardless of whether you win or lose.
 

sportsmonitor

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Apparently teasers are not for everyone Winky. If they don't work for you then I guess you gotta stick with whatever it is you do best. I have had plenty of success with them and will continue to take the bookies money time after time with teasers. I'll be anxiously waiting for your CFB picks this weekend Winky....win or lose. Put your money where your mouth is!!
 

drunkguy

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the difference is not which team won't cover...the real question is will you need the extra 6 points to cover?

Why LSU -0.5 instead of -6.5? Are you gaining a big enough advantage there to offset the huge reduction in payout?

The parlay will pay you 6-1.
The teaser only pays you +180 or 9-5

The question you have to ask is: will it fall within the 6 points enough times to justify the difference in payout?

For NFL going through key numbers, the answer is yes. For NCAA football, definitely not, especially when you are talking about taking a line from 22 to 16 or from 18 to 12. Although 14 and 21 may seem like key numbers, they do not hit at a high enough rate to consider them that valuable.

Bookies get rich off college teasers for this very reason.
 

sportsmonitor

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Drunk-
Sounds like you have been mislead to believe teasers are not profitable if not very much preferred. If you lost on teasers in the past then it's probably due to poor selective choices. When you asked me why -.5 instead of
-6.5 leads me to believe you made some serious errors on teaser selections in the past. Parlays are the betters demise. Many more teasers are actually won then parlays. Parlays are by far a losing proposition but then again I have only been doing this for the better part of 10-12 yrs. Teasers have not been around that long but parlays have and believe me I used to lose a lot of money playing parlays before getting turned onto teasers. You asked why LSU -.5 instead of -6.5? That question makes no sense but I will try to interpret the point of a 3 team teaser as opposed to a 2 team teaser in this situation. First of all there is no way possible to tease LSU down to -6.5 or obtain a parlay with LSU -6.5 since the line is -10.5. Second you miss the opportunity if LSU wins by 1,3, or4 then you lose the whole teaser situation as opposed to LSU -.5 which wins in any of the previous examples. Also a 2 team teaser -6 or -7 pts is not viable because your left with MU -20 or -19 whichever the case you still lose if the spread hits those panic numbers 20,21, or 24. With MU -16 I'm absolutely 100% positive they will cover even with a bad performance. The least amount MU will cover by 17 pts. or better. The same theory holds true for Boise St. -22. If you only take them in a 2 team teaser your left with -16 or -15 and lose out on crucial numbers if Boise only wins by 13 or 14 pts. Again, if Boise has an off day I'm 100% sure they will cover the 12 pts. but not 100% sure they could cover a 13 or 14 pt. spread. The third team was the only difficult choice and decided to select LSU based on a previous post that I stated defense, revenge, and the fact that all LSU has to do is win at home to bring home the $$$. Clear as mud, right? As somebody above stated Arkansas could outright win the ballgame which has me thinking about a different third team like W. Virg possibly. I'll have to research this more throughout the week. Hope I clarified the matter for you.
 

JinnRikki

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Your reasoning is sound sportsmonitor, I have done well on teasers also, you have to pick your shots a little more carefully but the payout is worth it.
I don't believe Arkansas will win, if they were home I would say they have a chance.
 

sportsmonitor

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Thanks Jinn, I agree. We will see what happens but I still like the spot in this situation with LSU. I think they bring there A+ game Friday on national tv. They also have the opportunity of playing before USC which could put a hell of lot of pressure on the Trojans in a must win situation. LSU would like nothing better than to spoil there party and start one of there own. The Razorbacks have had a nice 4 game run but all good things come to an end. The home field fans will be pumped and ready to rush onto the field after this game is over.
 

sportsmonitor

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Breakdown of teams LSU and Ark. both faced this year:

Alabama.....both teams faced Bama on the road with Ark. nearly winning in 2 O.T. and LSU pounding them. ADV=LSU

Auburn......both faced at home with Ark. losing and LSU pounding the Tigers. ADV=LSU

Florida.....both faced at home and both lost so no advantage to either team.

Ole Miss....both faced on the road with Ark. losing and LSU winning. ADV=LSU

S. Car......Ark. won at HOME 28-6 and LSU won on the ROAD by almost the same identical score 27-3. ADV=LSU

Miss. St.....Ark. crushed them at HOME and LSU crushed them on the ROAD. ADV=LSU
 

sportsmonitor

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Anyone with pertainent information concerning these games such as major injuries sustained recently or horrendous weather conditions please notify me ASAP. Also I would appreciate any factual evidence why Boise, Missouri, or Lsu will not cover. BTW, I am aware of Missouri's 2-10 ATS record the last 12 home games versus ISU. Thanks.
 

drunkguy

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congrats you nailed it.

Hopefully you parlayed it at 6-1 and made some real money.

The point I tried to make earlier is WHY teasers in college are a bad bet...you got even money when you could have got 6-1. You did not even come close to needing the points in ANY of your selections...Boise by 53, LSU by 31, Mizzou by 38. IN fact you could have GIVEN 10 on all your selections and still won. Actually you could have hit a 3 team pleaser (give 6 points) and cashed at 17-1.

That's where the value is lost in the teaser...you handicapped three games that should have paid you 6-1 and only got even money...

congrats on the big win though
applaudit.gif
 

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