Tackling Week Two of the NFL

HateTheRiverCard · Sep 8, 2003

One thing that seems to happen year in and year out is putting to much emphasis on one Game or performance, Sure San Francisco looked great scoring almost 50 points and the Bills laid an equally impressive beating on the Patriots but coronating them division winners or Super Bowl teams could be the mistake that costs one alot of money week in and week out.

I have found many posters here to be knowledgable but for any newbie that is surfing the site and just making his way into the offshore game I would like to offer up the following advice if I may.

"A team is never as good or bad as their last performance."

An example of this can be applied to anyone who has wagered on Boston College in NCAA Football.

After losing 32-28 Straight up at home Vs Wake Forest as an 11 point favorite you would assume they would have a hard time on the road vs a much tougher team in Penn State, yet they win 27-14 as a 9 point dog.

The sharps usually can draw a line through a bad performance and handicap the game without getting caught up in the furvor of last weeks outcome.

Just wondering how many people have looked at a Week Two line and and thought that it was either too high or low?

Thanks in advance for any feedback

Fishhead · Sep 8, 2003

I base alot of my NFL handicapping on this factor. It is never more true than in the NFL. Look for tremendous value in week 3 of this season and look to go against a team that has looked unbeatable, and on a team that has looked horrible.

HateTheRiverCard · Sep 8, 2003

Same here Strut, I think the initial numbers that come out are sharp but linesmakers like LVSC obviously know enough to set it where public favor and sharp action will keep a line from wavering to much. I believe in gut instincts in a lot of everyday matters but sometimes in gambling when it looks to good to be true then it usually is.

GL next week!

Fishhead · Sep 8, 2003

You sound like an intelligetn poster......hope you hang around more often and share your opinions. Thanks

DarrylParsons · Sep 8, 2003

HRC,

I'm not much of an NFL handicapper, but my principle in sports betting has always been that recent results are overrated and so I tend to bet on cold teams and bet against hot teams. So I agree with what you are saying.

I imagine a world in which the outcomes of baseball games are decided by a flip of a coin (with a slight bias for home advantage) and consider what the standings would look like at, say, the all-star break. In terms of how many wins the top teams have, it wouldn't look THAT much different from the actual standings! Yet there would surely be all sorts of headlines and reports talking about how brilliant certain players and coaches are etc.

People seem to have a need to explain everything and find reasons, when a lot of times it's just a lot of random shIt that's happening. I guess a newspaper wouldn't sell too many copies if it had a headline like "Randomness causes 6-0 defeat" and a story which starts like "Coach Smith was biting his nails but he knew there was nothing he could do since no major events occurred which would change any of his initially assumed probabilities. Sure Slugger Jones has 8 strikeouts in his last 9 at bats but he's wise enough to chalk that up to random fluctuations because we all know that has to happen to someone almost every season -- we'd actually be surprised if it DIDN'T happen"...and according to the owner George Steinbugger "I love my coaches' 'get it right at the start and then laissez-faire' policy because it shows he's a master of statistics". He continued "who cares what the public wants him to do, we're here to win games, not please the public, where do you think our bottom line comes from?" (a brief pause follows) "Wait a minute, did I get that in the right order? Oh nevermind".

And I agree with Strut in that I hope you post more.

[This message was edited by Darryl Parsons on September 08, 2003 at 05:31 PM.]

HacheMan · Sep 8, 2003

By Hatetherivercard <BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> The sharps usually can draw a line through a bad performance and handicap the game without getting caught up in the furvor of last weeks outcome.
<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

This is why I believe you should keep somewhat of a graph of each team, with all 17 weeks, and each week track the spread, O/U, final score/results, passing & rushing yds. for each team that game, and notes at end of each bar.....DONT UPDATE EACH TEAMS RECORD EACH WEEK. Even though their records may stick out in your head, try and block that out,and just use any other handicapping methods you have, along with your graph for capping the game, and dont let reading where a 7-1 team facing a 2-6 team influence your decision based solely on those records.

wilheim · Sep 8, 2003

1. Buffalo Bills have improved.
2. Keeping Tommy Maddox right move by Steelers.
3. Bengals are still weaklings.
4. Bill Parcells has his work cut out for him.
5. Refs effect games way to much.

Conclusions I am not ready to come up with yet.:

1. Giants are a top contender in NFC.
2. Vikings are back.
3. Chiefs have a defense.
4. Dolphins are dead.
5. 49ers are unstoppable.

Key performers so far: Broncos - Clinton Portis, Bills - London Fletcher, Steelers - Tommy Maddox, Colts - Nick Harper, Vikes - Randy Moss, Chiefs, Priest Holmes, Giants - Omar Stoudmire,
49ers - Ahmed Plummer, Seahawks - Shaun Alexander, and Titans - Steve McNair.

IMHO. wil.

HateTheRiverCard · Sep 8, 2003

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by wilheim:
1. Buffalo Bills have improved.
2. Keeping Tommy Maddox right move by Steelers.
3. Bengals are still weaklings.
4. Bill Parcells has his work cut out for him.
5. Refs effect games way to much.

Conclusions I am not ready to come up with yet.:

1. Giants are a top contender in NFC.
2. Vikings are back.
3. Chiefs have a defense.
4. Dolphins are dead.
5. 49ers are unstoppable.

IMHO. wil.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Thanks for the feedback Wil, definitely agree with the above.

HateTheRiverCard · Sep 16, 2003

Well it's on to Week 3 now, and some of the above replies proved prohetic this past weekend as some teams that either played well above or below their skill level Weel 1 had much different performances in Week 2, ones that come to mind are.

1.Tampa Bay off a big road victory playing brutal as a 10 point fav at home against Carolina

2.Tennessee tossing in the towel on the road vs the Colts. Tenn played a tough physical game the week before against Oakland.

3.Oakland coming out of that game and being made a 12 point fav over Cincinnati who were blown out the week before at home which probably contributed to the line being as high as it was.

The season is full of ebbs and flows for teams and if you can somehow sift through all the info and find the pattern it can prove profitable over the course of a season.

Looking at Week 3 any thoughts on teams that may improve or bounce off of last weeks performances?

HateTheRiverCard · Sep 16, 2003

St.Louis has played two physically and emotionally draining games and now faces an improved 'Hawks team on the road, I believe this could be a letdown situation for the Rams.

HTRC