Synthetic MLs

[OzCap]

Using some relatively known methods for juicing heavy favourites very chalky lines...

Fc Barcelona/Cf Elche (Copa Del Rey)

Barca win is currently running ~ $1.09-1.10

Expect Barca to score at least two goals, but not happy with a -2.5 AH....so...trying to create a synthetic ML for Barca win:

1.5u on Barca (-2.5) @ $1.70
0.35u on Barca:Elche 2:0 correct score @ $7.19
0.15u on Barca:Elche 3:1 correct score @ $15.06

Overall, risking 2u to win 0.5u (roughly odds of $1.25 - creating a little extra value, although there is a little additional risk if 1-0 or 2-1 happens).

Good luck!
Oz

 

[OzCap]

The minute they announced the lineups on this one I felt good about it. Barca fielded a surprisingly full squad and that was perfect (while Elche was still missing some key defenders).

Barca win 5-0 and so the AH(-2.5) wins (and the units were slightly tweaked to favor that result) a net 0.55u (net $1.275 odds or a 27.5% return).

Oz

 

[OzCap]

Another synthetic ML from the Welsh Prem League:

Bala vs Gap Connahs Quay. Overall CQ is overmatched here against a very strong, in-form opponent in Bala. You can look at every analysis you want (goals, rateform, common opponents) and it all points to a Bala win, the problem is the odds are only $1.27. Trying to juice that a little by discounting the possibility of a 1-0 win in this match. Given that Bala is averaging approximately 2 goals per game this season and 3.5 gpg over their last 4 home games and CQ seems to score a consistent 1 gpg (excluding cup games), it would seem that is an unlikely scoreline, but I don't have enough confidence in the asian handicap (-1.5) as Bala is apt to give up a goal each game too, I think that 2-1 is a reasonably likely scoreline here.

Overall I think 2-1 or a Bala blowout and so this is a good spot for a synthetic ML on Bala:

0.86u on Bala (-1.5) @ $1.71
0.14u on Bala/CQ Correct Score (2-1) @ $10.10

This will net 1.46u on 1 unit, a lot better than 1.27u....however there is risk with potential 1 goal wins of 1-0 and (very unlikely) 3-2 that a typical ML would normally win. You can cover these by betting 0.087u and 0.038u on each respectively to win stake back, but that would drop your return to around 1.31u (not much improvement over full odds), that is a personal risk question - I personally wouldn't bother with 3-2, but would probably consider the 1-0 if Bala was away, not home.

Good luck
Oz

 

[OzCap]

Sorry, the Welsh Prem game was postponed and so this will be cancelled.

 

[OzCap]

Couple of plays for Saturday:

Portugal Primeira Liga:

Benfica/Guimaraes - Benfica is a ridiculously good side, and while Guimaraes would be a top flight team in most European leagues, they are outclassed here with Benfica holding homefield advantage too. Expect Benfica to win, was tempted by the AH(-1) @ $1.60, but wanted better odds. Given the stinginess of Benfica's defense, I think they can hold a clean sheet here and win the game. As such this constitutes a variant of synthetic MLs:

Benfica the only team to score @ $2.06

Also, Porto/Belenenses is a bigger mismatch. Porto is untouchable at home and simply doesn't let in goals and, honestly, Belenenses wins with good defense, but can't really score (and on the road). Overall this screams Porto win against a clean sheet. Hard to to tell, but 2-0/3-0 Porto would seem to fit which makes the Asian a little dicey, but the ml @ $1.17 isn't enough value either. So, synthesizing a better value as with Benfica:

Porto the only team to score @ $1.62


Spain (La Liga):

Real Madrid vs RCD Esp Barcelona. A ridiculous mismatch. Real scores at will and doesn't score that much, but @ $1.10 the odds are a little rich for my blood. Creating value with AH and correct scores this time:

1.45u Real Madrid (-2.5) @ $1.83
0.34u Real Madrid Correct Score (2-0) @ $7.90
0.21u Real Madrid Correct Score (3-1) @ $12.33

Effectively risking 2u to win 0.65u (~$1.325 odds, a good deal better than $1.10 - but with additional risk at 1-0 and 2-1)

Good luck
Oz

 

[OzCap]

One additional play I like that doesn't fall into the synthetic ML category (Sp. La Liga):

1 unit on Valencia (PK) @ $2.10

Good luck
Oz

 

[OzCap]

3-0-1 on the day and +2.33 units on 4 units.

Overall 4-0-1 and 2.88 units (6 Units/ 48.1% ROI)

Oz

 

[EasyPicks]

very solid work.
w-thumbs!^

 

[OzCap]

Overnight play in the Asian Cup:

Japan/Palestine (what a crazy match up....lol....2AM EST). Japan should dominate and score at least 2 goals in this game, but a 3-goal AH always makes me think twice and the ML @ $1.13 is a little chalky for my taste. I don't believe Palestine can score more than one so I am going with an AH/correct score method again:

1.32u Japan (-2.5) @ $2.13
0.48u Japan/Palestine Correct Score (2:0) @ $5.83
0.20u Japan Palestine Correct Score (3:1) @ $13.72

Effectively risking 2u to win 0.80 units (~$1.40 which is a good deal better than @ $1.13).

Good luck!
Oz

 

[OzCap]

Japan seal the deal and Palestine made the last ten minutes a little easier by getting a second yellow/red card.

On the day 1-0 and +0.81 units.
Overall 5-0-1 and 3.69 units (8 Units/ 46.1% ROI)

Oz

 

[OzCap]

One synthetic ML that I like for Saturday in the Welsh Prem league, Aberystwyth vs Prestatyn. This is a top vs bottom of the table clash and has "lots of goal"written all over it, mostly for Abersytwyth (I am going to mispell that at least one time, so I apologize...). Prestatyn has had some decent results against the same opposition over recent years, but these two teams are going in opposite direction and the relevant home/away form and overall performance this season should have Aberystwyth taking this one by a couple of goals. Combined these two teams have had one clean sheet in their last TEN games and Prestatyn has allowed 58 goals in 21 games, and more importantly, 33 goals in 10 away games. If you fully play out the goal analysis you would likely end up around a 2-1/3-0/3-1 scoreline.

Currently Aberystwyth to win is $1.34, trying to improve those odds a little, without too much additional risk...soo....

1.67u on Aberystwyth (-1.5) @ $1.86
0.33u on Aber/Pres Correct Score (2-1) @ $9.56

Overall this will net 1.1 units on 2units wagered (roughly $1.55). Thus adding $0.18, but only adding risk at 1-0 in my opinion (3-2 seems unlikely the way Prestatyn has been playing away and their recent form).

Good luck!
Oz

 

[OzCap]

Prestatyn obliged with 2 red cards, even though they went up a goal early. Aberystwyth closed the deal 3-1.

On the day 1-0 and +1.11 units.
Overall 6-0-1 and 4.80 units (10 Units/ 48.0% ROI)

Helps make up a little for my debacle in the other thread...

Oz

 

[OzCap]

Looking at more Welsh action tomorrow...TNS vs Carmarthen. TNS is the overwhelming favourite here (win @ $1.20) and they are the dominant team in the league BY FAR with a record of 16W/5D/0L on the year (and 7/3/0 at home) averaging a Goal DIFFERENCE of over 2 goals and have generally good form against a decent team in Carmarthen. TNS has looked good with 6 straight wins in the league and it is hard to bet against them. This is once again a situation where odd goals could be scored by a decent opponent, but I feel TNS should win this one comfortably. Looking to juice the line again.

Going for a relatively typical path as before...

1.87u on TNS AH (-1.5) @ 1.57
0.13u on TNS/Carmarthen Correct Score (2:1) @ $10.60

The net effect is to generate 0.73u on 2 units. Overall this gives a little extra risk at 1-0 and again (very unlikely) 3-2 scoreline, but returns net better odds ($1.36 vs $1.20).

Good luck!
Oz

 

[OzCap]

Another that looks too good to pass up...Belgium (Pro League) - Anderlecht vs Lierse. Two teams that really couldn't be any further apart in class and ability within the same division, and Anderlecht has home field advantage too...Briefly stated, Anderlecht can score goals and has 6 clean sheets in their last ten and are 6-3-1 at home whereas Lierse has had an awful run in the league and their away record is 1-1-9, scoring only 7 goals in 11 games, while allowing 28 and hasn't won (either home or away) in 10 games. If you are looking at general team ratings Anderlecht is in the upper echelons and Lierse is in the lowest tier of team. Although it should be noted that Lierse is one of those bogey teams for Anderlecht, especially on the road (last two meetings were a draw and win for Lierse).

So...@1.24 it might not be the least value bet on the board, but I think that if Anderlecht wins it will by at least one goal and likely by a clean sheet.

Some good value bets that are on the board:

Anderlecht AH(-1.5) @ $1.66
Anderlecht the only team to score @ $2.23
Lierse score 0 goals @ $2.12
Exact Scorelines that seem likely 2-0/2-1/3-0/3-1/4-0

Going to put down a primary and secondary bet on this game:

1.29u Anderlecht AH (-1.5) @ $1.66
0.21u Exact Score And/Lierse (2:1) @ $10.01

(effectively gives 0.85 units on 1.5 risked; ~ $1.57)

And

0.5u on Anderlecht the only team to score @ $2.23

If this comes through, we will return ~ $1.74 odds overall, provided Anderlecht wins, this will be a winning proposition (at roughly $1.17 - which is just a bit less than the straight win).

Good luck
Oz

 

[OzCap]

Well, the Welsh game got postponed and Anderlecht won both bets with a 3-0 result, leaving us 2-0 and +1.26 units.

Overall 8-0-1 and +6.06 units (12 Units/ 50.5% ROI)

Oz

 

[OzCap]

Adding one more for today from the Italian Serie A - Juventus/Verona. This is an interesting match as Juventus destroyed Verona only 3 days ago in the Italian Cup (6-1) and so it stands to reason that a win (same venue/teams) is highly likely today (hence the $1.18 win odds on Juve). Of course, you can consider pride/revenge etc...but there is a large margin in quality between these two teams, now and historically. Given the recent game I would give a small advantage to Juventus as they have more depth and can rotate players through that will give them consistent and strong performance as a team. Overall I anticipate a lopsided Juventus win and so the straight win at $1.18 seems like a good opportunity for value improvement with a synthetic ML, but I am cautious of Verona as they can score and often score the "odd" goal. Looking to the following bets for value:

Juventus AH(-1.5) @ $1.54
Juventus AH(-2) @ $1.80
HT/FT results Juve/Juve @ $1.61
and correct score bets

Going with a fairly typical set-up (trying to avoid the typical 2-1 failure, esp as Juve has a tendency to let in the odd goal and Verona can score):

1.77u on Juventus AH(-1.5) @ $1.54
0.23u on Juve/Verona Correct Score (2:1) @ $11.69

Which will yield ~0.77u on 2u wagered (~$1.34 vs a straight ML of $1.18). Provided Juve gets to two goals this should turn out profitable (Verona have only scored 2 goals twice in the last 10 games, against lowly Verona and in a friendly against a weak Lugano side).

To solidify this I am adding some potential winning on the Juve AH(-2) as there is a good chance of a 2+ goal victory here and pushing on the secondary bet doesn't bother me too much:

0.5u on Juventus AH(-2) @ $1.84

Good luck!
Oz

 

[OzCap]

Juve comes in 4-0 and another 2-0 and +1.15 units.

Overall 10-0-1 and +7.21 units (14.5 Units/ 49.7% ROI)

Oz

 

[OzCap]

One play for 1/20 (Welsh Prem League again...)...TNS Llasant/Carmarthen. TNS is (as always) THE team in the Welsh Prem and are still unbeaten on the season. Having said that, Carmarthen are not slouches and have good form and are having a solid season. Without going into great detail. with TNS at home (7W/3D/0L on the season) and Carmarthen 4-2-4 in away games, coupled with a simple goals analysis I expect this game to end up in 2-0/2-1/3-0/3-1 territory in favor of TNS. The ML is very low for a relatively strong matchup and the Asian Handicap (-1.75) seems a little risky so I am going to build a little value with the following:

TNS AH(-2.5) @ $2.14
Correct Scores (2-0/2-1/3-1) @ $11.76/$7.66/$11.59
Matchbet of TNS to win & Total Goals OVER 1.5 @ $1.26
HT/FT result TNS/TNS @ $1.55

Choosing to go with the Matchbet:
2u on Matchbet TNS/OVER(1.5) @ $1.26

(you can build the same bet using AH(-2.5) & the correct scores outlined with a ratio of 0.61u:0.11u:0.17u:0.11u, respectively to net a $1.30, the only difference is the slight risk of a 3-2/4-2 results that aren't covered)

Also adding:

0.25u on HT/FT TNS/TNS @ $1.55

Good luck
Oz

 

[OzCap]

Another Welsh game postponed...bloody ridiculous...although not too surprising.

Play for tomorrow in the Scottish Premier, Celtic vs Motherwell. Celtic is one of the class sides in the Premiership and should easily beat Motherwell, question is the expected result in order to beef up the $1.13 odds. Celtic are dominant at home with a 7-2-1 record whereas Motherwell appear to play a little poorly on the road with a season record of 2-1-8 away from Fir Park. While Celtic have been strong they have had a stray loss and draw in the last few games, in addition to a friendly loss to Sparta Praha. Looking at a goals analysis, Motherwell doesn't score a lot of goals and Celtic has a solid defensive line and has a lot of low-scoring/clean sheets to their credit this season.

See value in:

Celtic Clean Sheet @ $1.67
Celtic the only team to score @ $1.73
Celtic AH(-2) @ $1.54
Celtic Correct Scores "to zero" (e.g., 1-0, 2-0 etc...)

Since Celtic don't seem to be scoring a large number of goals (bar a couple of exception results against Dundee Utd and lowly Ross County) and Motherwell is even less likely to score goals (1 or less), I like the "-to-0" method here:

Playing correct score "dutched" (arbitraged):

0.268u on 1-0 @ $11.83
0.426u on 2-0 @ $7.43
0.234u on 2-1 @ $13.59
0.456u on 3-0 @ $6.95
0.250u on 3-1 @ $12.70
0.368u on 4-0 @ $8.63

This is equivalent to 2u that should net ~1.16u (odds around $1.58 which is way better than $1.13, just extra risk with a huge number of Celtic goals or Motherwell dropping in more than 1 (which they have only done twice this season, both times against..you guessed it....Ross County). Even the books rate this at <5% chance.

Secondary bets:

0.5u on Celtic AH(-2) @ $1.54 - adds a little protection for the unexpected large number of goals, but 2-0/3-0/3-1 is a realistic scoreline here - don't mind pushing the AH on the secondary bet.
0.25u on Celtic only team to score @ $1.73

If all bets come through, that is 2.75u at risk to win a potential 1.61u (~$1.59).

Good luck
Oz

 

[OzCap]

Celtic win with a 4-0 scoreline allowing us to win the Correct Score, AH(-2) and Only team to score bets. 3-0 and +1.63u (with the ratios above) on 2.75 units wagered

Overall 13-0-1 and +8.84 units (17.25 Units/ 51.2% ROI)

Be back later with some more.

Oz