Superbowl Total Play, Alt Lines, and Props

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So i decided to do some "entertainment value" style bets for the superbowl this year, should make it more interesting to watch & maybe win a little $. However, i wanna start with my legitimate total play that i have been thinking about all week:

Denver/Carolina Under 45.5, -110 -
Let me begin by stating: Yes i do believe in numbers, statistical data, systems, and analysis to be successful at capping sports. I look at that stuff almost daily for NCAAB but there are a few games during the year in all sports where i think just common sense overrules research and spreadsheets. This play happens to be one of those, ive debated on looking deep into this & tonight i decided against that and pulled the trigger. Here is why:

-Denver has one of the best defenses in the NFL, who has proven they can stop high powered offenses = Carolina Low Total

-As much as i love Peyton Manning he is old and has trouble scoring the football = Denver Low Total


Point is that i believe both teams will have trouble scoring, so i bet the under. I apologize in advance to those looking for more substance, i am too a fan of a detailed breakdown - in this case & especially this game people over-analyze it so i tried to counter that thought process. Thanks and let me know your thoughts, arguments, criticism, or words of encouragement, i love a good discussion!



The rest of these were geared towards enjoying the game, but i didn't just randomly select them, i do believe based on past performances and watching both teams this season that these are the best value based upon odds and probability (bovada):

Play #Reference #Wager DetailsSelectionRiskTo WinResult
1Single #641510019 The first scoring play of the game will be?Panthers Field Goal (+350)$15.00$52.50 TBD
2Single #641510018 The first score of the game - Exact outcomePanthers Field Goal (+350)$20.00$70.00 TBD
3Single #641510017 Score at the end of 1st QuarterPanthers lead by 1-6 points (+400) $20.00$80.00 TBD
4Single #641510016 Total Combined Points - Entire Game31-40 (+275)$20.00$55.00 TBD
5Single #641510015 First Half Margin of VictoryBroncos by 1 to 3 points (+900)$35.00$315.00 TBD
6Single #641510014 Alternate TotalUnder 40.5 (+170)$20.00$34.00 TBD
7Single #641510013 Full Game Margin of VictoryBroncos by 7-12 points (+800)$20.00$160.00 TBD



























Note: yes the first two plays are virtually the same thing, they had it on there twice w/ different wording and i didnt realize til after!


Total Risk: $150.00


To Win: $766.50

Enjoy the weekend and any wagers you're placing! God Bless

-ville
 

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Ville...........appreciate all your time, effort and thoughts this past season...........BOL with all your action tomorrow............indy
 

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Thanks Indy, no problem!! Under play a winner and two of the props hit. Fun to watch Peyton win his second super bowl!
 

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