How Sharps are Betting the Super Bowl
Sharps have been very clear with their preferences in the battle between the San Francisco 49ers and Baltimore Ravens in this year’s Super Bowl. With just a few days until kickoff, the lines have been drawn between smart money and square money.
SUPER BOWL: SAN FRANCISCO vs. BALTIMORE
Opening Line: San Francisco by 5, total of 49
Current Line: San Francisco by 3.5, total of 47.5
Oddsmakers were in a tough spot here because San Francisco is one of the most popular betting teams in Las Vegas when things are going well. If you’ve ever been to a Vegas sportsbook on a regular season NFL Sunday, you know that 49ers fans and Raiders fans are everywhere. Those are the “local” teams. They get betting support even in the worst of times. Put one of them in the Super Bowl and:
*Locals come out of the woodwork to bet
*Locals make BIG BETS because it’s the Super Bowl
*Californians make the short trip to bet, because two weeks is plenty of time to get down
On the other hand, oddsmakers also knew that Baltimore received a lot of public support in the AFC championship game against New England. Sportsbooks suffered quite a hit because sharps AND squares lined up on the Ravens as a big underdog. Everybody cashed their tickets. That meant a significant hunk of “public” bettors who didn’t have natural allegiance to San Francisco might stick with the Ravens. And, they would definitely come in strong on the Ravens if the line was too high.
Ultimately, the sportsbooks needed to find some sort of balance where:
*Niners money wasn’t getting a favorable line
*Ravens money would help offset the Niners money
*Sharp money would do the same
Imagine an opening line of San Francisco -2. The whole world would have been on the favorite! Sharps would like the superior team below a key number. Locals would be betting hand over fist. It would be the most one-sided betting game ever, and sportsbooks would have been flirting with bankruptcy if the Niners won by a field goal or more.
Now, imagine an opening line of San Francisco -7.5. Some diehards would support the Niners come hell or high water because of team loyalty. But, a number that high would scare away much of the favorite support, while inviting Baltimore money in to an extreme degree. It would be like Baltimore/New England all over again with sharps and most of the squares on the Ravens.
The first numbers up were around San Francisco -5 (some places opened lower) to test the waters. Sharp money did come in immediately (sharp money always bets first!), which brought the line down to San Francisco -4. Initial betting continued to favor the Ravens. Most stores as we go to press are at San Francisco -3.5 But, they’re reporting that two-thirds of the tickets being written are on the favorite. Sportsbooks and sharps will be rooting for Baltimore. Most squares will be rooting for San Francisco.
Should square money come in even more aggressively through the weekend (a likely possibility), we may see a line jump up to four or 4.5…which would initiate re-investment from sharps at the higher numbers. Sportsbooks don’t expect to balance the books on the team side. That’s virtually impossible in a game like this. They’ll take an acceptable position against the Niners and gamble a little…knowing that what they’ll make from team and player props will help offset any loss. And, if Baltimore covers…then it will be a big profit day for the men in suits!
Does this mean YOU should automatically bet the Ravens? Depends on who you ask. Longterm math says it’s generally good to be rooting with the sharps. But, SUPER BOWL HISTORY makes it very clear that the public can clean up with favorites when a championship is on the line. You can find years of quotes from oddsmakers (current and former) talking about how the dumb public had lined up on the wrong team only to see a blowout commence. Sharps have had years of migraines with this game in the past. Don’t forget that sharps loved Green Bay in San Francisco a couple of weeks ago. That didn’t work out so well.
The totals guys hit the Under at 49, at 48.5, and at 48. By late Thursday, we were seeing 47.5 or 47 at most outlets. Math-minded sharps who had bet the Under at 49 came back on the Over at 47. The numbers 47 and 48 are fairly common for games in this price range (24-23, 27-20, 27-21, 28-20, 30-17, 31-17). There won’t be any weather influences because the game is in the SuperDome. Only a last second injury development would change the sharp mindset about this game. Over at 47…but with the flexibility to go Under any inflated totals that get created by public betting Saturday and Sunday before kickoff.
What about teasers? The line isn’t positioned well for teaser players. Sharps want to cross both the 3 and the 7 when they include teams in two-team teasers. You can’t do that here. You can only cross one at a time. Moving Baltimore from +3.5 up to +9.5 and then linking it with a total doesn’t provide enough point value to make it +EV. Moving San Francisco from -3.5 over to +2.5 doesn’t pick up enough real value either. Squares may bet teasers because a square can talk himself into anything when it’s the Super Bowl. Sharps aren’t interested at this number.
Let’s say, though, that San Francisco moves up to -4.5 because of public betting. Would sharps take Baltimore up to +10.5 in teasers…because the six-point move crosses a 7 and a 10? There is a subset of sharps who made the game more like SF -2 initially that would step in here because they would see themselves as getting about eight points of value instead of six. It’s not a large subset. Most sharps aren’t even messing with teaser options this year.
What about props? There are so many props at so many Vegas outlets that it’s difficult to summarize how sharps are betting them beyond what you already know.
*Oddsmakers know that the public likes betting Overs. They shade their prop lines against that, which brings sharps in on many Unders.
*Oddsmakers know that the public likes betting on star players on the favorite to do well. Sharps often take a lot of Unders on the favorite’s stars’ yardage or scoring totals as a result.
*Oddsmakers typically post very poor moneyline odds on various props. Sharps avoid these because there isn’t any betting value to be found.
We can tell you that many respected sharps are focusing on Joe Flacco to post numbers because Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan just posted big passing stats against this San Francisco defense. And, some see this as a hedge for Baltimore +3.5 because Flacco might have even bigger passing stats if the Ravens fall behind and have to play catch up. Asking for a good game from Flacco in propositions can work out independently of the game result.
The lines in the Nevada desert sand have largely been drawn, though there’s still plenty of time before kickoff for new market developments. Remember that the legends here at VegasSportsMasters have made their reputations by beating settled game day lines for decades. You’ll see on our “buy picks” page that many have fantastic Super Bowl records going back many years…better than oddsmakers and better than sharps!
Be sure you check out all the great offers from the biggest names in the business. The best way to think like a sharp and bet like a sharp is to link up with the VegasSportsMasters!
Sharps have been very clear with their preferences in the battle between the San Francisco 49ers and Baltimore Ravens in this year’s Super Bowl. With just a few days until kickoff, the lines have been drawn between smart money and square money.
SUPER BOWL: SAN FRANCISCO vs. BALTIMORE
Opening Line: San Francisco by 5, total of 49
Current Line: San Francisco by 3.5, total of 47.5
Oddsmakers were in a tough spot here because San Francisco is one of the most popular betting teams in Las Vegas when things are going well. If you’ve ever been to a Vegas sportsbook on a regular season NFL Sunday, you know that 49ers fans and Raiders fans are everywhere. Those are the “local” teams. They get betting support even in the worst of times. Put one of them in the Super Bowl and:
*Locals come out of the woodwork to bet
*Locals make BIG BETS because it’s the Super Bowl
*Californians make the short trip to bet, because two weeks is plenty of time to get down
On the other hand, oddsmakers also knew that Baltimore received a lot of public support in the AFC championship game against New England. Sportsbooks suffered quite a hit because sharps AND squares lined up on the Ravens as a big underdog. Everybody cashed their tickets. That meant a significant hunk of “public” bettors who didn’t have natural allegiance to San Francisco might stick with the Ravens. And, they would definitely come in strong on the Ravens if the line was too high.
Ultimately, the sportsbooks needed to find some sort of balance where:
*Niners money wasn’t getting a favorable line
*Ravens money would help offset the Niners money
*Sharp money would do the same
Imagine an opening line of San Francisco -2. The whole world would have been on the favorite! Sharps would like the superior team below a key number. Locals would be betting hand over fist. It would be the most one-sided betting game ever, and sportsbooks would have been flirting with bankruptcy if the Niners won by a field goal or more.
Now, imagine an opening line of San Francisco -7.5. Some diehards would support the Niners come hell or high water because of team loyalty. But, a number that high would scare away much of the favorite support, while inviting Baltimore money in to an extreme degree. It would be like Baltimore/New England all over again with sharps and most of the squares on the Ravens.
The first numbers up were around San Francisco -5 (some places opened lower) to test the waters. Sharp money did come in immediately (sharp money always bets first!), which brought the line down to San Francisco -4. Initial betting continued to favor the Ravens. Most stores as we go to press are at San Francisco -3.5 But, they’re reporting that two-thirds of the tickets being written are on the favorite. Sportsbooks and sharps will be rooting for Baltimore. Most squares will be rooting for San Francisco.
Should square money come in even more aggressively through the weekend (a likely possibility), we may see a line jump up to four or 4.5…which would initiate re-investment from sharps at the higher numbers. Sportsbooks don’t expect to balance the books on the team side. That’s virtually impossible in a game like this. They’ll take an acceptable position against the Niners and gamble a little…knowing that what they’ll make from team and player props will help offset any loss. And, if Baltimore covers…then it will be a big profit day for the men in suits!
Does this mean YOU should automatically bet the Ravens? Depends on who you ask. Longterm math says it’s generally good to be rooting with the sharps. But, SUPER BOWL HISTORY makes it very clear that the public can clean up with favorites when a championship is on the line. You can find years of quotes from oddsmakers (current and former) talking about how the dumb public had lined up on the wrong team only to see a blowout commence. Sharps have had years of migraines with this game in the past. Don’t forget that sharps loved Green Bay in San Francisco a couple of weeks ago. That didn’t work out so well.
The totals guys hit the Under at 49, at 48.5, and at 48. By late Thursday, we were seeing 47.5 or 47 at most outlets. Math-minded sharps who had bet the Under at 49 came back on the Over at 47. The numbers 47 and 48 are fairly common for games in this price range (24-23, 27-20, 27-21, 28-20, 30-17, 31-17). There won’t be any weather influences because the game is in the SuperDome. Only a last second injury development would change the sharp mindset about this game. Over at 47…but with the flexibility to go Under any inflated totals that get created by public betting Saturday and Sunday before kickoff.
What about teasers? The line isn’t positioned well for teaser players. Sharps want to cross both the 3 and the 7 when they include teams in two-team teasers. You can’t do that here. You can only cross one at a time. Moving Baltimore from +3.5 up to +9.5 and then linking it with a total doesn’t provide enough point value to make it +EV. Moving San Francisco from -3.5 over to +2.5 doesn’t pick up enough real value either. Squares may bet teasers because a square can talk himself into anything when it’s the Super Bowl. Sharps aren’t interested at this number.
Let’s say, though, that San Francisco moves up to -4.5 because of public betting. Would sharps take Baltimore up to +10.5 in teasers…because the six-point move crosses a 7 and a 10? There is a subset of sharps who made the game more like SF -2 initially that would step in here because they would see themselves as getting about eight points of value instead of six. It’s not a large subset. Most sharps aren’t even messing with teaser options this year.
What about props? There are so many props at so many Vegas outlets that it’s difficult to summarize how sharps are betting them beyond what you already know.
*Oddsmakers know that the public likes betting Overs. They shade their prop lines against that, which brings sharps in on many Unders.
*Oddsmakers know that the public likes betting on star players on the favorite to do well. Sharps often take a lot of Unders on the favorite’s stars’ yardage or scoring totals as a result.
*Oddsmakers typically post very poor moneyline odds on various props. Sharps avoid these because there isn’t any betting value to be found.
We can tell you that many respected sharps are focusing on Joe Flacco to post numbers because Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan just posted big passing stats against this San Francisco defense. And, some see this as a hedge for Baltimore +3.5 because Flacco might have even bigger passing stats if the Ravens fall behind and have to play catch up. Asking for a good game from Flacco in propositions can work out independently of the game result.
The lines in the Nevada desert sand have largely been drawn, though there’s still plenty of time before kickoff for new market developments. Remember that the legends here at VegasSportsMasters have made their reputations by beating settled game day lines for decades. You’ll see on our “buy picks” page that many have fantastic Super Bowl records going back many years…better than oddsmakers and better than sharps!
Be sure you check out all the great offers from the biggest names in the business. The best way to think like a sharp and bet like a sharp is to link up with the VegasSportsMasters!
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pointwise
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$800.00 -105 Take #101 Baltimore (+4) over San Francisco (6:30 p.m., Sunday, Feb. 3)
The Ravens are meant to win this game and I think that they will. They were able to beat Denver on the road and beat New England on the road and I think that they are the hot team right now just like the Giants were last year. San Francisco was very fortunate to come from behind in both of their playoff games and very fortunate to hold on in Atlanta last week. They are a little younger team and I think that a lot of them are just happy to be here. Baltimore is a team that has had a lot of playoff success and has played in a lot of big playoff games like this. The Ravens are a little older. And they have more motivation to get a championship here because this is their last chance with guys like Lewis and Reed. But this could be a close game and the Ravens lose. And I think it will be a good game regardless. So having this many points and being on a key NFL number like this is all the value I need. I have my money down on the Ravens. I think they are going to win. But I am going to take the points and be happy to collect.
PROP BETS -
$200.00 Play. Will Kaepernick Throw An INT = YES (-135)
$200.00 Play. Kaepernick Rushing Attempts = 'UNDER' 7.5 (-130)
$200.00 Play. Will Kaepernick Score a Rush TD = NO (-145)
I am betting on Baltimore because I don't think that Colin Kaepernick will have as strong of a game this Sunday. I think the Ravens will key in on him and I think they will shut him down. Kaepernick has only been a starter for nine games and I don't think that he is ready for this big stage. I think the Ravens will key on him in the read-option. I think he will be playing from behind most of the game and that means that he won't have as many opportunities to run as the 49ers will be forced to throw more playing from behind.
Thank you to everyone for another great year. That is now 16 of 19 winning NFL years. I hope you will keep me in mind for next fall when I come back with more NFL 411 System plays and another winning year.
The Ravens are meant to win this game and I think that they will. They were able to beat Denver on the road and beat New England on the road and I think that they are the hot team right now just like the Giants were last year. San Francisco was very fortunate to come from behind in both of their playoff games and very fortunate to hold on in Atlanta last week. They are a little younger team and I think that a lot of them are just happy to be here. Baltimore is a team that has had a lot of playoff success and has played in a lot of big playoff games like this. The Ravens are a little older. And they have more motivation to get a championship here because this is their last chance with guys like Lewis and Reed. But this could be a close game and the Ravens lose. And I think it will be a good game regardless. So having this many points and being on a key NFL number like this is all the value I need. I have my money down on the Ravens. I think they are going to win. But I am going to take the points and be happy to collect.
PROP BETS -
$200.00 Play. Will Kaepernick Throw An INT = YES (-135)
$200.00 Play. Kaepernick Rushing Attempts = 'UNDER' 7.5 (-130)
$200.00 Play. Will Kaepernick Score a Rush TD = NO (-145)
I am betting on Baltimore because I don't think that Colin Kaepernick will have as strong of a game this Sunday. I think the Ravens will key in on him and I think they will shut him down. Kaepernick has only been a starter for nine games and I don't think that he is ready for this big stage. I think the Ravens will key on him in the read-option. I think he will be playing from behind most of the game and that means that he won't have as many opportunities to run as the 49ers will be forced to throw more playing from behind.
Thank you to everyone for another great year. That is now 16 of 19 winning NFL years. I hope you will keep me in mind for next fall when I come back with more NFL 411 System plays and another winning year.
