SUPER BOWL XLVIII Notes

[Acebb]

Game Notes:
In the first 33 Super Bowls, the spread had come into play only 5 times, but the last 14 have seen 4 such games

The underdog has gone 11-5-2 ATS in the last 18 Super Bowls.

This is the 20th straight year that the previous SuperBowl loser failed to make it back the following season

The Broncos & Seahawks have played 5 common opponents, a total of 10 games. Denver has gone 4-1 SU, & 3-2 ATS, while Seattle has gone the exact same 4-1 SU, & 3-2 ATS. In those games, the Broncos held edges of 15.0 ppg SU, & 3.2 ppg ATS, while the Seahawks had edges of 7.2 ppg SU, & 2.2 ppg ATS.

This is the 5th time (since merger) that the top scoring "O" has faced the top scoring "D" in this game, with the "D" prevailing in 3-of-4 thus far ('90 Giants over Bills; '84 Niners over Dolphins; & '78 Steelers over Cowboys; with the loss being the 55-10 SF rout of Broncos in '89).

 

[Acebb]

Notes on Denver (#1 Offense/ #19 Defense)

· Manning is only the 4th QB to win a conference title, after leading the NFL in PYs & TDs
· This is the 19th time that #1 scoring "O" (Denver) has made it to the Super Bowl (10-8 SU).
· Manning has 3 playoff games with 400+ PYs, sharing that distinction with Brees & Marino.
· Denver had time edges of 35:27-24:33 & 35:44-24:16 in its 2 playoff wins (the Broncos offense reverted to ball control mode in the playoffs)
· New England averaged 12.7 possessions, before being held to 8 by Denver.
· The Broncos punted just once in their playoff wins over the Chargers & Patriots, while suffering no sacks, & recording 6.
· Denver was 17-of-27 in 3rd & 4th down tries in their 2 wins, while allowing 12-of-27
· Denver's 507 yds were the most ever allowed by Belichick-led Patriot squad, & marked the 7th 500+ yd game of the year for the Broncos.
· Manning is 11-11 all-time in playoff contests, & has nine 300+ PY games in the post-season
· RB Moreno had a career year with 1,600+ yds from scrimmage with the highlight being 224 yds (6.1 ypc) rushing vs the Patriots

 

[Acebb]

Notes on Seattle (#17 Offense/ #1 Defense)

· The Seattle defense “travels” well, as the Seahawks have given up only 15.1 ppg on the road, just a bit more than their 14.2 ppg at home.
· Seattle has held 12 foes to 17 pts or less, & 7 opponents to 1 TD or less.
· Seattle is the 1st team since the overpowering '85 Bears to lead the NFL in total & scoring "D", as well as in takeaways (39)
· Seattle was 11-of-31 in 3rd & 4th down efficiency in their 2 playoff wins, while allowing just 9-of-28.
· Wilson joins Kaepernick, Roethlisberger, Brady, Warner, & Marino as the only QBs to start in a Super in their 1st or 2nd year
· Wilson is 27-9 as a starter, tying Roethlisberger for the wins most by a QB in his first 2 years [Note: Wilson has fewer pass attempts than Manning has completions]
· Lynch has 4 playoff TDs of 25+ yds, twice as many as anyone else in NFL history.
· Seattle had time edge of 31:28-28:32 vs the Niners, but a 30:30-29:30 deficit vs the Saints.
· SEA has the #17 3rd Down offense and has allowed 23 sacks in their last 5 games
· SEA has only faced 4 quality passing QB's this year (Luck, Brees, Palmer, Ryan) allowing 216 ypg (60%) with a 7-6 ratio for a 4-2 SU/3-3 ATS record.
· Seattle allowed 100+ yds rushing in 11 of 18 games with an avg of 146 ypg (4.2 ypc)

 

[Acebb]

I think that the Seattle defense is being a bit over hyped here. As you can see, there is no comparison to the early 2000 Ravens or the '85 Bears when you look at the completion % allowed (Schaub 355 yds, 2 TD’s in week 4; Luck & Colts 34 pts week 5) and the rushing yards per game.

I also am having problems (despite being an underdog bettor) backing Wilson. He looked like a deer in the headlights for 1/2 of the NFC Championship game (sack/fumble 1st play) and if it were not for a fluky run backwards, run forwards deep completion after being down 10-0 that got Seattle 1st & goal, you have to wonder how that game finishes.
Additionally, those 2 scrambles where he went 10-15 yards backwards are troublesome.

That said, I can see why the line is where it is. The Denver offense may not be able to play "keep away" all game and Manning has been known to have happy feet.

I also would have problems going with the 70%+ on taking the Broncos...

 

[Acebb]

How has Manning fared against a top-2 pass defense over the last 10 years, regular season and playoffs included?
12 games, 231-of-382, 60.4%, 2,865 yards, 7.5 Y/A, 16 TD, 4 INT, 93.3 rating, 8-4 record
[7 of those games were at home in Indy, four were away, and one was neutral. In the four away games plus the neutral game, Manning was 113-of-188, 60.1%, 6.42 Y/A, 5 TD, 4 INT, 2-3 record]

In the last 10 years, against just top 10 pass defenses by DVOA:
11 games, 281-of-430, 65.3%, 294.8 Y/G, 15 TD, 8 INT, 7.54 Y/A, 6-5 record

Manning's playoff performance like against top six pass defenses in the last decade:
Eight games, 202-of-315, 64.1%, 2,531 yards, 8.03 Y/A, 13 TD, 8 INT, 5-3 record

Credit: http://www.fieldgulls.com/seahawks-...56/peyton-manning-broncos-seahawks-super-bowl

 

[Acebb]

The Super Bowl FAV has won the game 33 of 47 times. (70% straight-up)

This is the 30th straight game Denver has been favored. Denver backers have cashed as the Broncos are 25-4 SU and 20-9 ATS in the previous 29.

Of the 15 games Denver won this year, 14 were by a TD or more.

 

[Acebb]

Pete Carroll: 61% ATS getting points as Seattle head coach.

Seattle: 16-3-1 vs teams with a winning record under Pete.

However, betting Seattle on the road since 2005: 42% ATS and you'd be down betting Seattle ATS on the road since Pete took over.

 

[Acebb]

Having a lot of trouble picking a side here

 

[Acebb]

Battle of the Mush's:

ESPN Hammerin' Hank (50-64-3 YTD): Seattle 22-20

Brandon Lang (record is historically bad): 200 Dimes Denver

:smoking:

 

[Acebb]

Ok, Welker longest reception of the playoffs was 16 against New England.

Welker Yards Per Reception for 2013 was 10.7. Welker's long in the last SB he played in was 19.

I don’t think he gets much space against this secondary.

Prop bet:

W.Welker longest reception under 19½ -115 for Game

 

[JohnnyMags]

OK maybe I can help, although Wilson's inexperience is the one thing that concerns me, I'm sticking with the team that has been money all year long ....SEATTLE. (unless it's fixed, wink wink)

Oh and get a little of that SSB under 2:25.

 

[Acebb]

Yeah Johnny Seattle went 11-5 ATS and Denver went 10-6 and both split playoff games so that's a wash, ATS.

I won't bet the anthem because I have no idea how or who keeps the official time!

Good luck.

 

[~Falco~]

SB 48 and the Total is 48. Total falls exactly on 48, its destiny.

 

[JohnnyMags]

The SSB @under 2:25 is now out of play since they bumped the odds to (-420). I bet this twice once @(-140) and then at (-160) ..... and I guess you know about my Tails.

I got lucky this week getting Kickoff Temp @over 32 when it was (-200) and No snow during game @ (-140). I did my best in my threads to sell them but it's all fun.
I know we bumped heads some but I genuinely do hope you do well with whatever you do today and more importantly have fun.

BOL - 'Go Hawks' ..... (and under)