King Creole
2* BEST BET: NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
1* OVER THE TOTAL
Last year, we got lucky. In each of the previous 4 Super Bowls… we scored a winner with the ‘UNDER’. In the Steelers / Cardinals game last season, we came out with a 3*** Play on the ‘OVER’, With 9 minutes to go in the game, we needed 19 total points. We were very fortunate to get 3 TD’s in that time span, including the game-winner with 35 seconds left. So it seems like we enjoy a little extra ‘mojo’ in the NFL playoffs as far as Lady Luck goes.
First off, we’ll run through the applicable Playoff and Super Bowl Systems and Tendencies that are active on Sunday.
SUPER BOWL:
1-5 ATS for all Super Bowl favorites of 4 > points (Colts).
0-3 ATS for all Super Bowl favorites off a SU home win w/ 100 > rushing yards (Colts).
1-5-1 ATS for all Super Bowl favorites of 3 > points playing off BB double-digit Playoff wins (Colts).
4-0 ATS for all Super Bowl teams who won 8 < games the previous season (SAINTS).
8-0 O/U for all Super Bowl teams who allowed 17 < points and 7 < points in their 2 Playoff wins (Colts).
ALL PLAYOFF games:
11-2 ATS: All PLAYOFF dogs > 3 points playing off a SU win but an ATS loss (SAINTS).
3-0 ATS: All PLAYOFF teams who allowed 150 > rushing yards in their last Playoff win (SAINTS).
4-0 ATS: All PLAYOFF dogs of 4 > points playing off an ATS loss… and 8 < wins the previous year (SAINTS).
7-1 ATS: All PLAYOFF teams off a SU win in which they scored AND allowed 24 < points in their last game (SAINTS).
3-1 ATS: All PLAYOFF teams who scored 31 > points in each of their last 2 Playoff games (SAINTS).
0-3-1 ATS: All PLAYOFF games with an OU line of 47 > points… and an OU line of 40 < points in their previous Playoff game (Colts).
1-4-1 ATS: All PLAYOFF favorites of 3 > points when both teams have a current W/L percentage of .800 > (Colts).
3-9 ATS: All PLAYOFF favorites in the point spread range of –4 to –5.5 points (Colts).
8-1 O/U: All PLAYOFF games with an OU line of > 53 points.
7-0 O/U: All PLAYOFF favorites of 6 < points with BOTH teams playing off a SU home Playoff win that went ‘OVER the TOTAL’ (Colts).
10-0-1 O/U: All PLAYOFF favorites off a SU home win of 13 > points (Colts).
6-1 O/U: All PLAYOFF underdogs off a SU win BUT an ATS loss (Saints).
SCOTT GREEN is the Referee for Super Bowl XliV. The UNDERDOG went 13-3 ATS in his 16 games this season.
As great as Peyton Manning is, he’s not God. His career record in Playoff games is only 9-8 SU. It’s the Underdog QB that actually has the better numbers for the season. In this year’s Playoffs, Drew Brees has a 116.1 rating with 6 TDs and 0 INTs; Manning 104.6, 5 TD, 1 INT. In the regular season, Brees had a passer rating 10 points higher with 5 fewer INTs as well.
Sharp players are always looking for Underdogs that figure to outrush their favored opponent. The Saints had the 6th best rushing offense in the NFL in the regular season, at 120 yds a game. The Colts were dead LAST in the NFL.
While neither of these defenses were much to write home about during the regular season, they have both stepped up their play here in the playoffs. New Orleans held an explosive Arizona offense to 14 points, and one of the NFL's best and most balanced offenses in the Vikings to 28 points. For a team whose defense has been dogged as much as the Saints, these were two very impressive performances. Most important was their pass defense against Minnesota. They held Favre to a 70.0 rating, 1 TD and 2 INTs. They did have some problems with Adrian Peterson, who gave them their 3 other scores. But as mentioned above, what part of Indy's rushing game could even hope to give them that kind of balance? When one looks at the Saints, they don’t see a GREAT defense… but one that is much better than it was the last couple seasons. Outside of the Minnesota game, they only gave up 28 points twice all season- on the road in Washington, and on the road in Miami. In an expected battle of passing yardage, it was actually NEW ORLEANS that held opposing QB’s much MORE in check than Indianapolis. In the Defensive PASSER RATING chart for 2009, we note that the SAINTS were the NFL’s 3rd BEST team. They allowed a passer rating of only 68.5 (behind the Jets and the Bills)…. And only 15 TD passes (while INTERCEPTING Tte ball 26 times!). Meanwhile, the Colts were ranked in the middle of the pack at #13 in this stat. They allowed MORE TD passes than interceptions.
Remember, the Colts won a� LOT of close games this season. SEVEN of their wins were by only 4 points or less. And we’re not talking NFL powerhouses here. Their close wins were against the likes of the Jaguars, 48ers, Dolphins, and Titans.
Final score: NEW ORLEANS 37 / Indianapolis 31.