VR WRITEUPS:
Fellas, I can't say it any simpler than VALUE...Because anyway that you look at this Total, the bottom line is that it's INFLATED...And although that don't always guarantee a win, if you take the value enough...you will always come out ahead in the long run...
This is the Super Bowl, and I expect to see BOTH teams a little tight at the start and more importantly...try to keep this from being a shoot-out because the Colts will want to keep the NO Offense off the field...and with too many 3 and Outs...the Saints know they will be in trouble...
So look for both teams to run a little more than most expect...and chew some clock for us...And as long as some of those drives turn into FG, instead of TD's...we shouldn't have too much trouble getting UNDER this Total...
As scary as it sounds to bet the UNDER when you have the Saints & Colts...with this high of a Total, I don't think there's any better bet on the board...VR
NFL FUTURE OF THE YEAR = NO SAINTS +2000 for 4*s (80 UNITS PENDING)
1. COLTS -200 on ML...30 UNITS
So we will either win 30 UNITS is the COLTS WIN SU...Or Pick up 20 UNITS if SAINTS WIN SU...
The bottom line is that at -200 or even better before Kick-Off...there is just way too much Value to Pass up on an almost -6 Point Fav...And I won't lie, as much as I believe getting the SAINTS at +6 does offer some Value...I have to agree with Billy Walters and all the other Wiseguys who are Unloading on the COLTS ML...That with their experience and other intangibles, they should be able to get the job done...But with that said, there is no way that I would lay the points...Because I can really see this one being a close game...Fortunately, we don't have to because we set ourselves up nicely at the start of the season for this exact reason...VR
For starters...I put this bet up at 57.5, which is what BODOG has the game as well as a handful of Vegas Books...so that you all know to WAIT until as close to Kick-Off to make this bet...Because that's exactly what I plan on doing...And by doing this, we may very well be able to get 58...or even better...VR
Next, because the Lines & ML are so different from Book to Book...It would not be fair for me to post my Prop Bets at the Lines I was able to get...And then grade them accordingly for BetLikeAPro...So instead, I will simply pass along the PROP BETS that we made...And let you know that we bet them for 1/2U on each...VR
Finally, I will also pass along our NFL FUTURE OF THE YEAR HEDGE BET...And let you know what I think about the game and which side I like...Because you know me well enough to know that if I liked my FUTURE, that there was NO way that I would pass up the Value that I have and Hedge...But when I feel that Hedging is the Best Bet..then that's exactly what I will do...So below is the Hedge...Followed by a couple of Props...and then I will also write the 4* Analysis in the next 30min...VR
Fellas, I can't say it any simpler than VALUE...Because anyway that you look at this Total, the bottom line is that it's INFLATED...And although that don't always guarantee a win, if you take the value enough...you will always come out ahead in the long run...
This is the Super Bowl, and I expect to see BOTH teams a little tight at the start and more importantly...try to keep this from being a shoot-out because the Colts will want to keep the NO Offense off the field...and with too many 3 and Outs...the Saints know they will be in trouble...
So look for both teams to run a little more than most expect...and chew some clock for us...And as long as some of those drives turn into FG, instead of TD's...we shouldn't have too much trouble getting UNDER this Total...
As scary as it sounds to bet the UNDER when you have the Saints & Colts...with this high of a Total, I don't think there's any better bet on the board...VR
NFL FUTURE OF THE YEAR = NO SAINTS +2000 for 4*s (80 UNITS PENDING)
1. COLTS -200 on ML...30 UNITS
So we will either win 30 UNITS is the COLTS WIN SU...Or Pick up 20 UNITS if SAINTS WIN SU...
The bottom line is that at -200 or even better before Kick-Off...there is just way too much Value to Pass up on an almost -6 Point Fav...And I won't lie, as much as I believe getting the SAINTS at +6 does offer some Value...I have to agree with Billy Walters and all the other Wiseguys who are Unloading on the COLTS ML...That with their experience and other intangibles, they should be able to get the job done...But with that said, there is no way that I would lay the points...Because I can really see this one being a close game...Fortunately, we don't have to because we set ourselves up nicely at the start of the season for this exact reason...VR
For starters...I put this bet up at 57.5, which is what BODOG has the game as well as a handful of Vegas Books...so that you all know to WAIT until as close to Kick-Off to make this bet...Because that's exactly what I plan on doing...And by doing this, we may very well be able to get 58...or even better...VR
Next, because the Lines & ML are so different from Book to Book...It would not be fair for me to post my Prop Bets at the Lines I was able to get...And then grade them accordingly for BetLikeAPro...So instead, I will simply pass along the PROP BETS that we made...And let you know that we bet them for 1/2U on each...VR
Finally, I will also pass along our NFL FUTURE OF THE YEAR HEDGE BET...And let you know what I think about the game and which side I like...Because you know me well enough to know that if I liked my FUTURE, that there was NO way that I would pass up the Value that I have and Hedge...But when I feel that Hedging is the Best Bet..then that's exactly what I will do...So below is the Hedge...Followed by a couple of Props...and then I will also write the 4* Analysis in the next 30min...VR
LEE KOSTROSKI
Under 36 Pass Attempts by Drew Brees (+105)
- Just 31 pass attempts against the Vikings, despite being behind most of the game and going into overtime
- Just 32 pass attempts vs. Arizona - had 34 rush attempts vs. a weak rush defense. Indy actually has weaker rush defense than Arizona
- Saints average just 33.7 passes per game this season (17th in NFL)
- Colts opponents averaged 36.1 pass attempts per game this entire season
- Surprisingly, the Saints are 9th in the NFL in rush attempts per game.
- Brees had 36 or more attempts in five of New Orleans’ 18 games this season (27%) and one of those games finished in overtime
Under 65.5 rushing yards by Joseph Addai (-115)
- In just 5 of the 15 games that Addai played in he rushed for more than 65.5 yards
- Because of the passing attack, Addai averaged just 14.6 rush attempts per game
- 3.8: the average yards per carry he averaged
- 21: longest run of the season for Addai
- Colts 31st in the NFL in rush attempts per game - just 37.2% of offensive plays
- Colts average just 3.5 ypc
- Manning and Colts gameplan won’t change for this game
- Colts RB Donald Brown had 12 carries last two games and will get a few of Addai’s carries
Under 36 Pass Attempts by Drew Brees (+105)
- Just 31 pass attempts against the Vikings, despite being behind most of the game and going into overtime
- Just 32 pass attempts vs. Arizona - had 34 rush attempts vs. a weak rush defense. Indy actually has weaker rush defense than Arizona
- Saints average just 33.7 passes per game this season (17th in NFL)
- Colts opponents averaged 36.1 pass attempts per game this entire season
- Surprisingly, the Saints are 9th in the NFL in rush attempts per game.
- Brees had 36 or more attempts in five of New Orleans’ 18 games this season (27%) and one of those games finished in overtime
Under 65.5 rushing yards by Joseph Addai (-115)
- In just 5 of the 15 games that Addai played in he rushed for more than 65.5 yards
- Because of the passing attack, Addai averaged just 14.6 rush attempts per game
- 3.8: the average yards per carry he averaged
- 21: longest run of the season for Addai
- Colts 31st in the NFL in rush attempts per game - just 37.2% of offensive plays
- Colts average just 3.5 ypc
- Manning and Colts gameplan won’t change for this game
- Colts RB Donald Brown had 12 carries last two games and will get a few of Addai’s carries
GREGG PRICE
4* Under 56.5/-104
4* Under - We are going under the total here. 56.5 is a lot of points. One team has to get to 30 and the other 27. We just don't see that happening. Minny had a more duel attach, so they chewed up the yards against NO, Indy will run, but not as much, so NO can focus more on the pass. Lets play the under.
4* Under 56.5/-104
4* Under - We are going under the total here. 56.5 is a lot of points. One team has to get to 30 and the other 27. We just don't see that happening. Minny had a more duel attach, so they chewed up the yards against NO, Indy will run, but not as much, so NO can focus more on the pass. Lets play the under.
Kevin Kavitch aka GameBreaker Football
6:25 PM
Indianapolis
New Orleans
Spread Pick
Picked New Orleans with spread of +4.5 (-107)
100 units were wagered.
I'm backing the Saints. They have a dynamic offense that has balance and a running game. Most importantly they have a top flight QB that has played well all year. That gives them a punchers chance in this game. I really liked the way Reggie Bush played with fire in his eyes last week and given the past history and experiences of the Saints, we could have some important intangibles on our side on Sunday. Only the people in the locker room know for sure but I can see it playing out this way. One of my favorite lines has to do with underdogs: "What the odds don't know is this isn't a math test, this is a completely different kind of test, one where passion has a funny way of trumping logic." And make no mistake about it, the Saints do have a punchers chance. The Saints D is healthy unlike other games this season and are capable of creating game changing turnovers. Most people don't realize that Manning has throw far more INTs than Brees this season and the Saints can bring pressure. That will be key in this game. Freeny is a question mark right now and only helps our play is he's limited. I'll take the Saints +4.5 or higher and some books have it at +6. My monitor is posting +4.5 so I'll post it now to get out my play but don't be surprised if you can catch a +6 on Sunday once the public hammers the unstoppable Colts. They'll also remember last week when the Saints could have easily lost to Green Bay. That gave gives us extra value and we've all seen teams have a way of making major adjustments week to week and look very different. The Saints got the jitters out last week, this week they can let it rip in the underdog role. Take New Orleans +4.5 (or higher) for a 3* Play. (Good luck Sunday and check back for a possible totals play depending on the line movement and other factors - maybe a prop wager or 2 also).
6:25 PM
Indianapolis
New Orleans
Spread Pick
Picked New Orleans with spread of +4.5 (-107)
100 units were wagered.
I'm backing the Saints. They have a dynamic offense that has balance and a running game. Most importantly they have a top flight QB that has played well all year. That gives them a punchers chance in this game. I really liked the way Reggie Bush played with fire in his eyes last week and given the past history and experiences of the Saints, we could have some important intangibles on our side on Sunday. Only the people in the locker room know for sure but I can see it playing out this way. One of my favorite lines has to do with underdogs: "What the odds don't know is this isn't a math test, this is a completely different kind of test, one where passion has a funny way of trumping logic." And make no mistake about it, the Saints do have a punchers chance. The Saints D is healthy unlike other games this season and are capable of creating game changing turnovers. Most people don't realize that Manning has throw far more INTs than Brees this season and the Saints can bring pressure. That will be key in this game. Freeny is a question mark right now and only helps our play is he's limited. I'll take the Saints +4.5 or higher and some books have it at +6. My monitor is posting +4.5 so I'll post it now to get out my play but don't be surprised if you can catch a +6 on Sunday once the public hammers the unstoppable Colts. They'll also remember last week when the Saints could have easily lost to Green Bay. That gave gives us extra value and we've all seen teams have a way of making major adjustments week to week and look very different. The Saints got the jitters out last week, this week they can let it rip in the underdog role. Take New Orleans +4.5 (or higher) for a 3* Play. (Good luck Sunday and check back for a possible totals play depending on the line movement and other factors - maybe a prop wager or 2 also).
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
Montreal -115
Coming off yet another shootout defeat, Boston looks to avoid matching a franchise-worst 11-game losing streak Sunday when it visits a Montreal team trying to win its fourth in a row; however, for a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the home side:
Boston outshot opponents 165-111 on a just-completed four-game homestand, but it was outscored 13-7. The Bruins led in all four games - twice by two goals - and suffered three 3-2 shootout losses.
Boston appeared to have a good chance to snap the skid Saturday, leading 2-0 on first-period power-play goals from Zdeno Chara and Ryder, but it couldn’t hold on. Leading 2-1 late in the third, Bruins left wing Milan Lucic overskated the puck allowing Pavol Demitra of the Canucks to tip-in the game-tying goal with 4:42 left in regulation. Demitra then scored the only goal of the shootout.
On the other side of the rink: Jaroslav Halak made 18 saves Saturday after stopping 45 shots in each of the first two games of the winning streak. He is 5-1-1 with a 1.83 goals-against average and one shutout in his last seven starts and 4-2-0 with a 1.82 GAA and two shutouts lifetime against the Bruins.
Montreal is 4-2 its last six at the Bell Centre.
Bottom line: In contrast, Tim Thomas, who has a 3.44 GAA in losing two games to the Canadiens this season, is 0-4-2 with a 3.30 GAA in his last six starts; look for MONTREAL to do just enough in this one to sneak away with the home victory and for Boston to fall to 10-17 (-10.8 units) revenging a loss vs. an opponent.
8* Montreal
Montreal -115
Coming off yet another shootout defeat, Boston looks to avoid matching a franchise-worst 11-game losing streak Sunday when it visits a Montreal team trying to win its fourth in a row; however, for a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the home side:
Boston outshot opponents 165-111 on a just-completed four-game homestand, but it was outscored 13-7. The Bruins led in all four games - twice by two goals - and suffered three 3-2 shootout losses.
Boston appeared to have a good chance to snap the skid Saturday, leading 2-0 on first-period power-play goals from Zdeno Chara and Ryder, but it couldn’t hold on. Leading 2-1 late in the third, Bruins left wing Milan Lucic overskated the puck allowing Pavol Demitra of the Canucks to tip-in the game-tying goal with 4:42 left in regulation. Demitra then scored the only goal of the shootout.
On the other side of the rink: Jaroslav Halak made 18 saves Saturday after stopping 45 shots in each of the first two games of the winning streak. He is 5-1-1 with a 1.83 goals-against average and one shutout in his last seven starts and 4-2-0 with a 1.82 GAA and two shutouts lifetime against the Bruins.
Montreal is 4-2 its last six at the Bell Centre.
Bottom line: In contrast, Tim Thomas, who has a 3.44 GAA in losing two games to the Canadiens this season, is 0-4-2 with a 3.30 GAA in his last six starts; look for MONTREAL to do just enough in this one to sneak away with the home victory and for Boston to fall to 10-17 (-10.8 units) revenging a loss vs. an opponent.
8* Montreal
