Seattle +2.5(-105)
Seattle ML (+115) Took both of these for an equal amount. If I do need the points, which is unlikely, it'll give me a break even day(also unlikely). Seattle opened at -1 or at a pick, and the money came pouring in on Denver. The books should have opened at Denver -3 or 3.5 and they still would have had plenty of Bronco plays. Maybe this line goes to Seattle +3, but I doubt it. The linesmakers know what they're doing and opened this at pretty much an even game.
Denver and Peyton have so much public love. Not many outside of Seattle know much at all about this Seahawk team. Their perception might be that they are great at home, play good defense and that's about it. 78% of the bets are on Denver and this % might increase by game time. If it does go to 3 or better, I'll increase my play. Here are some of my reasons this play makes sense:
1. Neutral field, Metlife Stadium. It'll likely be cold, it's almost always windy, and Seattle should have an advantage with the weather. Peyton has never been that good in poor weather while Seattle plays in it all the time. Manning also doesn't have the zip on his passes he used to(although his skills are still exemplary) and the wind, weather could affect his effectiveness. Seattle is a run first team that will not be as adversely affected by the wind.
2. Seattle's defense is special, not just pretty good. They have incredible depth at almost every spot. The secondary and DL are their best units. The secondary can single cover better than any team in the NFL. This will enable them to blitz occasionally and hurry Manning. If they don't hurry Manning sometimes, they're idiots and don't deserve to win. If New Orleans is a good comparison to Denver, Seattle handled their offense very, very well for 2 games.
3. Denver's defense is not what it should be. Without the many injuries, it is better than average, maybe top 10. Seattle has struggled far more vs. teams with really stout defenses- like Arizona and SF. I think Seattle's offense will be an underrated factor in this game. Reminds me almost of the Tampa-Oakland Super Bowl, or other big games which escape my mind for now. Percy Harvin should play, and Russell Wilson will finally face a much weaker defense than the ones he's faced for the past 4-5 weeks. With 2 weeks to prep, and this being the final game, you'll see Wilson become more mobile, be more likely to run, and generally give Denver's defense fits at times. Just a prediction, but Wilson will be the difference maker in this game.
4. Peyton Manning winning the Super Bowl in Eli's home park, the Manning comeback story, blah, blah, blah- the whole perfect story element here will be used by Seattle. They are under the radar, the underdogs and no one expects Manning to lose in this possible last hurrah. The pressure is off and this team thrives on being in this role.
5. In the past Super Bowls, I don't have the stats on it, but I believe teams with superior defenses have done very well. Peyton will have to have an almost perfect game, in my opinion, to win here.
Seattle ML (+115) Took both of these for an equal amount. If I do need the points, which is unlikely, it'll give me a break even day(also unlikely). Seattle opened at -1 or at a pick, and the money came pouring in on Denver. The books should have opened at Denver -3 or 3.5 and they still would have had plenty of Bronco plays. Maybe this line goes to Seattle +3, but I doubt it. The linesmakers know what they're doing and opened this at pretty much an even game.
Denver and Peyton have so much public love. Not many outside of Seattle know much at all about this Seahawk team. Their perception might be that they are great at home, play good defense and that's about it. 78% of the bets are on Denver and this % might increase by game time. If it does go to 3 or better, I'll increase my play. Here are some of my reasons this play makes sense:
1. Neutral field, Metlife Stadium. It'll likely be cold, it's almost always windy, and Seattle should have an advantage with the weather. Peyton has never been that good in poor weather while Seattle plays in it all the time. Manning also doesn't have the zip on his passes he used to(although his skills are still exemplary) and the wind, weather could affect his effectiveness. Seattle is a run first team that will not be as adversely affected by the wind.
2. Seattle's defense is special, not just pretty good. They have incredible depth at almost every spot. The secondary and DL are their best units. The secondary can single cover better than any team in the NFL. This will enable them to blitz occasionally and hurry Manning. If they don't hurry Manning sometimes, they're idiots and don't deserve to win. If New Orleans is a good comparison to Denver, Seattle handled their offense very, very well for 2 games.
3. Denver's defense is not what it should be. Without the many injuries, it is better than average, maybe top 10. Seattle has struggled far more vs. teams with really stout defenses- like Arizona and SF. I think Seattle's offense will be an underrated factor in this game. Reminds me almost of the Tampa-Oakland Super Bowl, or other big games which escape my mind for now. Percy Harvin should play, and Russell Wilson will finally face a much weaker defense than the ones he's faced for the past 4-5 weeks. With 2 weeks to prep, and this being the final game, you'll see Wilson become more mobile, be more likely to run, and generally give Denver's defense fits at times. Just a prediction, but Wilson will be the difference maker in this game.
4. Peyton Manning winning the Super Bowl in Eli's home park, the Manning comeback story, blah, blah, blah- the whole perfect story element here will be used by Seattle. They are under the radar, the underdogs and no one expects Manning to lose in this possible last hurrah. The pressure is off and this team thrives on being in this role.
5. In the past Super Bowls, I don't have the stats on it, but I believe teams with superior defenses have done very well. Peyton will have to have an almost perfect game, in my opinion, to win here.
