Super Bowl: Picks, Props, Trends & Writeup

[sds23]

I've been too busy lately to get to my write-up for the Super Bowl. So I am hoping that by creating this thead now, that it will give me the kick in the ass I need to make time for a write-up.

So here are some trends to start with (some you've seen I'm sure, hopefully one or two that are new to you). My picks will accompany the write-up, with props to follow.

 

[sds23]

Records, Trends, Etc.

Record SU and ATS

Pittsburgh 14-4 SU, 11-7 ATS
Arizona 12-7 SU, 12-7 ATS

Record Home and Away

Pittsburgh 8-2 home, 6-2 away
Arizona 8-2 home, 4-5 away

SU Trends

Pittsburgh is 8-1 SU in its L9 games
Pittsburgh is 7-3 on grass
Pittsburgh is 6-4 playing outside the division

Arizona is 4-1 SU in its L5 games
Arizona is 6-4 on grass
Arizona is 5-5 playing outside the division

ATS Trends

Pittsburgh is 7-1 ATS in its L8 games
Pittsburgh is 6-4 ATS at home
Pittsburgh is 5-3 ATS on the road
Pittsburgh is 9-7 ATS on grass
Pittsburgh is 2-0 ATS on turf

Arizona is 4-1 ATS in its L5 games
Arizona is 7-3 ATS at home
Arizona is 5-4 ATS on the road
Arizona is 10-5 ATS on grass
Arizona is 2-2 ATS on turf
Arizona is 12-5 ATS vs a team with a winning record

OVER Trends

The total has gone OVER in 10 of Pittsburgh’s L18 games
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Pittsburgh’s L14 games playoff games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh’s L5 games vs Arizona

The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arizona’s L6 games
The total has gone OVER in 13 of Arizona’s L19 gamesl
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Arizona’s L15 games on grass
The total has gone OVER in 23 of Arizona’s L31 games on grass
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona’s L5 games vs Pittsburgh

 

[sds23]

Might as well post one play before the write-up:

3* Over 46.5 110

 

[sds23]

Sorry to be away for so long. I've been pretty sick, along with dealing with sick children at home and then busy with work after missing a few days due to illness.

That write-up and ATS bet that I promised to complete will be posted later this evening when I get home and put some finishing touches to it. Some prop bets wil likely follw as well. I hope everyone has been well and is ready for the big weekend. :toast:

 

[season-push2]

bol in the big game sds $$$$$$ im not betting but i do like the under dispite your play here and do hope you hit it..thanks for a great year of capping and i will see ya next season with a spredsheet im building...Till then TC Pal...Sp:toast:

 

[sds23]

bol in the big game sds $$$$$$ im not betting but i do like the under dispite your play here and do hope you hit it..thanks for a great year of capping and i will see ya next season with a spredsheet im building...Till then TC Pal...Sp:toast:

Thanks SP! Initially I liked the Under too. It seemed like the sharper play for sure. Some of the raw numbers suggest the total should probabaly be in the 43 to 44 point range . But I am trusting my gut on this one. BOL to you my friend. Enjoy the big game and take care if we don't talk much between now and next season. :toast:

 

[sds23]

Write-Up

Arizona Coaching Staff<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comfficeffice" /><o></o>
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When Bill Cowher retired from coaching after winning the Super Bowl in 2006, most assumed that Steeler management would look in house for his replacement. The early favorite appeared to be Cowher’s offensive coordinator, Ken Whisenhunt. Cowher's offensive line coach, Russ Grimm, also seemed to be in the hunt, but to lesser degree. So it seemed a bit odd when Whisenhunt suddenly took the Arizona job and the Steelers subsequently named Mike Tomlin as Bill Cowher’s replacement. And later, fact proved to indeed be stranger than fiction when the true details of what transpired finally emerged.<o></o>
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As it ends up, Whisenhunt agreed to be the head coach of the Cardinals as soon as he learned that the Steelers were preparing to give Cowher's the job to Grimm. A few days later, on a Saturday, Grimm's home phone rang and he was congratulated by an inside source and told that an official announcement would soon be forthcoming. But here’s where things took an unexpected twist: the very next day when the Steelers official announcement came it was Mike Tomlin, not Grimm, who was named as the Pittsburgh head coach. Grimm's reaction was swift and simple: by Monday he had packed his things and already left Pittsburgh to go to join Whisenhunt in Arizona.<o></o>
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These were strange events indeed, but very fortunate events for the Arizona Cardinals. Because according to Arizona general manager Rod Graves, the Cardinals were looking to make dramatic changes in philosophy and direction. Top level organizational leaders wanted to "mirror Steeler football" and reinvent themselves using Pittsburgh inspired principles and processes. So imagine the level of excitement in Arizona when Whisenhunt accepted the Arizona head coaching position and Russ Grimm followed shortly after. How ironic, for both cities, that these teams and coaches now find themselves playing the last game of the season and squaring off for the ultimate prize.<o></o>
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The reason for the quick recant of what happened two years ago is because my very first initial thoughts about this season's Super Bowl immediately gravitated towards Ken Whisenhunt versus his former team. I realize that the Steelers have now taken on Mike Tomlin's personality and this is a different team than the one Whisenhunt left, but Whisenhunt does still have intimate knowledge about Pittsburgh’s personnel and their individual tendencies. Both Whisenhunt and Grimm have such knowledge in addition to all the extra personal motivation in the world to exhaust every resource in an attempt to beat their former team on Sunday.<o></o>
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It comes as no surprise that everyone was on their best behavior these past two weeks in front of the media in order to avoid giving the opposition any bulletin board type material before the big game. So of course Ken Whisenhunt and Ben Roethlisberger did a great job dodging the topic of a feud between them which supposedly dates back to Whisenhunt's tenure as his offensive coordinator. While things were kept pretty quiet then, it was apparent that something was going on shortly after Whisenhunt left the Steelers when he stated that Roethlisberger "lacked confidence" at crucial times when the stage or the moment was big. Big Ben responded by saying "I don’t agree" and giving us a bit of insight by adding "There were a lot of things I didn't agree with Ken about." Then a year later, when Pittsburgh traveled to Arizona and lost, by all accounts Roethlisberger was said to have gone to great lengths to avoid Whisenhunt before and after the game ~ a game in which he was intercepted twice and barely completed 50% of his passes.<o></o>
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Now, I would not go as far as to say that Whisenhunt is in Roethlisberger's head, but I definitely think that Whisenhunt knows exactly which buttons to push. He knows how to make Ben feel uncomfortable and will be looking to turn up the heat in the Super Bowl. Potentially making this an even easier task is the fact that Roethlisberger did not play very well in his first Super Bowl appearance. Despite winning the game he was devastated with his poor play and will probably find it hard to resist the urge to want to prove something on his return trip. Some say that Big Ben is not exactly the "sharpest tool in the shed", but even he must realize and hear the widespread public perception that the Steelers have gotten to both Super Bowls mainly due to their dominating defense. And deep in their hearts and in their most honest moments, even the most die-hard Pittsburgh fans have to be fearful that they will witness Roethlisberger pressing too hard in an effort redeem past mistakes, change public perception and beat his former mentor with whom he has a rocky history.<o></o>
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Maybe you buy this angle, maybe you don’t. But whether or not Roethlisberger is feeling any pressure prior to the game, Whisenhunt is certainly going to make sure he feels pressure during the game. Whisenhunt has first-hand knowledge of what types of things make him feel most uncomfortable. He knows what kinds of defenses, coverage schemes and blitz packages will work best against his former pupil. Whisenhunt gives his opportunistic defense an above average chance to continue building upon their plus-9 turnover differential in the postseason.<o></o>
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In the 2007 game between Arizona and Pittsburgh, the Cardinals limited Roethlisberger 17 completions in 32 attempts, picked him off twice and sacked him four times. They also limited Willie Parker to 37 yards on 19 carries.<o></o>
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In addition to having intimate knowledge of Pittsburgh's offensive players, Arizona's offense should also be well prepared for Dick Lebeau's zone blitzes as a direct result of Whisenhunt's first hand experience. After all, he is only a couple of years removed from facing LeBeau's defense and schemes in OTAs and practices on a daily basis. And even if you want to debate how much or how little of an advantage this actually gives Arizona, there is no denying that it gives them an added advantage when combined with offensive coordinator Todd Haley's ability to devise specific plays and schemes custom tailored from studying their opponent’s tendencies.<o></o>
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The most recent example of this was the NFC Championship game. Haley preplanned various calls and plays designed to take advantage of Philadelphia’s eagerness to attack the line and swarm to the ball on running plays. One play, for instance, was called the "Philly Special" and was designed to entice their secondary to commit to the run. Essentially it was a very typical looking flea-flicker, but in this case the devil was in the details: the exact choreography used and the exact area of the field to which it was run was based upon film based research of individual tendencies of the Eagles defensive players. If Haley is doing stuff like this based on normal film study, then imagine what he can do with Whisenhunt’s and Grimm’s inside first-hand knowledge?<o></o>
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In any case, I find it pretty interesting that the team who wanted to mold itself after the Pittsburgh Steelers finds itself playing against the Pittsburgh Steelers in the Super Bowl. And in case you have not noticed, these Cardinals are finally playing with the toughness that Whisenhunt and Grimm have been demanding over the last two seasons and with an attitude and swagger that none of us have ever seen from a Cardinal team before.<o></o>
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Arizona Quarterback Play<o></o>
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This is Kurt Warner's third Super Bowl appearance and he comes to Tampa Bay already owning two of the most prolific passing games in Super Bowl history (414 yards in the 2000 and 365 in 2002). Over his career, Warner has won two MVPs (1999 and 2001), a Super Bowl MVP (1999) and has passed for over 28,000 yards, 182 touchdowns and a 93.8 career passer rating. And although it has been awhile between trips, Warner’s playoff career stats are just as impressive. Over his career Warner is 8~2 in the postseason, with nearly 3,000 passing yards and a 97.3 passer rating.<o></o>
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What makes him great and what will give Warner the best chance versus the Pittsburgh blitz is his ability to make quick decisions. Although he is not very nimble, Warner knows how to get rid of the ball quickly when he has to and usually ends up making intelligent decisions. He showed us a preview of this against the Eagles in the NFC Conference Championship. He handled the Philly blitz schemes by rapidly identifying pressure, making quick reads and then intelligently delivering the ball. There are not too many blitzes that Warner has not seen over the course of his career and he always seems to know exactly where the pressure is coming from. But make no mistake, Pittsburgh is certain to get their licks in. Warner will definitely find himself in some inescapable situations and will take some shots. But then he will do exactly what he has always done: He will stand in the pocket, ignoring the pressure with his eyes downfield, taking the hit when necessary while delivering the ball. And then he will continue to get up, dust off his jersey and do it again and again.<o></o>
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Arizona Receiving Corp<o></o>
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Only one question: How in the hell do you cover a guy that doesn’t even need to be open to catch the ball? Larry Fitzgerald will be by far the most dangerous talent wearing cleats on Sunday. Once considered just a sideline threat and a field stretcher, Fitzgerald has been challenged by his coaches for the last two years to become more. Instead of always playing the sideline, he was asked to line up in the slot and to run different patterns that exposed him to new areas of the field. And the dividends are clearly paying off. Fitzgerald has already broken Jerry Rice's postseason receiving yards record, and will have a chance to pad his record setting 419 postseason total with whatever damage he inflicts in the Super Bowl. Fitzgerald and can pretty much do it all when it comes to receiving and has proven to be unstoppable during the postseason. He has incredible hands and great athleticism. But it is his unearthly jumping ability that has allowed him to take it to a whole new level and allows Warner to get Larry the ball even when he is well covered. Ever since his days at the University of Pittsburgh, we’ve seen that all-too familiar image of him leaping over the heads of defenders, stretching his reach as far as he can and making the sure-handed grab. And it seems like he makes the catch every single time. Actually noted for having small hands, I’d argue that inch-for-inch, Fitz has the best hands in the NFL.<o></o>
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Look, there’s no doubt in my mind that mad-scientist Dick Lebeau will be doing his best to thwart the Cardinal pass attack with the best defense in the NFL carrying out his genius schemes. But here’s the rub: At best all you can hope to do is to slow down or somewhat contain Larry Fitzgerald. But doing so or attempting to do so will require you to sacrifice coverage and manpower on other areas of the field. And that’s a pretty risk with Anquan Boldin lining up on the opposite side of the field. It seems hard to believe anyone could ever forget about a guy as talented as Boldin, but that’s essentially what you’d have to do if you decide to devote special attention towards locking up Fitzgerald. Boldin is every bit as talented as Fitzgerald is, albeit in a different manner (think "bull in a china shop"). But it is Boldin's ability to run after the catch as a result of his physicality and athleticism that makes him shine on game day. Boldin is now healthier than he’s been at any point so far in the postseason, which makes him every bit as deadly as Fitzgerald.<o></o>
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And don't sleep on Steve Breaston either. What makes Breaston great is not his hands, his speed or his athleticism. He is a trusted target for Warner because of his toughness and willingness to make the tough catch across the middle. Steve Breaston, Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald all surpassed 1,000 and 75 receptions each during the regular season. I’ve seen teams occasionally sporting a pair of 1,000 yard receivers, but three 1,000 yard receivers? That spells trouble for any defense, even the best one in the NFL.<o></o>
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Attacking The Middle<o></o>
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It's nearly impossible to find a flaw in Pittsburgh’s defense, but they do occasionally look a bit slow in the middle of the field. In fact, opposing teams have done well when isolating their skill players on the Steelers inside linebackers, especially 33-year old James Farrior. Opposing running backs and other skill position players have made significant gains and key plays by outrunning him in coverage. Expect to see Steve Breaston looking to expose this matchup by running routes across the middle. Arizona running backs JJ Arrington and Tim Hightower will be also factors in the receiving game, releasing into areas vacated by defenders trying to keep pace with Fitz and Boldin.
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Arizona Offense Evolving<o></o>
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In a short answer, look no further than Arizona’s mega time-consuming drive in the fourth quarter of the NFC Championship. That was a deliberate, patient, confident 14-play drive that gave me one more reason to believe in this team and to trust what I was witnessing over the course of the postseason. Further illustrating an evolved offense, Arizona has opted to run the ball 59 percent of the time on first and second downs in the postseason. This is a dramatic increase from the 37 percent of the time that they ran on those down during the regular season. And similar increases are also seen on other traditional running down and distances (i.e., third and short, goal line, etc.). Such a change indicates that Whisenhunt has successfully instilled a grittier, nastier playoff attitude in his team. Do I think they will be able to run with a lot of success against the Steelers? Of course not. But I do think that Arizona has enough confidence and commitment to the run to not abandon it and to use it when they need to do so. <o></o>
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Turnover Battle<o></o>
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Postseason statistics indicate that Arizona has a great chance to win the all important turnover category on Sunday. Even the regular season numbers make it close, with the Steelers (30 takeaways) barely edging the Cardinals (29 takeaways) by single turnover. But this is not the regular season and it is the astounding 11 takeaways that Arizona has already accumulated so far in the postseason and their +9 turnovers overall that make a convincing case for them winning the turnover battle in the Super Bowl.<o></o>
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Pittsburgh’s Offense<o></o>
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With all due respect to the Pittsburgh backers, the Steelers offense is far from stellar. At best, the Steelers offense is conservative and methodical. They want to establish the run, control the clock, use Hines Ward to pick up third and long and take the occasional deep shot downfield to Nate Washington or Holmes. Like I said, conservative and methodical, which should only makes it easier for the Cardinals to draw upon and implement actionable defensive gameplans based on Whisenhunt’s and Grimm’s intimate knowledge of the Pittsburgh offensive personnel. The Steelers rely too heavily on their defense and had to come from behind often during the regular season to win games. In fact, Pittsburgh has won fewer than half of their games by more than one score. Why would the Super Bowl any different? And how is this offense going to keep pace with the Cardinals? This is not a team that is built to make dramatic comebacks. The largest deficit they overcame all season was the 10 point deficit to Dallas. Despite numerous comebacks this season, other than the Dallas game, all of those comebacks were of the 3 point, 2 point and 1 point variety.<o></o>
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Pittsburgh's O-Line<o></o>
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In addition to several question marks on the Pittsburgh O-Line, Ben Roethlisberger exacerbates any O-Line limitations by holding onto the ball too long. During the regular season the Steelers O-Line gave up the 4th most sacks in the NFL (49). And in their last postseason game versus the Ravens they gave up four sacks. To the Steelers credit, they have worked hard all season long at improving the O-Line play and have definitely come a long way. But this is a group who has a glaring weakness when it comes to recognizing blitzing linebackers and other specifically disguised blitz schemes. Teams like Dallas, Philly and Baltimore did a great job of bringing pressure up the middle by disguising their intentions. And believe it or not, few teams in the NFL are as varied and creative in creating pressure than the Arizona Cardinals. Defensive Coordinator Clancy Pendergast has even been criticized for being “too creative” at times, but with the help of Whisenhunt’s and Grimm’s intimate knowledge the Cardinals defense will certainly mentally test Pittsburgh’s O-Line on Sunday. Looks for defensive ends Bertrand Berry and Antonio Smith to provide the pass rush and defensive tackle Darnell Dockett to be disruptive in all phases of the game.<o></o>
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Nothing To Lose Attitude<o></o>
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Arizona is a team that has played its best football when things looked to be at their worst. How many times did we count them out during the regular season? Whether it be counting them out of an individual game or counting them out of the entire season as a whole, this a team that has endured and prevailed. Remember the Dallas game when they choked away up a 10-point lead and seemed to have lost all momentum? They responded calmly in OT to claim the victory. Then in December the Cardinals lost two games by a combined score of 21 to 82 and things seemed to definitely be at their worst. Their playoff worthiness and hopes were called into question and theu were basically dismissed in the eyes of many. But as usual, just when things looked to be at their darkest, the Cardinals took their cue to go rip off four straight victories on route to the Super Bowl and becoming the hottest team in the NFL. Naturally their crazy postseason run was punctuated with a win versus Philly that totally fit the script ~ a game in which they allowed the Eagles to tie a record for the greatest comeback in NFC Championship history, only to then calmly respond with that slow, methodical, time consuming fourth quarter scoring drive to all but seal the deal.<o></o>
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What more can happen to this team? Do you think there are any situations that genuinely scare this group anymore? Look, this is a weird game and I will respect anyone for honestly believing that either team could easily win this Super Bowl. But the Cardinals are not scared of anything, they are playing with house money and are now walking with a serious swagger. I have found it very easy to dismiss my prejudices from the regular season and to accept what this team is showing us in the postseason.<o></o>
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This is a team that literally had a "Come To Jesus" moment after getting their asses kicked in New England. Due to a refueling issue, the it took over 11 hours to get back to Arizona, which forced them to let the sting of that loss sink in deep. Whisenhunt piggybacked the message by deviating from common late season NFL philosophy and making the Cardinals put the pads back on for full contact drills and practice. The result was a sudden turn around and commitment to playoff toughness. The result was four straight wins and a team that believes they can beat anyone.




[Obvioulsy my play is ARIZONA +7.....but I am watching this number closely and hoping to do better in regard to the number and/or juice before gametime. I will post my final number and unit size when I lock it in.]

 

[Gatorbait37]

arty:arty:arty:

I Luv it!!!

 

[sds23]

arty:arty:arty:

I Luv it!!!

BOL on Sunday Gator!

 

[sds23]

Super Bowl Card

3* ARI +7 120
3* ARI +3.5 (1H) 105
3* Over 46.5 110

 

[sds23]

[Forgive me Woody!!]

 

[billhill999]

Might as well post one play before the write-up:

3* Over 46.5 110

Like it also, good thought out thread.
:toast:

 

[sds23]

Like it also, good thought out thread.
:toast:

Thanks Bill ~ BOL with all your action tomorrow buddy!

 

[sds23]

Player Prop Bets

1* E. James OV 49.5 yards rushing +110
1* E. James OV 14 rushing attempts +140
1* K. Warner OV 62% completion % -110
1* H. Ward OV 69.5 yards receiving +105
1* H. Ward OV 5 total receptions -105

Team Total Bets

2* ARI TT OV 20 points -135
2* ARI TT (1H) OV 10 poiints -135

Both Teams Commbined Prop Bets

1* Total Number QB Sacks OV 5.5 (EV)
1* Total Number INTs OV 2.5 +130

Odds & Ends

1* Times NBC Shows Brenda Warner OV 2.5 +135

 

[sds23]

National Anthem Prop

Not sure if I would touch this one, but it seems like the Under may be a sharp play on the National Anthem prop bet. The following link made a strong case for playing "Over" back when the line was 1 minute and 54 seconds. But now that the number is up to 2 minutes and 1 second, the Under is appealing, especially when past performances at sporting events by the same singer have averaged 1 minute and 58 seconds: http://stocklemon.blogspot.com/2009/01/super-bowl-xliii-prop-bet-national.html

 

[METFAN]

good luck i see we're on the same side and total

:toast:

 

[sds23]

good luck i see we're on the same side and total

:toast:

Thanks MET and BOL to you also my friend. Have a great Sunday and enjoy the game!

 

[METFAN]

THANKS YOU TOO SEAN. I'M GOING TO HAVE TO TAIL YOU ON THE ZONA TEAM OVER 10 FIRST HALF. IF THAT DOESN'T HAPPEN , IT WILL BE A VERY LONG DAY FOR ME

I'M STUCK WITH ZONA 6 PITT 5 IN THE BIG POOL
AND ZONA 6 PITT 7 IN THE SMALLER POOL:toast:

 

[sds23]

Super Bowl Card

Sides & Totals
3* ARI +7 120
3* ARI +3.5 (1H) 105
3* Over 46.5 110

Team Totals
2* ARI TT OV 20 points -135
2* ARI TT (1H) OV 10 poiints -135

Prop Bets
1* E. James OV 49.5 yards rushing +110
1* E. James OV 14 rushing attempts +140
1* K. Warner OV 62% completion % -110
1* H. Ward OV 69.5 yards receiving +105
1* H. Ward OV 5 total receptions -105
1* Total Number QB Sacks OV 5.5 (EV)
1* Total Number INTs OV 2.5 +130
1* Times NBC Shows Brenda Warner OV 2.5 +135

 

[sds23]

THANKS YOU TOO SEAN. I'M GOING TO HAVE TO TAIL YOU ON THE ZONA TEAM OVER 10 FIRST HALF. IF THAT DOESN'T HAPPEN , IT WILL BE A VERY LONG DAY FOR ME

I'M STUCK WITH ZONA 6 PITT 5 IN THE BIG POOL
AND ZONA 6 PITT 7 IN THE SMALLER POOL:toast:

I know exactly what you mean Steve. Statistically speaking it looks like ARI will get a lead in the first half. If they don't, well then I guess it will be a very stressful day for us. Obviously, I like the chances of that happening and say that we are on the right side of this ~ but if by chance PIT shuts this team down I won't be pissed ~ I will tip my hat to that defense and will be entertained by watching it unfold.

BOL with all your action brother. Win or lose enjoy the game and the company around you. :toast: