Super Bowl analysis by BIZ

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Biz

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I've read a lot of comments about the better team being favored, its NYG or nothing, how can anyone bet on the Patriots. Can we put a stop to the phrase "wrong side favored"??

I'm on New England. I'll lay the 2.5. I'll take the over too. Here are my reasons.

First, the Giants are getting way too much credit for their recent winning streak. Are they playing well?? Absolutely. They can run the ball, Manning is playing well. They pressure the passer. No doubt, they are playing well and deserve to be here. Its been mentioned that NE hasn't really beaten anyone this year. Who exactly has NYG defeated??

- I see the win at NE, impressive win that could have gone either way. Eli made the plays down the stretch, full credit.
- Next week a loss to SF, tough spot traveling across country after a road win. They won the stat sheet but lost the game.
- 3 more losses, including a last minute loss to GB. So 4 losses in a row.
- They won at Dallas where the Cowboys gift wrapped the game to them. Down 12 with 5 minutes or so left, Dallas imploded. But, NYG made the plays to win. I wouldn't say beating this Dallas team is that impressive.
- Get whipped at home vs Washington.
- Beat an overrated Jets team, Sanchez isn't good.
- Beat the same overrated Dallas team to make the playoffs.

Where are the impressive wins?? Playoffs:

- Beat an Atlanta team that played 11 games indoors this year. They struggle outdoors, and were awful vs NYG. Solid win for NYG, but seriously, Atlanta is a very mediocre team outdoors.

- Beat a GB team that was out of sync, rusty from a 3 week layoff, had injury issues to their OL and Jennings. They played well, beat the team that was out there. Its not their fault GB had issues, solid performance but circumstances were made to order for them.

- Beat SF, thanks to 2 fumbled punts. They were shut out in the second half without them, and you can talk about a slow field all day. I'm not buying it. What, NY is some offensive juggernaut that would have walked all over one of the top defenses in the league?? Ridiculous.

They deserve to be here. Very resilient team. Not seeing how they are the better team and should be favored.

Belichick has 2 weeks to prepare for this game. Lately, their defense has been playing better than their season long rankings. They've switched to a 3-4, are using different fronts, confusing blocking schemes. They have trouble pressuring the QB at times, but Belichick will devise schemes and blitz packages to bother Manning. He was bothered by the SF blitz and I feel Belichick will come up with multiple packages to confuse Manning. NY will get their share of points, but it won't be as easy as some think it will.

NE has been beaten the last 2 times they've played. Again, I think that with 2 weeks to prepare they will find a way to neutralize the NYG rush to a degree. It could involve chipping with a back or TE, screen passes, mis-direction, etc.. There is a reason that the team that lost the first game wins the re-match. The winning team doesn't change, if it aint broke why fix it? The losing team makes adjustments, comes up with new ideas and schemes to counter what was unsuccessful the first time.

Every team has motivation at this point. Its the Super Bowl. NY ruined immortality for NE 4 years ago, have beaten them this year, and are running their mouths ad nauseum all week. NE has the inspiring story of the late Mrs. Craft. Some how, some way NE gets it done.

I think Brady has a big game. Its on a fast track, and the NE receivers will catch plenty of passes. Gronkowski will get taped up, shot up, and make plays. Brady has multiple weapons and will use them all. He will soften up the defense, and then NE will run the ball effectively, gaining nice chunks of yardage when they do choose to run. Deion Branch will catch a few long passes, maybe taking one in for a score. Welker will catch 10 or so balls today, Hernandez will play a big role. I even see Ocho-Cinco catching balls and making plays, wouldn't be surprised to see him score today. I see a game with plenty of scoring, and see NE scoring more than NYG. Wouldn't be surprised to see NE up 14 at some point in the second half. Patriots 37 - NYG 30.

I hope you all enjoy the game and have a great time with friends eating, drinking, and gambling.
 

Biz

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Im on NE as well, but I disagree with discrediting some of those NYG wins.

Just curious, but what would you disagree with?? Not looking for an argument, just your opinion.
 

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Not So Fast

Let's be honest. SF fumbled the ball twice and helped NYG win. Using that same logic the Ravens with a dropped ball in the end zone and a missed field goal for OT should have beat the Pats. These teams are extrmeemly even except the Pats defense sucks ass. Look at the passes Flaco threw that torched the Pat's defense. Look at how NY scored against the SF defense, an awesome defense. I am in NYG -3. Good luck!

Cat
 

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sure they might or should have lost to the 69ers but what about balt missed fg?
 

Biz

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sure they might or should have lost to the 69ers but what about balt missed fg?

My point was that NYG wins are overvalued. Everyone jumping all over them, saying look who they beat. I'm saying the wins are overvalued, and gave my reasoning.

Cat,
NYG didn't exactly light up the SF defense. They were shut out for a half were it not for 2 botched punt returns. NYG defense isn't all that either. This team is overvalued right now, and when Brady and company score 30+ lets see what everyone thinks of this vaunted NYG defense.
 

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they both are overvalued imo. it is too bad we have to watch 1 team that got hot and the other team (pats) that had the easiest sched this year
 

Biz

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Agree, would much rather watch teams that can actually play some defense
 

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