Patriots will wear their road white jerseys in Super Bowl LII against the Philadelphia Eagles, per @MikeReiss. The team wearing white jerseys has won the Super Bowl in 12 of the previous 13 seasons, per @EpKap.
Trends have factors hidden in them that fade public opinion from prior betting habits.
For trends to be predictable, they need built-in stats that falsely provide the end result perception for the bettor to lose.
You cant have underdogs go 9-1 without first having a false favorite to be called a favorite. In all football games there was betting history that produced the perception of a team being bet on consistently. Whether its their winning record, the winning margins, or the team that wins money ATS when favored.
Pats are the extreme profile. Most teams that are favored have all the same betting characteristics. Occasionally there are teams that public doesnt like that is favored and the dog gets all the action.
Vikes were hot and bet on hard. Weeks of winning streak produced the heavy betting on them. Even with Keenum at QB they looked like they were unbeatable. Since Bradford was the original starter and was injured, Keenum had no pressure to replace a starter that was never a threat in his last several years. Vikings also had a "dominating defense" to go with the low-risk of losing.
Now we have the Eagles who suffered that similar fate in losing Wentz. All of a sudden, Foles played like he was reborn. Is this another Kurt Warner story?
Foles faced 2 winning playoff teams (with one (1) unproven quarterback) who had winning records. Falcons lose in 15-10 game to Eagles.
Pats played Falcons again in October and won 23-7.
Atlanta doesn't have the defense that Philly has. Can Philly stop Brady? Falcons couldn't.
Brady still has some magic, but with age, is bound to run out of that magic. The only way that happens, is if the Eagles do what it takes on defense. Foles will be chased like the Pats pressured Bortles. Question is...can Foles play better than Bortles did. In a neutral-site dome I think so.
Yeah, they must've never seen him play. They'll enter the game having studied no film, having never spoken or thought of him and they'll be the first people on planet earth to not see it coming.
You lose money when you bet with this kind of broken sensationalist headline-style logic. And that's not even taking into account the fact that it's not just Brady. This site isn't about the usual narrative marketing bullshit so let's be straight-it's Belichick, and the team. Brady is a great quarterback but any great QB could've won 5 rings with that team and that historically shit division. If Philly doesn't see something coming it'll be a surprise to us, too.
And don't act like a good defense hasn't fucked up Brady before. It's happened all the way from Denver in what? 05? To the Giants embarrassing him twice. He's great but he's not nearly as good as the marketing yuppies would have you believe. Get in his face and he's not even top ten all time.
Philly guy here. I have the utmost respect for Brady and Belichek. Unlike a lot of fans outside of NE, I really enjoy watching Tom and Co. do what they do. Guy was a 6th rounder and plays with a chip on his shoulder 18 years later still. He is a master of the comeback and rallying the Pats to do amazing things. That's the essence of sport to me. I love it.
With all that said. I bleed Philly green. Always have and always will. The homer in me can see all sorts of angles for Philly to take this thing on Feb 4th. I believe they can and I will probably come close to a heart attack watching the damn game. I have been behind Nick Foles since Wentz went down. I knew he was capable of good things. But I am not depending on it, nor factoring it into the SB. Nick will need to put together at least a half season of consistent good play before he enters into any capping I do. What I am hoping he can accomplish on Feb 4th, is not lose the game with a fumble or a ill advised pass at a critical point in the game. As a homer, and as a believer that he is capable of good things - I lean towards Nick not losing the game. I am certainly not counting on him to win it though. If he does... I will jump thru my roof... but I ain't counting on it.
What I am counting on is the Philly D to keep the game close. If Foles doesn't lose the game and the Philly D keeps the Pats in check - we gotta shot at this thing. Of course when Brady is coming with guns blazing in the 4th I am going to be shitting bricks. I know what the man can do when the game is on the line. Ain't nobody better. But this ain't Brady vs. the Eagles. I think Philly has enough to win the other battles on the field and bring home the first football championship in 58 years.
With all that said. I bleed Philly green. Always have and always will. The homer in me can see all sorts of angles for Philly to take this thing on Feb 4th. I believe they can and I will probably come close to a heart attack watching the damn game. I have been behind Nick Foles since Wentz went down. I knew he was capable of good things. But I am not depending on it, nor factoring it into the SB. Nick will need to put together at least a half season of consistent good play before he enters into any capping I do. What I am hoping he can accomplish on Feb 4th, is not lose the game with a fumble or a ill advised pass at a critical point in the game. As a homer, and as a believer that he is capable of good things - I lean towards Nick not losing the game. I am certainly not counting on him to win it though. If he does... I will jump thru my roof... but I ain't counting on it.
What I am counting on is the Philly D to keep the game close. If Foles doesn't lose the game and the Philly D keeps the Pats in check - we gotta shot at this thing. Of course when Brady is coming with guns blazing in the 4th I am going to be shitting bricks. I know what the man can do when the game is on the line. Ain't nobody better. But this ain't Brady vs. the Eagles. I think Philly has enough to win the other battles on the field and bring home the first football championship in 58 years.
Line just dropped to Philly +4.5 in several offshore books & one or two Vegas casinos.
Boo hoo.......
Lol, yeah, like the white jerseys in college bowls, once they start to advertise it everywhere, it falls apart.
The referenced bettor here, by the way, picked all six 2017*World Series*games correctly before cashing out with $14 million prior to Game 7. So they have a track record of success.
Eagles fans will sure hope this bettor is right about their pick this time as well.
I have always found the Mexican tourist cities to be very safe. In fact I read an article in the economist a year ago about how important the Tourism trade is in Mexico that the certain cities are actually safe zones ....PV, Maz, Cancun etc...Here's a link from trip adviser discussing the topic.
https://www.tripadvisor.ca/ShowTopi...847-Travel_safety-Mazatlan_Pacific_Coast.html
On a football note - this line moves down 5.5 5 not key numbers not really an issue ...it does say one thing that the early money is on the Eagles ...when the public starts betting it may go back up.
I was speaking with my cousin the other day - I place a Superbowl bet for him - it is usually my recommendation - This year I told him the play was the eagles +6, his response was "okay but can I split my bet between the eagles and the Pats ML".....So I ran through some different scenarios for him and eventually he came around and just bet the Eagles.
I post this because I think it's an example of how the super casual bettor who just needs action because he is at a party views the Patriots (they cant lose in their eyes).
Fly Eagles Fly
New England's SB appearances going back to 2002.
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2002 Won by 3
2004 Won by 3
2005 Won by 3
2008 Lost by 3
2012 Lost by 4
2015 Won by 4
2017 Won by 6
What do I take away from this? NE plays doeesnt blow teams out in the SB and (I am assuming, didnt check yet) the line comes into play a lot more in the SB than the regular season with the Pats. Its odd but those are the numbers.
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2002 Won by 3
2004 Won by 3
2005 Won by 3
2008 Lost by 3
2012 Lost by 4
2015 Won by 4
2017 Won by 6
What do I take away from this? NE plays doeesnt blow teams out in the SB and (I am assuming, didnt check yet) the line comes into play a lot more in the SB than the regular season with the Pats. Its odd but those are the numbers.
Patriots are 27-9 SU & 18-18 ATS in the playoffs under Brady/Belichick era.........they're 5-2 SU & 3-4 ATS in SB's
MGM now -4.5 (+100).......several other books in Vegas down to -4.5 (-110)
Any super bowl team who won SU as a dog in the championship game is 7-2 SU and 9-0 ATS in the super bowl since 2001.......
