Let's look at what the trends say....
First of all we know from last year how the team fares if their qb ends up being the league mvp, 0-7-2 ats in the bowl since 97 and 4-12-3 ats overall, so I'm waiting to see if either Ryan or Brady get it tonight.
The line...
Atlanta vs New England (3) 58.5...
I mentioned in week 17 (based on the 20pt # system) and (the fast start system) that the nyg would beat ne in the bowl, but the Giants fell out...so now what falls for who?
The fast start...
The 6 requirements that were shared by the last 11 Super Bowl winners after the 1st 4 games...
1) a su record of 2-2 or better
2) won at least 1 game su by dd
3) scored 20+pts a game at least twice
4) were favored at least 3 times
5) scored at least 80pts combined
6) surrendered less than 100pts combined
Of the last 11 sb winners, 9 met all six requirements, 2 met 5 of the six..
New England met all 6 this year, Atlanta only 4 of the 6...NEW ENGLAND-3
Since 95 all playoff teams who scored 40+pts in a playoff game have went 4-25 ats in the following round (atl scored 44 in cc game)...NEW ENGLAND-3
Defensive consistency...of the 2 sb teams, the team who has held their opponents to 3pts or less the most times during the regular season has a definite edge, if that team has a 2 or more game advantage in # of games they have won 11 of the last 15 su...Atlanta 0 times, New England 3 times...NEW ENGLAND-3
The sb team with the better regular season record is 0-11 ats in last 11 since 2003 (twice the records were identical)...Atlanta 11-5, New England 14-2...ATLANTA +3
Including the team with the better reg sea record going 1-8 su in the last 9 since 05...ATLANTA +3
Since 2002 the underdog in the bowl is 12-3 ats...ATLANTA +3
Super Bowl favorites of 5pts or less are 1-9 su+ats if there was a bye week between the cc game and the superbowl...ATLANTA +3
My 20pt system which projects who gets to the bowl this year(of which no one reached 20), gives the rating # for each playoff team, Atlanta's #+5, New England's #+12...the team with the lower # in the superbowl has covered 10 of the last 11 games...ATLANTA +3
When the team with the lower rated # was in the position of being the underdog, that team has went 8-0 ats and 7-1 su since 2001...ATLANTA +3
In fact, the lower rated # has went 10-2 su in last 12 superbowls since 2004...ATLANTA +3
Will either team score 30pts?...bet on it...
All sb teams scoring 30+pts are 22-2-2 ats
All sb favorites scoring 30+pts are 15-2-2 ats
All sb favorites scoring less than 30pts are 2-16-1 ats in last 19
All sb underdogs scoring 30+pts are 7-0-1 ats
If either team reaches 30pts, those games average over 54 a game with a score of 34-20
In Sunday's game, the right offense shows up, but the wrong defense, New England just doesn't have the "familiar horses" it has in the past...this years shocker...
ATLANTA 34 NEW ENGLAND 28
GAME.
First of all we know from last year how the team fares if their qb ends up being the league mvp, 0-7-2 ats in the bowl since 97 and 4-12-3 ats overall, so I'm waiting to see if either Ryan or Brady get it tonight.
The line...
Atlanta vs New England (3) 58.5...
I mentioned in week 17 (based on the 20pt # system) and (the fast start system) that the nyg would beat ne in the bowl, but the Giants fell out...so now what falls for who?
The fast start...
The 6 requirements that were shared by the last 11 Super Bowl winners after the 1st 4 games...
1) a su record of 2-2 or better
2) won at least 1 game su by dd
3) scored 20+pts a game at least twice
4) were favored at least 3 times
5) scored at least 80pts combined
6) surrendered less than 100pts combined
Of the last 11 sb winners, 9 met all six requirements, 2 met 5 of the six..
New England met all 6 this year, Atlanta only 4 of the 6...NEW ENGLAND-3
Since 95 all playoff teams who scored 40+pts in a playoff game have went 4-25 ats in the following round (atl scored 44 in cc game)...NEW ENGLAND-3
Defensive consistency...of the 2 sb teams, the team who has held their opponents to 3pts or less the most times during the regular season has a definite edge, if that team has a 2 or more game advantage in # of games they have won 11 of the last 15 su...Atlanta 0 times, New England 3 times...NEW ENGLAND-3
The sb team with the better regular season record is 0-11 ats in last 11 since 2003 (twice the records were identical)...Atlanta 11-5, New England 14-2...ATLANTA +3
Including the team with the better reg sea record going 1-8 su in the last 9 since 05...ATLANTA +3
Since 2002 the underdog in the bowl is 12-3 ats...ATLANTA +3
Super Bowl favorites of 5pts or less are 1-9 su+ats if there was a bye week between the cc game and the superbowl...ATLANTA +3
My 20pt system which projects who gets to the bowl this year(of which no one reached 20), gives the rating # for each playoff team, Atlanta's #+5, New England's #+12...the team with the lower # in the superbowl has covered 10 of the last 11 games...ATLANTA +3
When the team with the lower rated # was in the position of being the underdog, that team has went 8-0 ats and 7-1 su since 2001...ATLANTA +3
In fact, the lower rated # has went 10-2 su in last 12 superbowls since 2004...ATLANTA +3
Will either team score 30pts?...bet on it...
All sb teams scoring 30+pts are 22-2-2 ats
All sb favorites scoring 30+pts are 15-2-2 ats
All sb favorites scoring less than 30pts are 2-16-1 ats in last 19
All sb underdogs scoring 30+pts are 7-0-1 ats
If either team reaches 30pts, those games average over 54 a game with a score of 34-20
In Sunday's game, the right offense shows up, but the wrong defense, New England just doesn't have the "familiar horses" it has in the past...this years shocker...
ATLANTA 34 NEW ENGLAND 28
GAME.
