***** Super Bowl 50---Carolina vs Denver *****

[TheComputerGroup]

I'm glad Carolina got in, just couldn't see an exciting SB with Arizona in there vs Denver or Pats.

Damn Belichick made several bad callsat Denver, with 5 minutes left in the 4th Q, they sshould have kicked a fg, knowing they would get the ball back.

Crazy catch by Gronk late to get the Pats within 5 yards & a TD a few plays later..........Pats +4.5 (+110) was a great live in game, but I didn't post it, so it won't count.

Congrats to the Denver backers, should have known better with that line movement dipping down to +2.5 on game day.

The NFL will not have Brady win anymore SB's......they don'twant hhim surpassing Montana or Bradshaw with 5 rings.......but I do wish Pats would have gotten in, because I would have unloaded on Carolina in the SB.

I thought the Cards would have played a closer game at Carolina, but this Carolina team showed they're on a different level in the NFC......


X-Large: 131-120
Large: 70-53




Carolina -4.5 vs Denver




Just looking at both teams side by side, Carolina should smoke Denver.......but its never that easy. Denver is 4-1 SU & ATS this season as a dog.

The #1 defense vs the #1 offense in the SB has been won by the #1 defensive team 4 of the 5 past matchups.......

Will Manning join his brother Eli with 2 rings each? Will he go out in style? Or will the hot Panthers team with smiling Cam reel off 35 points in a blowout, deja vu for Denver & Manning?

Brady won it last season, is it Manning's turn? Carolina lost in the SB back in 2003 vs the Pats. Does Carolina finally get a win for their franchise?

This is one tough super bowl matchup.........will Carolina win but not cover? We haven't had a SB team win but not cover since 2008 Steelers vs Cards.

This is a perfect matchup for Vegas & books all over the country, because Carolina will certainly get money, but so will Denver because of Manning & his possible last hoorah & the media will definitely hype up both sides like none other.

I'mstill studying this game, & looking for more optional angles.......let's see what we can figure out.

As of now, the only lean I have is the Over 45.

Will keep looking into for a possible side wager......

 

[CATWINS]

good luck brother been a great season see you in September have a great off season.

 

[memphis]

gluck tcg. i hopped on 4 quick seeing 5.5 even 6/125 sounds like a pile of money to move that line. love the records you keep also. great year!

Memphy

 

[TheComputerGroup]

good luck brother been a great season see you in September have a great off season.

Thanks Cat......we gotta wait 6 months for NFL preseason, & it certainly takes its good ole time getting here.

Was thinking of trying my hand at college & NBA baskets......if I get a feel for them, Iwill post.

Good lluck you you as well.......

 

[TheComputerGroup]

gluck tcg. i hopped on 4 quick seeing 5.5 even 6/125 sounds like a pile of money to move that line. love the records you keep also. great year!

Memphy

Thanks Memphis.......good luck to you too man!

 

[XENO]

I remember seattle absolutely killed the broncs and manning could not do anything about it. ill say this manning has this in his mind bigtime an he is telling his dee many many things that happened in that game. would love to be that fly on the wall there, but ill say this, manning is chomping at the bit to undo that beating him an Denver took. my guess he will do everything he can to win this an I mean everything. Carolinas a very good team but if they a weakness its there pass defense and manning will test that. Carolina does not have the pass rush that seatle had that day. so I see a very close game, and also mannings experience and lack of newtons. however anythings possible an there are no sure things.

 

[woodypaige]

Don't overthink this game. Just look at 2 years ago. Love to hear your thinking in the next 2 weeks

 

[TheComputerGroup]

I remember seattle absolutely killed the broncs and manning could not do anything about it. ill say this manning has this in his mind bigtime an he is telling his dee many many things that happened in that game. would love to be that fly on the wall there, but ill say this, manning is chomping at the bit to undo that beating him an Denver took. my guess he will do everything he can to win this an I mean everything. Carolinas a very good team but if they a weakness its there pass defense and manning will test that. Carolina does not have the pass rush that seatle had that day. so I see a very close game, and also mannings experience and lack of newtons. however anythings possible an there are no sure things.

Xeno, what scares me about Carolina is they've been getting no respect all season......I couldn't believe my eyes seeing them.only -2 vs Seattle in the divisional playoffs.

The line of -3 vs Cards was probably too low as well........as for this SB line, I've seen anywhere from -4 to -5........IMO, that's too high.

I have the line at Carolina -3.......17-1 team vs 14-4

Like I said, tough game as of now.......

 

[TheComputerGroup]

Don't overthink this game. Just look at 2 years ago. Love to hear your thinking in the next 2 weeks

I remember that wax job.......Manning losing 8-40 is unheard of......& he hasn't forgotten it. Denver's defense is really good, but I've seen several better defenses before in the SB.....the Ravens in 2000.......Bears 1985........just to name a few, & IMO, Denver'sdefense doesn't stack up with those.

Carolina has a decent defense as well this season......thing about Denver is, they can'twin just by relying on their offense, their defense has to win it for them.......kind of like the Ravens in 2000........my grandmother could have played Qb for the 2000 Ravens in the SB & still won......their defense was vicious!

 

[bones1980]

Denver had no defense 2 years ago . They will be ready this year

 

[Yogaman]

Hey C G, be careful of college baskets. I have ruined more than one bankroll betting on college kids. More times than not, it came down to 18-22 year old kids needing to make freethrows to cover for me. I got tired of it.

 

[lumpy]

I actually thought the line might be higher, like 6 1/2. Mobility-wise, Manning and Carson Palmer are very similar. Newton, on the other hand, may not be as bright as Brady, but he has the added dimension to be able to take off if Ware and Miller crash the edges like they did against NE. Davis' injury is huge, though. Had he remained healthy, Carolina had the horses to stop Denver's running game and it is clear Manning cannot carry the team without a running game. This matchup reminds me a lot of the Ravens-49ers game a few years ago. Immobile Flacco with great defense v. mobile Kaepernick. That one went down to the last play and I felt lucky to win with Baltimore. I am waiting to see if there is any chance Davis plays. If he does, Carolina starts looking pretty good, in my opinion.

 

[TheRealSouthner]

This is such a tough super bowl matchup to bet, may pass on the mainlines and go for a prop bet or something. Out of all the different prop lines that Vegas throws out, there has to be at least one that can be exploited. Keep in mind that Vegas knows a lot of inexperienced bettors will wager on the game, and that may or may not effect the opening lines and line movement.

 

[TheComputerGroup]

Hey C G, be careful of college baskets. I have ruined more than one bankroll betting on college kids. More times than not, it came down to 18-22 year old kids needing to make freethrows to cover for me. I got tired of it.

You're right, I use to play bigger number in both NBA & college, but now I won't play more than $100 a game.....screw them.

I think the NBA has great situational angles to bet on, you just gotta follow the sport every day, something that can be daunting.

 

[TheComputerGroup]

This is such a tough super bowl matchup to bet, may pass on the mainlines and go for a prop bet or something. Out of all the different prop lines that Vegas throws out, there has to be at least one that can be exploited. Keep in mind that Vegas knows a lot of inexperienced bettors will wager on the game, and that may or may not effect the opening lines and line movement.

A live in game may be a good play......like for instance, Carolina takes an early lead 14-0, Denver would be a great play plus points, like +12.5.....& the opposite goes for Carolina.

 

[Daigo23]

Congrats to the Denver backers, should have known better with that line movement dipping down to +2.5 on game day.

The NFL will not have Brady win anymore SB's......they don'twant hhim surpassing Montana or Bradshaw with 5 rings.......but I do wish Pats would have gotten in, because I would have unloaded on Carolina in the SB.

Not being a dick but if you want to help your capping skills, you need to leave out BS theories the NFL wants. Last week you did the same thing and people tried to help you look at it from another angle but you refused. Cap the games based on stats and DEFENSE! Carolina SOS is 27 vs 13 hence the blowout games Carolina played. When I mentioned that there WILL be reverse movement on that game, you posted stats showing following reverse movement will cost you. Good luck but might want to rethink your bet on Carolina IMO

 

[TheComputerGroup]

I actually thought the line might be higher, like 6 1/2. Mobility-wise, Manning and Carson Palmer are very similar. Newton, on the other hand, may not be as bright as Brady, but he has the added dimension to be able to take off if Ware and Miller crash the edges like they did against NE. Davis' injury is huge, though. Had he remained healthy, Carolina had the horses to stop Denver's running game and it is clear Manning cannot carry the team without a running game. This matchup reminds me a lot of the Ravens-49ers game a few years ago. Immobile Flacco with great defense v. mobile Kaepernick. That one went down to the last play and I felt lucky to win with Baltimore. I am waiting to see if there is any chance Davis plays. If he does, Carolina starts looking pretty good, in my opinion.

I've seen a few people compare this game to the Ravens/49ers SB......I don't see any similarities. Carolina is 17-1, & Kap isn't in the same league as Cam IMO.......Flacco might not have the brains Manning had, but his arm was usually on target & could throw the ball better than what Manning is capable of.......

If Denver wins this game or keeps it close, its because of their defense.

 

[TheComputerGroup]

Not being a dick but if you want to help your capping skills, you need to leave out BS theories the NFL wants. Last week you did the same thing and people tried to help you look at it from another angle but you refused. Cap the games based on stats and DEFENSE! Carolina SOS is 27 vs 13 hence the blowout games Carolina played. When I mentioned that there WILL be reverse movement on that game, you posted stats showing following reverse movement will cost you. Good luck but might want to rethink your bet on Carolina IMO

I'm not being a dick either, why don't you try reading what I wrote......where does it say I bet Carolina??

 

[TheComputerGroup]

Does anyone have the stats on teams beating the super bowl champs in the championship game & then playing the SB?

I know there must not be much of a sample size just off a championship game.......I know in regular playoffs, they do terrible the following playoff game, but I font think there's much of a sample size after the champ game.

 

[her288]

In 1990, NYG won at SF in the championship game and then beating Buffalo in SB 25.