I'll buy a half point and take Denver +6. Lean to the UNDER 44.5.
I've seen this story before. High scoring offense against a top rated defense. Reminds me a bit of the Super Bowl with NY Giants/Buffalo, the Norwood missed FG game. Buffalo came in riding high, blowing out the Raiders 51-3 in the AFC Championship game. The K-Gun offense with Kelly and crew was a high scoring outfit that put up plenty of points all year. The Giants had a dominant defense, a solid running game, and a QB that didn't make many mistakes. As a 7 point dog New York won the game outright. NE/Denver same thing last week, high scoring team vs a top ranked defense. The better defense catching points won outright as a dog. Denver/Seattle a few years ago same thing. Top offense vs Top defense and the defense won.
Now Carolina is a bit different, as along with a potent offense they have a terrific defense. They also run the ball well. Solid defense with the ability to run the ball is a solid wagering situation. I just don't like laying 6 points with this type of team when they are up against a defense the quality of Denver. In my opinion, people are putting too much emphasis on the last couple games. While Carolina was very impressive, they had a lot going for them. Seattle was off a tough road win in frigid conditions, flew back home, then flew cross country for a 10am body clock start. The fresher team jumped them early, got a P6, and its 31-0 at the half.
Seattle fought back and moved the ball well the entire second half. What bothered me about that game is that Carolina couldn't sustain anything in the 2H. Yes, they were trying to shorten the game, but they couldn't grind out any first downs. Maybe 5-6 the entire 2H. Against Arizona they started fast once again, jumping to a quick 17-0 lead. Arizona moved the ball, cut it to 17-7, forced a punt and were poised to start a drive at midfield. Peterson fumbles the punt, Carolina takes the short field and scores, and that was that. Arizona had a QB with a bad finger that clearly was bothering him, as well as playing without a top DB. Carolina was the better team, but the margin was a bit inflated by Palmer's recklessness with the ball as much as anything. I don't see Denver giving up 86 yd TD passes.
Denver's offense has been less than stellar, but with that defense you don't have to be great. I don't care that Carolina has a TO edge, and I don't care how many INTs Manning has thrown this year. He hasn't thrown a pick since he's returned to the lineup over the last 3 games. Manning throws picks when he forces it or tries to do too much. I see him playing a similar type game here as he's done the past few weeks. Short passes, nothing reckless, reading coverages and taking what is given to him.
Wade Phillips will come up with a plan to limit Carolina. They will bring pressure, using a 3/4 man rush with the occasional blitz. You don't beat Cam by being passive and letting him look around and launch bullets all over the field. You have to pressure him and hit him, much like they did with Brady last game. The Denver defense was outstanding against NE, playing with a cohesiveness that limited big plays and disrupted the timing of the rub routes they are famous for. They allow less than 300 yds/gm. That's impressive.
Both teams are stingy against the run: Carolina 86.3/gm and Denver 81.3. The difference? Carolina gives up 4/ypc while Denver is 3.3/ypc. That's a significant difference. They both allow 18-19 points/gm. Offensively Carolina is 10 points/gm better. They are a deserving favorite.
Here are a few trends/stats/angles that are interesting (yes, I know. Some of you aren't fans of these types of things, and you can probably dig up some stuff for Carolina. Its just a few interesting, historical trends. Nothing more):
- The last 7 teams that played to the Over 53% or more during the season are 0-7 ATS, 1-6 SU. Its not how many points you score, its how few you give up.
- Since 2002, the team with fewer wins during the season is 11-1 ATS and 8-4 SU. Dogs are 8-0 ATS and 5-3 SU.
- Playoff teams that scored 39+ last game are 4-17 ATS and 8-13 SU. If favored 3-8 ATS and 7-4 SU.
- Read this somewhere, can't find it, but I believe the Top Ranked defense has played 11 times in the SB with an 8-3 record.
A few friends that I have much respect for like Carolina. I can't fault anyone for taking Carolina. If this was week 12, it would probably be a pass or a slight Denver lean. But its not, its the Super Bowl. I'm going with the #1 ranked defense in the NFL, catching 6 points, with an aging HOF QB that will protect the ball and use his head to keep the game close and make enough plays to possibly win outright. I think CJ Anderson will have a nice game and is outstanding value for MVP at 33/1. If the defense has a game, Von Miller 24.5/1 or Demarcus Ware 80/1 are value. If Carolina wins, its Cam. Period. Anderson is definitely getting a couple bucks for MVP.
Took the day off, wife making tasty food, bar will be open. Very small gathering at the house. Hope everyone enjoys the game and has a great afternoon.
I've seen this story before. High scoring offense against a top rated defense. Reminds me a bit of the Super Bowl with NY Giants/Buffalo, the Norwood missed FG game. Buffalo came in riding high, blowing out the Raiders 51-3 in the AFC Championship game. The K-Gun offense with Kelly and crew was a high scoring outfit that put up plenty of points all year. The Giants had a dominant defense, a solid running game, and a QB that didn't make many mistakes. As a 7 point dog New York won the game outright. NE/Denver same thing last week, high scoring team vs a top ranked defense. The better defense catching points won outright as a dog. Denver/Seattle a few years ago same thing. Top offense vs Top defense and the defense won.
Now Carolina is a bit different, as along with a potent offense they have a terrific defense. They also run the ball well. Solid defense with the ability to run the ball is a solid wagering situation. I just don't like laying 6 points with this type of team when they are up against a defense the quality of Denver. In my opinion, people are putting too much emphasis on the last couple games. While Carolina was very impressive, they had a lot going for them. Seattle was off a tough road win in frigid conditions, flew back home, then flew cross country for a 10am body clock start. The fresher team jumped them early, got a P6, and its 31-0 at the half.
Seattle fought back and moved the ball well the entire second half. What bothered me about that game is that Carolina couldn't sustain anything in the 2H. Yes, they were trying to shorten the game, but they couldn't grind out any first downs. Maybe 5-6 the entire 2H. Against Arizona they started fast once again, jumping to a quick 17-0 lead. Arizona moved the ball, cut it to 17-7, forced a punt and were poised to start a drive at midfield. Peterson fumbles the punt, Carolina takes the short field and scores, and that was that. Arizona had a QB with a bad finger that clearly was bothering him, as well as playing without a top DB. Carolina was the better team, but the margin was a bit inflated by Palmer's recklessness with the ball as much as anything. I don't see Denver giving up 86 yd TD passes.
Denver's offense has been less than stellar, but with that defense you don't have to be great. I don't care that Carolina has a TO edge, and I don't care how many INTs Manning has thrown this year. He hasn't thrown a pick since he's returned to the lineup over the last 3 games. Manning throws picks when he forces it or tries to do too much. I see him playing a similar type game here as he's done the past few weeks. Short passes, nothing reckless, reading coverages and taking what is given to him.
Wade Phillips will come up with a plan to limit Carolina. They will bring pressure, using a 3/4 man rush with the occasional blitz. You don't beat Cam by being passive and letting him look around and launch bullets all over the field. You have to pressure him and hit him, much like they did with Brady last game. The Denver defense was outstanding against NE, playing with a cohesiveness that limited big plays and disrupted the timing of the rub routes they are famous for. They allow less than 300 yds/gm. That's impressive.
Both teams are stingy against the run: Carolina 86.3/gm and Denver 81.3. The difference? Carolina gives up 4/ypc while Denver is 3.3/ypc. That's a significant difference. They both allow 18-19 points/gm. Offensively Carolina is 10 points/gm better. They are a deserving favorite.
Here are a few trends/stats/angles that are interesting (yes, I know. Some of you aren't fans of these types of things, and you can probably dig up some stuff for Carolina. Its just a few interesting, historical trends. Nothing more):
- The last 7 teams that played to the Over 53% or more during the season are 0-7 ATS, 1-6 SU. Its not how many points you score, its how few you give up.
- Since 2002, the team with fewer wins during the season is 11-1 ATS and 8-4 SU. Dogs are 8-0 ATS and 5-3 SU.
- Playoff teams that scored 39+ last game are 4-17 ATS and 8-13 SU. If favored 3-8 ATS and 7-4 SU.
- Read this somewhere, can't find it, but I believe the Top Ranked defense has played 11 times in the SB with an 8-3 record.
A few friends that I have much respect for like Carolina. I can't fault anyone for taking Carolina. If this was week 12, it would probably be a pass or a slight Denver lean. But its not, its the Super Bowl. I'm going with the #1 ranked defense in the NFL, catching 6 points, with an aging HOF QB that will protect the ball and use his head to keep the game close and make enough plays to possibly win outright. I think CJ Anderson will have a nice game and is outstanding value for MVP at 33/1. If the defense has a game, Von Miller 24.5/1 or Demarcus Ware 80/1 are value. If Carolina wins, its Cam. Period. Anderson is definitely getting a couple bucks for MVP.
Took the day off, wife making tasty food, bar will be open. Very small gathering at the house. Hope everyone enjoys the game and has a great afternoon.
