Indy won the game on 11/23, but Chargers had more passing and rushing yards. They had more penalties too, which may have been the difference. Both teams are better than they were in November, but the Chargers are more so.
If the Chargers play like they did against the Broncos they are among the top three teams in football. The central question for this game is if the Chargers can get to Manning. This was the key to earlier Charger wins over the Colts. Without Merriman it remains to be seen if San Diego can blitz successfully. If Manning gets enough time he will pick any defense apart.
At this point the Chargers are ahead on the intensity scale. They've been playing playoff football for the past two weeks. Meanwhile, the Colts took their regular week 17 holiday. (it didn't make any difference for the playoff picture this time around, but it has in the past, and Oakland and Houston showed yesterday how it should be done). We'll see how fast the Colts can close that intensity gap.
Early lean: Chargers.