yesterday 1-5 -5.76 units
Y-T-D (on this site) 5-13 (-10.88 units)
Anaheim +1.02 over TORONTO
The equation here is a rather simple one and it goes something like this. Every time these two play against one another, and Roy Halliday isn’t starting, the Angels chances of winning are far greater then losing. Maguel Batista has pitched well for the Blue Jays all year but note his 56 walks and issuing free passes to these intruders is a recipe for disaster. Then we have the two bullpens and make no mistake, they’ll both see action today and likely plenty of it. Furthermore, Batista has performed much better outside of Canada as indicated by his home ERA of 4.66. Angels have won 4 of 5 and the first two games of this series and we see nothing that suggests that’s going to change today. Play Anaheim +1.02 (Risking 1.6 units).
Kansas City +1.70 over BALTIMORE
We took back a big price on the Royals yesterday, however, the bet was more about taking back a chunk against this host. The situation is not much different today and there’s no way we’re passing up a proposition like this. The Orioles are just not good enough to not accept this generous offer. They are 9-18 against southpaws and will face one today in Jimmy Gobble. Gobble has struggled, we completely acknowledge that, however, we’ve seen his stuff plenty of times and he’s very capable of throwing a gem. Gobble spots a low-90s fastballs inside or out and throws a deceptive changeup. But it's his outstanding curveball that gives hitters the most trouble. Gobble struggles to get out of big league jams but we see some signs suggesting he’s on the brink of a solid outing. He’s struck out 9 over his last 15 innings and has surrendered just one jack over that span. Rodrigo Lopez is a starter turned reliever, turned starter again and seldom does that work out well. He does not have a single dominating pitch and he’s always ripe to get beat as are the Orioles. Value here is on the visitor and once again we’ll step in. Play Kansas City +1.70 (Risking 1.6 units).
Cincinnati +1.25 over MILWAUKEE
Juan Acevedo got off to a tremendous start and then in the season’s second month he started to labor. He appears to be back on track having pitched at least 6 full innings in 4 straight games and 7 fill in 2 of those 4. In fact, each of his last 4 starts, in which he performed well, Acevedo faced 4 of the hottest squads in baseball. He saw the Cardinals twice, the Mets, and the Pirates and ended up winning one, losing one, and getting two no decisions. In other words, he had the Reds in a position to win them all. This opponent has hit an offensive wall. In their past 10 games, they’ve scored 2 runs or fewer 5 times. They haven’t scored more then 5 times in any of those 10. They managed a 5 spot yesterday, however, in the previous nine contests, 4 runs was their biggest output. They’ve dropped 2 of three to the Reds and it took another brilliant performance from Sheets to get them to the winner’s circle yesterday. Victor Santos will take his turn in the rotation and while he’s pitched admirably all year, he’s by no means unbeatable or un-hittable. His ERA is 3.91 and we find some nice value today on the Reds against this struggling offense. Play Cincinnati +1.25 (Risking 1.6 units).
NY Mets –1½ +1.60 over FLORIDA
Price here will dictate our play as Al Leiter has been simply magnificent all season. He’s surrendered just 53 hits in 84 innings and comes in with a puny 2.05 ERA. Over his last 3 games his ERA is 1.77. Leiter has answered the bell for the 7th inning in 5 of his last 6 starts and has just two losses in 14 starts. The opposition is hitting a meager .184 against him. With a little run support, he’d be 12-1. Mets gave him no support in the first two months of the season when they scored one run or less in 6 of his first eight starts. However, the Mets offense has stepped it up and they should be able to get to Dontrelle Willis. Willis has lasted a combined 14 innings over his last 3 games and his ERA over that stretch is 6.91. He’s surrendered 111 hits in 97 innings and his pitch count has been high early. He’s falling behind hitters and at this level we all know what happens when you fall behind. You might want to lay the nickel here rather then the 1½ runs, however, we’ll choose the latter because if the Mets can put up 4 runs, we should get to the cashiers booth. No pitcher in baseball has been better then Leiter and the Marlins are really having a tough time offensively. Play NY Mets –1½ +1.60 (Risking 1.6 units).
SAN DIEGO/Colorado over 9 +1.00
If this is the sucker play of the day then shame on us. If it’s not, then we should have an easy time of it. These are two brutally awful pitchers that will both be on the shelf by seasons end. Game is a nine, we hope, because of the venue, however, even this park can’t help Stark or Valdez. Rockies are seeing beach balls these days and the Padres offense is certainly capable of putting up numbers any day. Denny Stark as been torched for 38 hits in 18 innings and has also issued 11 walks and 7 jacks over that same stretch. Is that possible? It’s factual and all we’re asking of the Padres is to put together 2 innings with 2 runs in each of them. We’ll ask the same from the Rockies who have already scored 17 runs in the 3 games. They’ll have their easiest assignment today against Ismael Valdez. Valdez seldom makes it out of the fifth inning and in fact, has pitched just 14 innings combined over his last 3 starts with a 7.36 ERA. He seldom records a strikeout because his stuff is extremely hittable and with the way the Rockies are playing, asking them to score 2 runs in 2 separate innings does not seem like a difficult task. All things being equal, we’re calling this one to be over the total by the fifth inning. Play it over. Risking 1.6 units).
Y-T-D (on this site) 5-13 (-10.88 units)
Anaheim +1.02 over TORONTO
The equation here is a rather simple one and it goes something like this. Every time these two play against one another, and Roy Halliday isn’t starting, the Angels chances of winning are far greater then losing. Maguel Batista has pitched well for the Blue Jays all year but note his 56 walks and issuing free passes to these intruders is a recipe for disaster. Then we have the two bullpens and make no mistake, they’ll both see action today and likely plenty of it. Furthermore, Batista has performed much better outside of Canada as indicated by his home ERA of 4.66. Angels have won 4 of 5 and the first two games of this series and we see nothing that suggests that’s going to change today. Play Anaheim +1.02 (Risking 1.6 units).
Kansas City +1.70 over BALTIMORE
We took back a big price on the Royals yesterday, however, the bet was more about taking back a chunk against this host. The situation is not much different today and there’s no way we’re passing up a proposition like this. The Orioles are just not good enough to not accept this generous offer. They are 9-18 against southpaws and will face one today in Jimmy Gobble. Gobble has struggled, we completely acknowledge that, however, we’ve seen his stuff plenty of times and he’s very capable of throwing a gem. Gobble spots a low-90s fastballs inside or out and throws a deceptive changeup. But it's his outstanding curveball that gives hitters the most trouble. Gobble struggles to get out of big league jams but we see some signs suggesting he’s on the brink of a solid outing. He’s struck out 9 over his last 15 innings and has surrendered just one jack over that span. Rodrigo Lopez is a starter turned reliever, turned starter again and seldom does that work out well. He does not have a single dominating pitch and he’s always ripe to get beat as are the Orioles. Value here is on the visitor and once again we’ll step in. Play Kansas City +1.70 (Risking 1.6 units).
Cincinnati +1.25 over MILWAUKEE
Juan Acevedo got off to a tremendous start and then in the season’s second month he started to labor. He appears to be back on track having pitched at least 6 full innings in 4 straight games and 7 fill in 2 of those 4. In fact, each of his last 4 starts, in which he performed well, Acevedo faced 4 of the hottest squads in baseball. He saw the Cardinals twice, the Mets, and the Pirates and ended up winning one, losing one, and getting two no decisions. In other words, he had the Reds in a position to win them all. This opponent has hit an offensive wall. In their past 10 games, they’ve scored 2 runs or fewer 5 times. They haven’t scored more then 5 times in any of those 10. They managed a 5 spot yesterday, however, in the previous nine contests, 4 runs was their biggest output. They’ve dropped 2 of three to the Reds and it took another brilliant performance from Sheets to get them to the winner’s circle yesterday. Victor Santos will take his turn in the rotation and while he’s pitched admirably all year, he’s by no means unbeatable or un-hittable. His ERA is 3.91 and we find some nice value today on the Reds against this struggling offense. Play Cincinnati +1.25 (Risking 1.6 units).
NY Mets –1½ +1.60 over FLORIDA
Price here will dictate our play as Al Leiter has been simply magnificent all season. He’s surrendered just 53 hits in 84 innings and comes in with a puny 2.05 ERA. Over his last 3 games his ERA is 1.77. Leiter has answered the bell for the 7th inning in 5 of his last 6 starts and has just two losses in 14 starts. The opposition is hitting a meager .184 against him. With a little run support, he’d be 12-1. Mets gave him no support in the first two months of the season when they scored one run or less in 6 of his first eight starts. However, the Mets offense has stepped it up and they should be able to get to Dontrelle Willis. Willis has lasted a combined 14 innings over his last 3 games and his ERA over that stretch is 6.91. He’s surrendered 111 hits in 97 innings and his pitch count has been high early. He’s falling behind hitters and at this level we all know what happens when you fall behind. You might want to lay the nickel here rather then the 1½ runs, however, we’ll choose the latter because if the Mets can put up 4 runs, we should get to the cashiers booth. No pitcher in baseball has been better then Leiter and the Marlins are really having a tough time offensively. Play NY Mets –1½ +1.60 (Risking 1.6 units).
SAN DIEGO/Colorado over 9 +1.00
If this is the sucker play of the day then shame on us. If it’s not, then we should have an easy time of it. These are two brutally awful pitchers that will both be on the shelf by seasons end. Game is a nine, we hope, because of the venue, however, even this park can’t help Stark or Valdez. Rockies are seeing beach balls these days and the Padres offense is certainly capable of putting up numbers any day. Denny Stark as been torched for 38 hits in 18 innings and has also issued 11 walks and 7 jacks over that same stretch. Is that possible? It’s factual and all we’re asking of the Padres is to put together 2 innings with 2 runs in each of them. We’ll ask the same from the Rockies who have already scored 17 runs in the 3 games. They’ll have their easiest assignment today against Ismael Valdez. Valdez seldom makes it out of the fifth inning and in fact, has pitched just 14 innings combined over his last 3 starts with a 7.36 ERA. He seldom records a strikeout because his stuff is extremely hittable and with the way the Rockies are playing, asking them to score 2 runs in 2 separate innings does not seem like a difficult task. All things being equal, we’re calling this one to be over the total by the fifth inning. Play it over. Risking 1.6 units).
