SundayMLB- Lines that make no sense to me

[zeketaylor]

theres alot of these today, and ill be taking the other side, on some questionable teams simply because i can not justify the lopsidedness of the line......i dunno if its slanted by the books due to public perception......if no one pays attention to stats, or maybe im just an idiot...any way, here goes


Nats +104.......lannan has more experience than lehr, and Nats have the better lineup, and the hotter team.......


O's-115......why arent the first place angelks favored vs a last place O's team that struggles in sunday day games vs a terrible guthrie?

Padres +150...........Cards pitcher , Kyle lohse sucks, and Padres are close to even money in all those games last week at home vs better opponents than them, and score 12 runs when u leastexpect it, and win as a dog repeatedly. Richard has been above average since coming to t eam.

Mets +102........Mets shoudla won yesterday, and i think they win here and win series 2-1.....Lefty sanchez not good on road.


Dbax +147.........Petit the luke warm righty throwing to a bunch of dodger batters who will be overswining in their current slump..........People will play Dodgers for the "avoid the sweep", and it will happen anyway, whether u want it to or not.


BEST BET

rOCKIES -105.....all cook, and all those lefties and patient hitters facing volstad who wont be able tog et out of jams by undisciplined hitters here.....games even money, and ill take the rockies here with their best stopper, cook

 

[Green17]

Thanks for the insight Zeke. Following with you.

 

[JAKEPEAVY21]

gl today zeke..agree on nats and rockies..against you on the O's..no opinion on the other 2

 

[I_Need_Money]

I agree that some of those look odd, but the Mets will be without their one remaining decent hitter, Wright. No way you can put money on them without him in the lineup.

Sanchez had a good last road start @ Houston.

I think this is a play on the Giants or nothing vs the Wrightless Mets.

 

[Mobdeeper7239]

LOL...i bet youll rebound today...thats my lock

 

[ELMO75]

g/l Today Z!! I am on the Rockies. Lannan is a tough luck pitcher Lehr shut down the Cubs at Wrigley pretty impressive. Nats seem to find a way to lose even when they seem to have the game won I think you may have emptied the piggy bank w/ them last week. Agree w/ the Pads and Mets just have a hard time pulling the trigger w/ those lineups regardless of the advantage in starting pitching. O's/Angels looks like one of those games everyone thinks is going over but doesn't.

 

[crazy]

nice post. I'd only be a little worried playing against LAD but but "all in all" this makes sense

 

[zeketaylor]

I agree that some of those look odd, but the Mets will be without their one remaining decent hitter, Wright. No way you can put money on them without him in the lineup.

Sanchez had a good last road start @ Houston.

I think this is a play on the Giants or nothing vs the Wrightless Mets.

they won 9-0 the day after castillo, their hottest hitter fell down the stairs 2 weeks ago, as a huge underdog (+160 at least), at home vs the Cardinals.


It isnt the kind of park that favors home run hitting teams, theres been the least hit there in all of baseball......I like what is aw in the 8th inn yesterday from them

 

[zeketaylor]

g/l Today Z!! I am on the Rockies. Lannan is a tough luck pitcher Lehr shut down the Cubs at Wrigley pretty impressive. Nats seem to find a way to lose even when they seem to have the game won I think you may have emptied the piggy bank w/ them last week. Agree w/ the Pads and Mets just have a hard time pulling the trigger w/ those lineups regardless of the advantage in starting pitching. O's/Angels looks like one of those games everyone thinks is going over but doesn't.

The Padres all of a sudden have a lineup...the everth cabrera dude gets on base, gwynn been servicable....they have to pitch around gonzo, if kouzmanoff produces anyhting , hes the key........because with the addition of will venable, all of a sudden guys like headley and that oaf kyle blanks are slugging, seeing pitches they can hit with 1 out and guys on base.

Lohse the punching bag, vs a guy who should give up 5 runs or less.....i think the padres win here

 

[zeketaylor]

gl today zeke..agree on nats and rockies..against you on the O's..no opinion on the other 2

every time is ee a righty, i think markakis, roberts huff and scott should smash him, problem is that fucking melvin mora never makes a productive out.....i just dont get that line, but the angels should be favored here, so i figured id blindly fade

 

[HansGruber]

Good points. Angels kind of interesting despite their SP - looks like that one will come down to the pens.

Beware of Cook though. Marlins hitting .388 against him, obp of.462, slg. 582. Team OPS is a gaudy 1.044. Plus over the last week their the hottest hitting team in the NL. (2nd is the Rox though.) Just feels like a toss-up to me. Good over play?

 

[zeketaylor]

loving over 9.5 in kc/tiger game....best lineup s for both.

 

[zeketaylor]

GAMEDAY LINEUPS
NO. WASHINGTON CINCINNATI
1. N. Morgan, CF W. Taveras, CF
2. C. Guzman, SS D. Sutton, 2B
3. R. Belliard, 3B J. Votto, 1B
4. A. Dunn, 1B J. Gomes, RF
5. J. Willingham, LF W. Balentien, LF
6. E. Dukes, RF A. Rosales, 3B
7. A. Gonzalez, 2B P. Janish, SS
8. W. Nieves, C R. Hanigan, C
9. J. Lannan, P J. Lehr, P




this is such a mismatch since the Nats decided to recall dukes, and bench anderson hernandez in favor of belliard who shoulda been playing all along

balentien, roasles, janish, hanigan........are they trying to match the Pirates for most boring team?

 

[YoungProdigy]

no zimmerman..u still confident with them?

 

[zeketaylor]

no zimmerman..u still confident with them?

yup



....for those of u wholike to burn money, this long shot looks like a good time.


Parlay (4 Teams)
Bet $ to Win $
Date Team Line
08/16/09 1Rockies (Colorado) -105
13:35 ET
08/16/09 Padres (SanDiego) +152
14:15 ET
08/16/09 Royals (KansasCity) Over 9.5
13:05 ET Tigers (Detroit) (-115)
08/16/09 Liberty (NewYork) +175
16:05 ET

Your Total Bet:
100.00
Total Potential Win:
2429.52



didnt place it, was just taking look at it.

 

[ZJP6050]

does the rockies total make sense to you?? i think volstad can calm it down at home. hasn't been great, but with cook pitching i see the marlins getting 2-3 max. i predict a 5-3 type game

 

[zeketaylor]

does the rockies total make sense to you?? i think volstad can calm it down at home. hasn't been great, but with cook pitching i see the marlins getting 2-3 max. i predict a 5-3 type game

i think ur right

 

[VenomousSanction]

gl Big Z.. thanks for the thread note yesterday. i agree line is fishy wit Baltimore game n' has trap written all over it but oddsmakers cant be right all the time can they!? Prefer Sulli over Guthrie

 

[ScreaminPain]

GAMEDAY LINEUPS
NO. WASHINGTON CINCINNATI
1. N. Morgan, CF W. Taveras, CF
2. C. Guzman, SS D. Sutton, 2B
3. R. Belliard, 3B J. Votto, 1B
4. A. Dunn, 1B J. Gomes, RF
5. J. Willingham, LF W. Balentien, LF
6. E. Dukes, RF A. Rosales, 3B
7. A. Gonzalez, 2B P. Janish, SS
8. W. Nieves, C R. Hanigan, C
9. J. Lannan, P J. Lehr, P


this is such a mismatch since the Nats decided to recall dukes...

Using a "somewhat" sophisticated "Runs Created" formula, these lineups should produce the following:

Washington...4.82 Runs
Cincy...........4.00 Runs

Washington is performing at 84.6% of MLB average, while Cincy is performing at 85.4% of MLB average. d1g1t

Charting starting pitchers overall records, H/A records, L3 records and incorporating overall and recent team form.....I make this game a near toss-up. Without considering home field advantage, the Nats would be -106. I usuall give home teams 14-18 cents, you decide. This would be a sensible wager for those who exclusively bet "dogs", otherwise, there are better matchups today if you're betting large.

 

[PeterGriffin]

Wow. Lannan just pulled off one of the biggest meltdowns of the year right there. With the Nats BP coming in soon, this one is all but over now.