Sunday Week16# Analysis & Picks & Bets

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

This game has the feel of a playoff preview. Jacksonville’s offense will test Denver’s defense, but the Broncos’ pass rush and home-field edge should prove decisive. Jacksonville Jaguars Win Probability: 40.00% Denver Broncos Win Probability: 63.24% My Bet: Denver covers the spread -2 1/2 buying hook, expect a competitive game with playoff intensity.

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2 Team 7 Point Teaser Bills-3 & Denver +4

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Bet 2 Team 7 Point Teaser Denver +4 & Eagles + 1/2

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Bet 2 Team 7 Point Teaser Bills-3 & Eagles + 1/2

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Bet 3 Team 7 Point Teaser Denver +4 & Eagles + 1/2 & Bills-3

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The Philadelphia Eagles enter Week 16 as strong favorites against the Washington Commanders, with a chance to clinch the NFC East. Washington is without rookie QB Jayden Daniels, while Jalen Hurts and the Eagles are coming off a dominant 31–0 win over the Raiders.
Eagles: Jalen Hurts is healthy and efficient, completing 80% of his passes last week with 3 TDs.
Commanders: Jayden Daniels has been shut down for the season, leaving Marcus Mariota to start. Mariota is mobile but inconsistent, which limits Washington’s offensive ceiling.
Injuries & Availability
Eagles: Saquon Barkley (illness), Landon Dickerson (calf), and Jalen Carter (shoulder) are on the injury report, but Lane Johnson is expected to return.
Commanders: LT Laremy Tunsil is sidelined, weakening pass protection.
Recent Form
Eagles snapped a 3-game skid with a 31–0 shutout of Las Vegas.
Commanders ended an 8-game losing streak by beating the Giants 29–21.
Odds & Predictions
Spread: Eagles favored by -6 1/2
Consensus Picks: Most analysts expect Philadelphia to win comfortably, citing their defense and Washington’s QB issues.
*Division Stakes: A win clinches the NFC East title for Philadelphia, marking back-to-back division crowns for the first time since 2004.

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My Bet

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Eagles Money Line -$310 X 4 with a press

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Eagles -6 buying the hook X 3 with a press

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[vinnyvegas]

Get em HTH. Happiest holidays and Merry Christmas

 

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

Thank You Vinny you have safe one also my friend

 

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

For Jacksonville: Lawrence must stay efficient against pressure. Quick reads, screens, and exploiting Denver’s linebackers in coverage could be key.
For Denver: With the run game likely neutralized, Nix will need to continue thriving in a pass-heavy script. The O-line’s ability to sustain protection is the hinge point.

 

[exploited17]

For what its worth teams off a shutout who allowed less than 100 yards are 17-1-1 ats since 1989

 

[itchy$pickle]

For what its worth teams off a shutout who allowed less than 100 yards are 17-1-1 ats since 1989

Awesome trend @exploited17
Crossover teasers (Denver) are risky as well.

 

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

Get em HTH. Happiest holidays and Merry Christmas

The Jaguars’ defense ranks 15th in sacks with 34, and they have six interceptions. However, they have allowed 435 points, placing them 25th. Several players are on the injury report, including Bhayshul Tuten and Travis Hunter, who are out for the rest of the season. The Denver Broncos have a perfect home record of 7-0. Their strong defense ranks third in opponent score, which makes them a solid pick. Playing at home gives them an advantage, as they have not lost there this season

 

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

B&Rs Expert Analysis Rating by Jerry Nyles NFL Handicapper with DVAXN Group 25 NFL Football Outsiders

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Sean Payton has been starting to really open up the playbook the last few weeks, except against the Raiders, and it’s almost like that’s by design and he was keeping his best stuff for late in the season/ playoffs. The offensive schemes have been great, and Nix appears to have more weapons than we thought he had. And now with Pat Bryant returning to play, there’s many opportunities to be had this week.

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Since we know that it’s not an “if” but a “when” the Jags will give free opportunities to the Broncos, it’s imperative that not only do the Broncos take advantage of those, but that Denver plays their cleanest game of football yet. They don’t want to bog themselves down with excessive mistakes that only serve to keep the game sloppy, rather than rise above their opponent. Jags are the worst most penalized team in the NFL.

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Reports from stats late 2025 confirm the Jacksonville Jaguars were among the NFL's most penalized teams, often leading the league in total penalties or penalty yards, with issues stemming from offensive pre-snap penalties (false starts, holding) and defensive pass interference, a persistent problem even as they improved in other areas. While specific rankings fluctuated slightly by week, they were consistently high, impacting their ability to win games despite flashes of strong play. Denver has been better penalty-wise as of late. They need to keep that trend going.

 

[Green17]

Harry, thanks as always and GL to us this weekend. Appreciate you!

 

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

Harry, thanks as always and GL to us this weekend. Appreciate you!

Thank You Mr. Green always!!! Let's all win my friend!!!!!!!

 

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

Adding the hook (-1.5 or +1.5) eliminates that outcome, ensuring the book collects juice on every bet. While 1 isn’t a major “key number” like 3 or 7, it still matters. Games do end with 1‑point margins, especially in low‑scoring or defensive battles. Books prefer not to leave themselves vulnerable to pushes in those scenarios like Rams vs Seahawks.

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The NFL has "key numbers" (most common margins of victory) like 3, 7, and 10. Buying a half point that crosses one of these key numbers (e.g., moving from +2.5 to +3 or from -3.5 to -3) is generally considered more valuable than moving across a "dead" number (e.g., -5 to -5.5) because games land on key numbers more frequently

 

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

Bills Offense: Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs remain the focal point. Buffalo’s offense showed resilience against New England, scoring 35 points in Week 15.

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Bills Defense: Likely boosted by the return of CB Christian Benford and LB Terrel Bernard. They face a depleted Browns offensive line and rookie QB Shedeur Sanders, who has struggled (1–3 record as starter).

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Browns Offense: Injuries have gutted their line, leaving Sanders exposed. WR Brandin Cooks and TE David Njoku provide targets, but consistency is lacking.

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Browns Defense: Myles Garrett is chasing the NFL sack record, which could be their main storyline. However, the unit has been overworked due to offensive inefficiency.

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Prediction
Their playoff push and talent advantage outweigh Cleveland’s spoiler potential.

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I have them in my teasers Bills-3, I am guessing that this matchup with Denver +4 and the Eagles + 1/2 have good chance cover with the teasers

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*All bets made Wednesday afternoon with William Hill Sports Book [ my option best numbers to bet and with money lines & teasers then other sportsbooks].

 

[uscmd]

HtH, solid insight. BOL

 

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

So how good are these guys? >>> Bobby Lancer NFL Analyst Handicapper with DVAXN Group 25 NFL Football Outsiders low 80% this season so far/////Harold Johnson NFL Analyst with DVAXN Group 25 NFL Football Outsiders high 70%/////B&Rs Expert Consensus Analysts Rating by Jerry Nyles with DVAXN Group 25 NFL Football Outsiders high 70% are my must read with their post & threads on their web site on X. along with some others on DVAXN Group 25 NFL Football Outsiders. Merry and safe Christmas weekend & Rosh Hashanah to all!!!!!!!!!

 

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

Bobby Lancer NFL Analyst Handicapper with DVAXN Group 25 NFL Football Outsiders

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Honestly, this line seems a bit low for DeVonta Smith. He’s proven to be a legit deep threat for the Eagles and one of the best in the NFL. Smith has a catch of at least 23 yards in four straight games and seven of his last eight contests. That includes a long of 44 yards last week and 41 a few weeks ago in Dallas. Disregarding whether Mariota or Daniels has started, the Commanders are 0-4 in their last four home games. They're 1-3 ATS in that span, only covering in their overtime loss to the Denver Broncos.

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While the Commanders haven’t allowed a ton of long receptions, they also haven’t played Smith and the Eagles yet. Even if they don’t air it out to him, Smith is capable of racking up yards after the catch to surpass this 22.5 mark.

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Philadelphia's defense, led by Jordan Davis, Zack Baun, and Quinyon Mitchell, should be an important part of the game, too. The Eagles are allowing the sixth-fewest points per game (19.4), and they rank just outside the top 10 in team sacks with 35, which ranks 11th in the NFL. For comparison's sake, the Commanders are conceding 26.8 PPG, and they have 31 team sacks, ranking 26th and tied for 16th, respectively. Philadelphia will Win lay the 3-1 on money line bet -$300/ -$320/-$ 330 depending on which book you bet.

 

[lakrfan2000]

My Bet

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Eagles Money Line -$310 X 4 with a press

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Eagles -6 buying the hook X 3 with a press

Good start to the weekend, my friend!
Let's Just Win!

 

[bank--it]

So how good are these guys? >>> Bobby Lancer NFL Analyst Handicapper with DVAXN Group 25 NFL Football Outsiders low 80% this season so far/////Harold Johnson NFL Analyst with DVAXN Group 25 NFL Football Outsiders high 70%/////B&Rs Expert Consensus Analysts Rating by Jerry Nyles with DVAXN Group 25 NFL Football Outsiders high 70% are my must read with their post & threads on their web site on X. along with some others on DVAXN Group 25 NFL Football Outsiders. Merry and safe Christmas weekend & Rosh Hashanah to all!!!!!!!!!

Rosh Hashanah is in September lol

 

[StevieRay]

Rosh Hashanah is in September lol

Maybe meant Happy Hanukkah. Lol

 

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

Rosh Hashanah is in September lol.... Happy Hanukkah !!!

 

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

My Bet

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Eagles Money Line -$310 X 4 with a press

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Eagles -6 buying the hook X 3 with a press

Good start to the weekend, my friend!
Let's Just Win!

MY BETS: $100 Units Straight Bets & Money Lines / on Teasers $110 Units

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1- Eagles Money Line -$310 X 4 with a press

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2- Eagles -6 buying the hook X 3 with a press

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3- Denver covers the spread -2 1/2 buying hook,

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4 - 2 Team 7 Point Teaser Bills-3 & Denver +4

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5- Bet 2 Team 7 Point Teaser Denver +4 & Eagles + 1/2

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6- Bet 2 Team 7 Point Teaser Bills-3 & Eagles + 1/2

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7- Bet 3 Team 7 Point Teaser Denver +4 & Eagles + 1/2 & Bills-3