Sunday: Tail at Your Own Risk

[ofred]

Another rough day at 1-3. Now 5-11, -8.36 units

All One units:

Cleveland RL (+120). Ricky Nolasco will find out how much tougher it is to pitch in the AL. No more bottom of the lineup relief like in the NL. Nolasco finally had a decent year last year, on a contract campaign. Now that he is paid, I'm betting he reverts back to his old inconsistent self. Masterson, meanwhile has been one of the best pitchers in the league since the beginning of spring training, and including his 1st start. He is streaky, and right now he is streaking good.

Arizona ML (+111). Brett Anderson is the one in trouble in Coors Field, while Wade Miley has had a number of starts there already. Anderson hasn't had a good start since last April, and his many injuries have made him about 1/2 the pitcher he was. The A's got very little in return for him and they know that's all he is worth. Miley knows how to keep the ball down in Coors, and who to pitch to in what way.

NY Mets/ Cinn. over 7.5 (+105) Both Niese and Simon haven't pitched in weeks. Niese is on a short leash considering the spring injuries he had. The Mets bullpen is already stretched thin and mediocre. Simon got roughed up in the spring and is a possible one time starter based on how he does here. With Chapman out, the Reds bullpen are a little weak at the end of the BP, as evidenced by Ike Davis' walk off Saturday.

 

[BoutMyMoney]

like that over ofred. season hasn't even started yet bro. you'll start feeling it soon. you're a stud. keep doing your thing, been reading your write ups for years.

 

[LivintheFamilyLife!]

Like the prices & plays tomorrow, agree with BMM also your write-ups are always solid & appreciated. GL!

 

[volcom-pike]

Love the CIN/NYM over. The 7.5 number baffles me as a handicapper in this case. Two pitchers that ended Spring terribly, and are tailing their respective rotations, getting such credit is beyond me. Niese may have had starter stuff in the past, but there is without a doubt, a reason they didn't tap him in previous games given that they opened at home 4 games ago. Alfredo Simon is a bullpen pitcher in a starting role, also. His numbers thus far are great against this Mets lineup, but the sample size is so small. And being that he is a bullpen pitcher, I'm sure his stuff will lose a little edge.

 

[Soriano12]

Niese may have had starter stuff in the past, but there is without a doubt, a reason they didn't tap him in previous games given that they opened at home 4 games ago.

Pretty simple reason: His elbow inflamation...nothing to do with his general ability, he was actually supposed to be their opening day starter until he had problems with his elbow in early spring training. Once they placed him on the DL in late February, he was scheduled to pitch in the 2nd series because he wasn't allowed to come back earlier + they didn't want to rush him back anyway.
Reasoning by o fred is good though, Niese had mediocre results in his rehab games, might lack rhythm & feel for his stuff after missing time in spring training and probably won't go more than 90pitches, which should be 6IP at best, probably less, and we all have seen that extended work by the Mets bullpen is always a good thing for any over bet...

 

[XSPower]

Good luck today!!!!

 

[Lollo]

Hang in there Fred. You're one of the best baseball cappers in here imo. Always check your picks before I make my own wagers. You'll turn things around shortly. Love your plays today!