Randall the Handle
BEST BETS
Bucs (4-6) at Falcons (6-4)
LINE: ATLANTA by 10
The Bucs are rather awful, but this is a perfect spot for the Falcons to fall down. Atlanta returns home from a huge win in Seattle on Monday night, following a beat down of the Cowboys in previous week. While the Seahawks aren’t quite the physical team they once were, it is still an exhausting trip against a menacing group. It’s worth noting that teams favoured after playing the Seahawks are 15-32 against the spread (ATS). Birds were gassed at the end of that one (almost went to overtime) and now will try to gear up for this unassuming opponent on six days rest before hosting top-ranked Minnesota next week, followed by a crucial matchup with the visiting Saints on a Thursday night. Buccaneers appear to be loosey-goosey now that they’ve accepted their disappointing fate for 2017, having won two straight with Ryan Fitzpatrick guiding the ship from a familiar spot for him. Tampa knows its division mate well, having covered three of past four and none were in this generous price range.
TAKING: BUCCANEERS +10
Bills (5-5) at Chiefs (6-4)
LINE: KANSAS CITY by 10
Who came up with this pointspread? Andy Reid’s mom? This line makes no sense at all. Let’s look at last week, when the Chargers were a 4½-point choice over Buffalo before a quarterback switch was announced for the Bills. That experiment with rookie QB Nathan Peterman turned out to be a 30-minute disaster as he threw five first-half interceptions, allowing the Bolts to wallop Buffalo 54-24. Set that aside for a moment. One could easily argue that the Chargers are playing as well, if not better, than Kansas City at this moment. If that is the case and L.A. was a 4½-point home favourite over the Bills when Tyrod Taylor was expected to start, how can the slumping Chiefs (losers of four of past five including last week to dismal Giants) be a double-digit favourite a week later with Taylor back as the starter? Meanwhile, have you seen Alex Smith lately? Back to checking down and the Chiefs settling for field goals. Grab these points.
TAKING: BILLS +10
Broncos (3-7) at Raiders (4-6)
LINE: OAKLAND by 5
Many thought these two clubs would be fighting it out for the AFC West, but it turns out the other two divisional mates have taken on that role. Both Oakland and Denver are in disarray and both fired co-ordinators this week in an attempt to repair each team’s respective weakness (Oakland’s defence, Denver’s offence). The Broncos took it a step further by naming Paxton Lynch as the starting quarterback for this one. While Lynch will be a work in progress, he simply cannot be any worse than the two stiffs that preceded him. Much prefer backing the youngster and a Denver defence that still ranks highly in various defensive categories. It’s not like Oakland’s offence is scaring anyone these days either. The Raiders have made it to 20 points only twice in past nine games. Broncos won earlier meeting 16-10 and have covered in five of past six here. Dog is the prudent play.
TAKING: BRONCOS +5
THE REST
Browns (0-10) at Bengals (4-6)
LINE: CINCINNATI by 8
Maybe it’s irresponsible of us to fade the Browns no matter what the price is, but it has proven worthwhile the past two weeks when Cleveland failed to cover each time in games they should have easily earned a checkmark. Are we anxious to spot more than a touchdown with the boring Bengals? Not really, but it is the less Advil-inducing way to go. Fading the 0-10 (2-8 ATS) Brownies is further supported when coach Hue Jackson declared that despite four turnovers last week against Jacksonville, DeShone Kizer would be his starter the rest of the season. That’s very noble of Jackson, but let him learn on someone else’s money. Bengals can play some defence and should be able to toy with this bumbling rookie.
TAKING: BENGALS –8
Bears (3-7) at Eagles (9-1)
LINE: PHILADELPHIA by 13½
No team is bulletproof. With Philadelphia on an eight-game win streak with seven covers, it’s tough to fade what is arguably the most complete team in the NFL. But we’re going to attempt it. This would have ranked higher in our selections if we knew the status of ILB Danny Trevathan (calf) as the star player is the essential leader to Chicago’s sturdy defence. Without Trevathan, Carson Wentz could have another big day. But if he plays, we expect the Bears to hang around as they have with other big teams (defeated Steelers and Panthers, hung tough with Saints and Vikings). Eagles could also be out of focus after basically locking up NFC East after dismantling of Dallas last week and they have road games in Seattle and the Rams on deck.
TAKING: BEARS +13½
Dolphins (4-6) at Patriots (8-2)
LINE: NEW ENGLAND by 16½
Remember back to the start of the season when the Patriots started 2-2, had given up 128 points in four games and many thought the party was over? How very wrong. The masters of adjustments tweaked their blueprints and New England has not surrendered more than 17 points in any game since. The offence remains a machine as timeless Tom Brady leads the league by throwing for an average of 304 yards per game while his offence ranks second in yardage and fourth in scoring. Obviously, this is a big spread, the largest of the season, in fact, but Miami can’t get out of its own way, nor can it score as its 15.7 points per game has Fins 31st overall, just slightly ahead of the Browns. Fish have covered just two of past eight played here.
TAKING: PATRIOTS -16½
Panthers (7-3) at Jets (4-6)
LINE: CAROLINA by 4½
Panthers punched out the Dolphins in prime time a couple weeks ago before taking their week off. Cam Newton was dancing and prancing and doing what Cam does when his team is winning. However, there is an immaturity that exists and it could rear its childish head for this one. Basking in the one-sided win and heading to New Orleans next week for what could be a showdown for first place, a letdown could be in order. Meanwhile, the Jets are gritty. They’ve defeated Jacksonville on this field and gave both the Falcons and Patriots more than they bargained for when each stopped by. This New York bunch has failed to cover just once in its past eight games. They can hang around in this one.
TAKING: JETS +4½
Titans (6-4) at Colts (3-7)
LINE: TENNESSEE by 3
Titans were pounded by Steelers 10 days ago, but we’ll give them a mulligan for being the Thursday night road team facing a superior squad. Prior to that debacle, Tennessee had won three straight. Banged-up QB Marcus Mariota should benefit from the extra rest. His club defeated these Colts in Nashville a few weeks ago by a 36-22 count when spotting seven points. We don’t see why Indianapolis should be able to significantly lower the gap here. On home turf, the Colts have lost to the Cardinals, slipped by the lowly Browns and 49ers by three points each and were then clobbered 27-0 by the Jaguars. Titans have never won at Lucas Oil (0-9), but facing an Indy team allowing league-high 28 points per game lends them their best chance to change that.
TAKING: TITANS -3
Seahawks (6-4) at 49ers (1-9)
LINE: SEATTLE by 6½
No coasting for the Seahawks as they are currently on outside looking in at a playoff spot. Not sure if this battered club is deep enough to rectify things over the next month but still prefer spotting these road points against a team led by neophyte QB C.J. Beathard. The youngster is acting as a placeholder until recently acquired Jimmy Garoppolo is ready. Beathard figures to be on his back for much of the afternoon, as even a chucklehead like Pete Carroll can figure out that San Francisco’s offensive line is a liability and he should throw the kitchen sink at a team that is tied for fourth most sacks allowed (32) in the league. Even if Beathard can escape the pass rush, he simply does not have the personnel around him to do any damage. Look for a Seahawks bounce back, at least on this day.
TAKING: SEAHAWKS –6½
Saints (8-2) at Rams (7-3)
LINE: L.A. RAMS by 2½
Prior to New Orleans’ incredible comeback win over the Redskins last week, the Saints defence hadn’t seen a top-10 quarterback since facing Matthew Stafford more than a month before. Washington’s Kirk Cousins exposed New Orleans when throwing for 322 yards, three touchdowns, no interceptions and completing nearly 69% of his passes. The Rams offence is more than capable of similar with Jared Goff piloting a team that is second overall in scoring and fourth overall in yardage. The difference is that this L.A. team has a stronger defence than the ’Skins and one that will not allow for such shenanigans should the Rams hold a sizeable lead. Key CB Kayvon Webster could be out for Rams and that is all that prevents us from elevating this to a top pick.
TAKING: RAMS –2½
Jaguars (7-3) at Cardinals (4-6)
LINE: JACKSONVILLE by 5
Only a few more speed bumps lay ahead in the potholed road that is the Cardinals’ 2017 season. Losing RB David Johnson and then QB Carson Palmer doomed Arizona’s offence, which now sits 31st overall in rushing and 26th in points scored. As a result, the defence has worn down as well. If Houston’s Tom Savage can beat you like the Texans did last week in a 31-21 final, then anyone can. The Jaguars certainly have the proper credentials to add to Arizona’s woes. Jacksonville employs a fierce pass rush that should get to third-string QB Blaine Gabbert all too often in this one. Should Gabbert find ways to avoid such pressure, he’s unlikely to have success against the league’s stingiest defence that ranks first in total yards, passing yards and points allowed. Jags have been road warriors with seven covers in past eight away.
TAKING: JAGUARS –5
Packers (5-5) at Steelers (8-2)
LINE: PITTSBURGH by 14
Sometimes you just have to go with the obvious and despite Pittsburgh’s penchant for playing at their opponent’s level, the Steelers are the logical and more reliable choice here. Green Bay is one of several teams that are unable to function without their starting quarterback, especially when that guy is among the best at the position. The drop off from Aaron Rodgers to Brett Hundley is colossal. Hundley’s 63.3 quarterback rating is second lowest among qualified throwers, with only Cleveland’s DeShone Kizer below. The youngster has been sacked 17 times already in his brief career and that will suit Pittsburgh’s sack happy defence just fine. Steelers are hot commodity, covering four of past five games. Mike Tomlin likes to show off in prime time and this being the Sunday nighter, he figures to flaunt his team’s stuff.
TAKING: STEELERS –14
Texans (4-6) at Ravens (5-5)
LINE: BALTIMORE by 7
Probably not your best option for Monday night television viewing. But if you must, can only recommend the Ravens here as Houston cannot pass the ball with Tom Savage as its quarterback and with DT Brandon Williams back in Baltimore’s lineup, running the ball is unlikely to work either. Texans also deteriorating on defence where secondary has allowed 22 passing touchdowns, tying them for most in league. For whatever reason, the Texans suffer from stage fright in this spotlight as they are just 3-7 ATS in past 10 Monday Night Football appearances. Those failures were with much better offensive rosters than this one. Giving away the converted touchdown with Baltimore’s limited offence does have an inherent risk but we’ve seen the Ravens pitch three shutouts thus far and this opponent ranks with same kind of clubs.
TAKING: RAVENS –7
BEST BETS
Bucs (4-6) at Falcons (6-4)
LINE: ATLANTA by 10
The Bucs are rather awful, but this is a perfect spot for the Falcons to fall down. Atlanta returns home from a huge win in Seattle on Monday night, following a beat down of the Cowboys in previous week. While the Seahawks aren’t quite the physical team they once were, it is still an exhausting trip against a menacing group. It’s worth noting that teams favoured after playing the Seahawks are 15-32 against the spread (ATS). Birds were gassed at the end of that one (almost went to overtime) and now will try to gear up for this unassuming opponent on six days rest before hosting top-ranked Minnesota next week, followed by a crucial matchup with the visiting Saints on a Thursday night. Buccaneers appear to be loosey-goosey now that they’ve accepted their disappointing fate for 2017, having won two straight with Ryan Fitzpatrick guiding the ship from a familiar spot for him. Tampa knows its division mate well, having covered three of past four and none were in this generous price range.
TAKING: BUCCANEERS +10
Bills (5-5) at Chiefs (6-4)
LINE: KANSAS CITY by 10
Who came up with this pointspread? Andy Reid’s mom? This line makes no sense at all. Let’s look at last week, when the Chargers were a 4½-point choice over Buffalo before a quarterback switch was announced for the Bills. That experiment with rookie QB Nathan Peterman turned out to be a 30-minute disaster as he threw five first-half interceptions, allowing the Bolts to wallop Buffalo 54-24. Set that aside for a moment. One could easily argue that the Chargers are playing as well, if not better, than Kansas City at this moment. If that is the case and L.A. was a 4½-point home favourite over the Bills when Tyrod Taylor was expected to start, how can the slumping Chiefs (losers of four of past five including last week to dismal Giants) be a double-digit favourite a week later with Taylor back as the starter? Meanwhile, have you seen Alex Smith lately? Back to checking down and the Chiefs settling for field goals. Grab these points.
TAKING: BILLS +10
Broncos (3-7) at Raiders (4-6)
LINE: OAKLAND by 5
Many thought these two clubs would be fighting it out for the AFC West, but it turns out the other two divisional mates have taken on that role. Both Oakland and Denver are in disarray and both fired co-ordinators this week in an attempt to repair each team’s respective weakness (Oakland’s defence, Denver’s offence). The Broncos took it a step further by naming Paxton Lynch as the starting quarterback for this one. While Lynch will be a work in progress, he simply cannot be any worse than the two stiffs that preceded him. Much prefer backing the youngster and a Denver defence that still ranks highly in various defensive categories. It’s not like Oakland’s offence is scaring anyone these days either. The Raiders have made it to 20 points only twice in past nine games. Broncos won earlier meeting 16-10 and have covered in five of past six here. Dog is the prudent play.
TAKING: BRONCOS +5
THE REST
Browns (0-10) at Bengals (4-6)
LINE: CINCINNATI by 8
Maybe it’s irresponsible of us to fade the Browns no matter what the price is, but it has proven worthwhile the past two weeks when Cleveland failed to cover each time in games they should have easily earned a checkmark. Are we anxious to spot more than a touchdown with the boring Bengals? Not really, but it is the less Advil-inducing way to go. Fading the 0-10 (2-8 ATS) Brownies is further supported when coach Hue Jackson declared that despite four turnovers last week against Jacksonville, DeShone Kizer would be his starter the rest of the season. That’s very noble of Jackson, but let him learn on someone else’s money. Bengals can play some defence and should be able to toy with this bumbling rookie.
TAKING: BENGALS –8
Bears (3-7) at Eagles (9-1)
LINE: PHILADELPHIA by 13½
No team is bulletproof. With Philadelphia on an eight-game win streak with seven covers, it’s tough to fade what is arguably the most complete team in the NFL. But we’re going to attempt it. This would have ranked higher in our selections if we knew the status of ILB Danny Trevathan (calf) as the star player is the essential leader to Chicago’s sturdy defence. Without Trevathan, Carson Wentz could have another big day. But if he plays, we expect the Bears to hang around as they have with other big teams (defeated Steelers and Panthers, hung tough with Saints and Vikings). Eagles could also be out of focus after basically locking up NFC East after dismantling of Dallas last week and they have road games in Seattle and the Rams on deck.
TAKING: BEARS +13½
Dolphins (4-6) at Patriots (8-2)
LINE: NEW ENGLAND by 16½
Remember back to the start of the season when the Patriots started 2-2, had given up 128 points in four games and many thought the party was over? How very wrong. The masters of adjustments tweaked their blueprints and New England has not surrendered more than 17 points in any game since. The offence remains a machine as timeless Tom Brady leads the league by throwing for an average of 304 yards per game while his offence ranks second in yardage and fourth in scoring. Obviously, this is a big spread, the largest of the season, in fact, but Miami can’t get out of its own way, nor can it score as its 15.7 points per game has Fins 31st overall, just slightly ahead of the Browns. Fish have covered just two of past eight played here.
TAKING: PATRIOTS -16½
Panthers (7-3) at Jets (4-6)
LINE: CAROLINA by 4½
Panthers punched out the Dolphins in prime time a couple weeks ago before taking their week off. Cam Newton was dancing and prancing and doing what Cam does when his team is winning. However, there is an immaturity that exists and it could rear its childish head for this one. Basking in the one-sided win and heading to New Orleans next week for what could be a showdown for first place, a letdown could be in order. Meanwhile, the Jets are gritty. They’ve defeated Jacksonville on this field and gave both the Falcons and Patriots more than they bargained for when each stopped by. This New York bunch has failed to cover just once in its past eight games. They can hang around in this one.
TAKING: JETS +4½
Titans (6-4) at Colts (3-7)
LINE: TENNESSEE by 3
Titans were pounded by Steelers 10 days ago, but we’ll give them a mulligan for being the Thursday night road team facing a superior squad. Prior to that debacle, Tennessee had won three straight. Banged-up QB Marcus Mariota should benefit from the extra rest. His club defeated these Colts in Nashville a few weeks ago by a 36-22 count when spotting seven points. We don’t see why Indianapolis should be able to significantly lower the gap here. On home turf, the Colts have lost to the Cardinals, slipped by the lowly Browns and 49ers by three points each and were then clobbered 27-0 by the Jaguars. Titans have never won at Lucas Oil (0-9), but facing an Indy team allowing league-high 28 points per game lends them their best chance to change that.
TAKING: TITANS -3
Seahawks (6-4) at 49ers (1-9)
LINE: SEATTLE by 6½
No coasting for the Seahawks as they are currently on outside looking in at a playoff spot. Not sure if this battered club is deep enough to rectify things over the next month but still prefer spotting these road points against a team led by neophyte QB C.J. Beathard. The youngster is acting as a placeholder until recently acquired Jimmy Garoppolo is ready. Beathard figures to be on his back for much of the afternoon, as even a chucklehead like Pete Carroll can figure out that San Francisco’s offensive line is a liability and he should throw the kitchen sink at a team that is tied for fourth most sacks allowed (32) in the league. Even if Beathard can escape the pass rush, he simply does not have the personnel around him to do any damage. Look for a Seahawks bounce back, at least on this day.
TAKING: SEAHAWKS –6½
Saints (8-2) at Rams (7-3)
LINE: L.A. RAMS by 2½
Prior to New Orleans’ incredible comeback win over the Redskins last week, the Saints defence hadn’t seen a top-10 quarterback since facing Matthew Stafford more than a month before. Washington’s Kirk Cousins exposed New Orleans when throwing for 322 yards, three touchdowns, no interceptions and completing nearly 69% of his passes. The Rams offence is more than capable of similar with Jared Goff piloting a team that is second overall in scoring and fourth overall in yardage. The difference is that this L.A. team has a stronger defence than the ’Skins and one that will not allow for such shenanigans should the Rams hold a sizeable lead. Key CB Kayvon Webster could be out for Rams and that is all that prevents us from elevating this to a top pick.
TAKING: RAMS –2½
Jaguars (7-3) at Cardinals (4-6)
LINE: JACKSONVILLE by 5
Only a few more speed bumps lay ahead in the potholed road that is the Cardinals’ 2017 season. Losing RB David Johnson and then QB Carson Palmer doomed Arizona’s offence, which now sits 31st overall in rushing and 26th in points scored. As a result, the defence has worn down as well. If Houston’s Tom Savage can beat you like the Texans did last week in a 31-21 final, then anyone can. The Jaguars certainly have the proper credentials to add to Arizona’s woes. Jacksonville employs a fierce pass rush that should get to third-string QB Blaine Gabbert all too often in this one. Should Gabbert find ways to avoid such pressure, he’s unlikely to have success against the league’s stingiest defence that ranks first in total yards, passing yards and points allowed. Jags have been road warriors with seven covers in past eight away.
TAKING: JAGUARS –5
Packers (5-5) at Steelers (8-2)
LINE: PITTSBURGH by 14
Sometimes you just have to go with the obvious and despite Pittsburgh’s penchant for playing at their opponent’s level, the Steelers are the logical and more reliable choice here. Green Bay is one of several teams that are unable to function without their starting quarterback, especially when that guy is among the best at the position. The drop off from Aaron Rodgers to Brett Hundley is colossal. Hundley’s 63.3 quarterback rating is second lowest among qualified throwers, with only Cleveland’s DeShone Kizer below. The youngster has been sacked 17 times already in his brief career and that will suit Pittsburgh’s sack happy defence just fine. Steelers are hot commodity, covering four of past five games. Mike Tomlin likes to show off in prime time and this being the Sunday nighter, he figures to flaunt his team’s stuff.
TAKING: STEELERS –14
Texans (4-6) at Ravens (5-5)
LINE: BALTIMORE by 7
Probably not your best option for Monday night television viewing. But if you must, can only recommend the Ravens here as Houston cannot pass the ball with Tom Savage as its quarterback and with DT Brandon Williams back in Baltimore’s lineup, running the ball is unlikely to work either. Texans also deteriorating on defence where secondary has allowed 22 passing touchdowns, tying them for most in league. For whatever reason, the Texans suffer from stage fright in this spotlight as they are just 3-7 ATS in past 10 Monday Night Football appearances. Those failures were with much better offensive rosters than this one. Giving away the converted touchdown with Baltimore’s limited offence does have an inherent risk but we’ve seen the Ravens pitch three shutouts thus far and this opponent ranks with same kind of clubs.
TAKING: RAVENS –7
