MTI
5-Star Bills +7 over JETS - Teams that have had trouble scoring recently have not been good investments when laying points. The league is 0-25 ATS as a home favorite the week following a loss as a road dog when they have averaged 14 ppg or less over their last three games and they are facing a team that is at least two games under 500 on the road, as long as both teams are not on five-plus game losing streaks. The SDQL text is:
p:LAD and HF and tA(points,N=3)<=14 and (o:streak>-5 or streak>-5) and oS(AW)-oS(AL)<=-2 and date >= 20061126
The Jets are off a fine defensive effort over the rival, the Miami Dolphins. The game was a big one for the Jets, as the Dolphins had beaten them 20-12 in week two. NY held Miami to only 168 yards of offense, but they lost 13-6 because they committed four turnovers and had no takeaways. It certainly was a tough beat for those who had NYJ +3.5, as the last time the Dolphins has less than 170 yards of offense was week 9, 2013.
We expect it will be difficult for the Jets to recovered mentally and physically from this fruitless effort. NY is 0-16 ATS when they are off a road game in which they allowed at least 7.5 points fewer than their season-to-date average, as long as they are not getting more than a TD. The SDQL text is:
team=Jets and p:A and tA(po
oints) - po
oints >=7.5 and line<=7 and date>=20071001
They have lost each of the last dozen straight up and they were favored in six of them.
In addition, the Jets are 0-6 ATS as a favorite after losing a same-season revenge game. The SDQL here is a tricky:
team=Jets and F and pP:margin<0 and p:L and pP:season=season and date>=19971207
NY is only 1-5 straight up despite being favored by an average of five points.
The Bills certainly have not looked competitive in their last two games, getting beat 25-6 by the Patriots and 41-9 by the Bears. However, the Bills defense was actually played a lot better than the final scores indicate. Buffalo held the Bears to only 190 yards of offense, which is Chicagos lowest yardage output of the season. The Bills offense committed four turnovers and allowed two defensive touchdowns, while their defense did not allow a single TD drive that was over 50 yards and only three third down conversions.
The Bills are an underestimated 13-0 ATS (+10.35 ppg) as a road dog by more than a field goal when they lost by at least a field goal as a dog in each of their last two games. The SDQL text is:
team=Bills and A and line>3 and p
and pp
and p:margin <=-3 and pp:margin<=-3 and date>=20011230
The game listing reveals that the Bills won each of their last four game straight up in this spot. Their last was a 27-6 shellacking of the Vikings in Minnesota in week 3 this season as a 16.5-point underdog.
We are grabbing the points and we are making a significant investment on the moneyline as well.
MTis FORECAST: Bills 20 JETS 10
5-Star Bills +7 over JETS - Teams that have had trouble scoring recently have not been good investments when laying points. The league is 0-25 ATS as a home favorite the week following a loss as a road dog when they have averaged 14 ppg or less over their last three games and they are facing a team that is at least two games under 500 on the road, as long as both teams are not on five-plus game losing streaks. The SDQL text is:
p:LAD and HF and tA(points,N=3)<=14 and (o:streak>-5 or streak>-5) and oS(AW)-oS(AL)<=-2 and date >= 20061126
The Jets are off a fine defensive effort over the rival, the Miami Dolphins. The game was a big one for the Jets, as the Dolphins had beaten them 20-12 in week two. NY held Miami to only 168 yards of offense, but they lost 13-6 because they committed four turnovers and had no takeaways. It certainly was a tough beat for those who had NYJ +3.5, as the last time the Dolphins has less than 170 yards of offense was week 9, 2013.
We expect it will be difficult for the Jets to recovered mentally and physically from this fruitless effort. NY is 0-16 ATS when they are off a road game in which they allowed at least 7.5 points fewer than their season-to-date average, as long as they are not getting more than a TD. The SDQL text is:
team=Jets and p:A and tA(po
They have lost each of the last dozen straight up and they were favored in six of them.
In addition, the Jets are 0-6 ATS as a favorite after losing a same-season revenge game. The SDQL here is a tricky:
team=Jets and F and pP:margin<0 and p:L and pP:season=season and date>=19971207
NY is only 1-5 straight up despite being favored by an average of five points.
The Bills certainly have not looked competitive in their last two games, getting beat 25-6 by the Patriots and 41-9 by the Bears. However, the Bills defense was actually played a lot better than the final scores indicate. Buffalo held the Bears to only 190 yards of offense, which is Chicagos lowest yardage output of the season. The Bills offense committed four turnovers and allowed two defensive touchdowns, while their defense did not allow a single TD drive that was over 50 yards and only three third down conversions.
The Bills are an underestimated 13-0 ATS (+10.35 ppg) as a road dog by more than a field goal when they lost by at least a field goal as a dog in each of their last two games. The SDQL text is:
team=Bills and A and line>3 and p
The game listing reveals that the Bills won each of their last four game straight up in this spot. Their last was a 27-6 shellacking of the Vikings in Minnesota in week 3 this season as a 16.5-point underdog.
We are grabbing the points and we are making a significant investment on the moneyline as well.
MTis FORECAST: Bills 20 JETS 10
MTI
4.5-Star Seahawks +9.5 over RAMS - The Rams suffered their first loss of the season last week and the conventional thought process is to believe that they will bounce back here. However, a check of the results reveals that NFL teams are 57-83-4 ATS in the history of the database after their first losses of the season following at least three wins.
The Rams themselves are 0-10 ATS (-13.45 ppg) vs a divisional opponent when they are off a loss by more than a TD in which they had more third downs made than punts.
The Rams beat the Seahawks 33-31 earlier this season laying 7 in Seattle, and they were trailing 31-24 entering the fourth quarter. This is worth mentioning because the Rams are 0-11 ATS as a favorite over a team they beat earlier in the season while allowing more than 25 yards rushing.
Finally, Robert Woods, who came over from the Bills for the 2017 season, caught seven passes on nine targets for the Rams last week against the Saints, but none went for 20-plus yards. We mention this because the Rams are 0-4 ATS in franchise history at home off a game in which Woods didnt have a 20-plus yard reception, losing every game straight up. T
Turning our attention to the Seahawks, we see that they have been very tough vs teams that have a powerful offense. Seattle is 9-0 ATS on grass vs any team that has averaged 375-plus yards of offense per game season-to-date, covering by an average of 13.5 points per game.
In their last three in this spot, they allowed 6, 10, and 3 points and the second of this trio was a 16-10 win over these Rams last season.
Finally, the Seahawks are 11-0 ATS (+11.59 ppg) vs a divisional opponent that is averaging less than 1.28 turnovers per game.
This is the greatest number of points Russell Wilson has gotten in his NFL career. He has only been a TD-plus dog three times and he is 3-0 ATS in those games. Seattle will not roll over. We are grabbing the points.
MTis FORECAST: RAMS 24 Seahawks 23
4.5-Star Seahawks +9.5 over RAMS - The Rams suffered their first loss of the season last week and the conventional thought process is to believe that they will bounce back here. However, a check of the results reveals that NFL teams are 57-83-4 ATS in the history of the database after their first losses of the season following at least three wins.
The Rams themselves are 0-10 ATS (-13.45 ppg) vs a divisional opponent when they are off a loss by more than a TD in which they had more third downs made than punts.
The Rams beat the Seahawks 33-31 earlier this season laying 7 in Seattle, and they were trailing 31-24 entering the fourth quarter. This is worth mentioning because the Rams are 0-11 ATS as a favorite over a team they beat earlier in the season while allowing more than 25 yards rushing.
Finally, Robert Woods, who came over from the Bills for the 2017 season, caught seven passes on nine targets for the Rams last week against the Saints, but none went for 20-plus yards. We mention this because the Rams are 0-4 ATS in franchise history at home off a game in which Woods didnt have a 20-plus yard reception, losing every game straight up. T
Turning our attention to the Seahawks, we see that they have been very tough vs teams that have a powerful offense. Seattle is 9-0 ATS on grass vs any team that has averaged 375-plus yards of offense per game season-to-date, covering by an average of 13.5 points per game.
In their last three in this spot, they allowed 6, 10, and 3 points and the second of this trio was a 16-10 win over these Rams last season.
Finally, the Seahawks are 11-0 ATS (+11.59 ppg) vs a divisional opponent that is averaging less than 1.28 turnovers per game.
This is the greatest number of points Russell Wilson has gotten in his NFL career. He has only been a TD-plus dog three times and he is 3-0 ATS in those games. Seattle will not roll over. We are grabbing the points.
MTis FORECAST: RAMS 24 Seahawks 23
MTI
4.5-Star Jaguars at Colts UNDER 46.5 - Indianapolis is off their bye and hence has had extra time to prepare for their divisional rival. The last time these two faced off was the Sunday of week 13 last season. The Colts were getting 10.5 in Jacksonville and they lost 30-10. Here, the Colts are a slight favorite. This activates a nice OU system. NFL teams with ten-plus days rest are 0-19 OU (-11.3 ppg) as a 1-3 point home favorite over a divisional opponent when they were a dog the last time they faced this opponent and their previous meeting was on a Sunday.
The average final score in these nineteen games has been 17.5 to 11.9 points.
The Colts are off a 42-28 win over the Raiders, but it was the rushing game that was spectacular. Indianapolis had 239 yards passing and 222 yards rushing. Since the start of the 2008 season, the Colts have rushed for 220-plus yards only twice. These two occurrences were in their last two games. We expect them to feature their rushing attack again. This is relevant because the Colts are 0-10 OU (-8.85 ppg) when they are facing a divisional opponent and they are off a win in which they had at least 8 more rushes than their season-to-date average and accumulated at least 100 rushing yards as a result.
The Jaguars are in disarray. They started the season 3-1 and then lost four straight to fall to 3-5. They are off their bye week and a loss here would crush any remaining hope they have. They cannot possibly be thinking of making this a Bortles vs Luck showdown. They have to revert to fundamentals. This should be a classic battle of field position. Take the UNDER.
MTis FORECAST: COLTS 17 Jaguars 16
4.5-Star Jaguars at Colts UNDER 46.5 - Indianapolis is off their bye and hence has had extra time to prepare for their divisional rival. The last time these two faced off was the Sunday of week 13 last season. The Colts were getting 10.5 in Jacksonville and they lost 30-10. Here, the Colts are a slight favorite. This activates a nice OU system. NFL teams with ten-plus days rest are 0-19 OU (-11.3 ppg) as a 1-3 point home favorite over a divisional opponent when they were a dog the last time they faced this opponent and their previous meeting was on a Sunday.
The average final score in these nineteen games has been 17.5 to 11.9 points.
The Colts are off a 42-28 win over the Raiders, but it was the rushing game that was spectacular. Indianapolis had 239 yards passing and 222 yards rushing. Since the start of the 2008 season, the Colts have rushed for 220-plus yards only twice. These two occurrences were in their last two games. We expect them to feature their rushing attack again. This is relevant because the Colts are 0-10 OU (-8.85 ppg) when they are facing a divisional opponent and they are off a win in which they had at least 8 more rushes than their season-to-date average and accumulated at least 100 rushing yards as a result.
The Jaguars are in disarray. They started the season 3-1 and then lost four straight to fall to 3-5. They are off their bye week and a loss here would crush any remaining hope they have. They cannot possibly be thinking of making this a Bortles vs Luck showdown. They have to revert to fundamentals. This should be a classic battle of field position. Take the UNDER.
MTis FORECAST: COLTS 17 Jaguars 16
DOUBLE DRAGON SPORTS - NFL WEEK #10 - Final Report
7-UNIT TOPS
CHARGERS -9.5 (-115) at raiders (4:05pm)
SEAHAWKS +10 (-120) at rams (4:25pm)
EAGLES -7 (-120) vs cowboys (SNF - 8:20pm)
4-UNIT STRONGS
SAINTS -5.5 at bengals (1pm)
JAGUARS +3 (-120) at colts (1pm)
BEARS -6.5 vs lions (1pm)
GIANTS +3 (even) at 49'ers (MNF - 8:15pm)
*All Lines from VI Consensus 11/9/18 - 8:10pm
**All times Eastern
------------------------------------------------------
4-UNIT STRONG
(L)PANTHERS +4 (-120) at steelers (TNF - 8:20pm)
7-UNIT TOPS
CHARGERS -9.5 (-115) at raiders (4:05pm)
SEAHAWKS +10 (-120) at rams (4:25pm)
EAGLES -7 (-120) vs cowboys (SNF - 8:20pm)
4-UNIT STRONGS
SAINTS -5.5 at bengals (1pm)
JAGUARS +3 (-120) at colts (1pm)
BEARS -6.5 vs lions (1pm)
GIANTS +3 (even) at 49'ers (MNF - 8:15pm)
*All Lines from VI Consensus 11/9/18 - 8:10pm
**All times Eastern
------------------------------------------------------
4-UNIT STRONG
(L)PANTHERS +4 (-120) at steelers (TNF - 8:20pm)
