MTI
4.5-Star Rams at Saints UNDER 57 - Both these teams have good defenses and both have running games. Both will want to limit the number of possessions of their opponent. We are on the UNDER.
The Rams are 0-10 OU on the road off a home win when they are facing a team that is averaging more than 6.6 rushing first downs per game, 0-10 OU on the road on artificial turf when their rushing yards dropped over each of their last two games and they are facing a team that has averaged less than 4.375 yards per carry, and 0-8 OU on the road when the line is within three of pick off a home win. The SDQL for the last of this trio is:
team=Rams and A and -3<=line<=3 and p:HW and date>=20101024
These eight games have stayed under by an average of 11.56 ppg and this includes two overtime games.
The Rams are also 0-8 OU (-9.50 ppg) on artificial turf facing a team that has won each of their last three games and 0-12 OU when they have more than three days rest off a win and they are averaging better than 4.4 yards per rush. The SDQL here is:
team=Rams and p:W and tS(RY) / tS(rushes) >4.4 and rest>3 and season >= 2011
The Rams have a pass rush and a great running back. They should try to avoid an air war with Drew Brees and the Saints.
Shifting our focus to New Orleans, we see that they qualify for a nifty system that makes a lot of handicapping sense. It involves the fact that Saints are a good team and they are facing a team that is ahead of them in the standing and can rush the ball. It reads:
NFL teams that won more than ten games the previous regular season are 0-20 OU at home off a road game when facing a team that has a better winning percentage and has rushed the ball more than 24 times per game season-to-date. Check it out by running this SDQL text:
H and PRSW>10 and p:A and WP24 and date>=20161208
This system was 0-10 OU last season and it is 0-4 OU this season.
Finally, New Orleans is 0-7 OU on artificial turf off a road game when they have more than three days rest and they are facing a team that has an averaged more than 32 minutes of possession time season-to-date, staying under by an average of 10.43 ppg.
The UNDER is the side on which to be.
MTis FORECAST: SAINTS 27 Rams 20
4.5-Star Rams at Saints UNDER 57 - Both these teams have good defenses and both have running games. Both will want to limit the number of possessions of their opponent. We are on the UNDER.
The Rams are 0-10 OU on the road off a home win when they are facing a team that is averaging more than 6.6 rushing first downs per game, 0-10 OU on the road on artificial turf when their rushing yards dropped over each of their last two games and they are facing a team that has averaged less than 4.375 yards per carry, and 0-8 OU on the road when the line is within three of pick off a home win. The SDQL for the last of this trio is:
team=Rams and A and -3<=line<=3 and p:HW and date>=20101024
These eight games have stayed under by an average of 11.56 ppg and this includes two overtime games.
The Rams are also 0-8 OU (-9.50 ppg) on artificial turf facing a team that has won each of their last three games and 0-12 OU when they have more than three days rest off a win and they are averaging better than 4.4 yards per rush. The SDQL here is:
team=Rams and p:W and tS(RY) / tS(rushes) >4.4 and rest>3 and season >= 2011
The Rams have a pass rush and a great running back. They should try to avoid an air war with Drew Brees and the Saints.
Shifting our focus to New Orleans, we see that they qualify for a nifty system that makes a lot of handicapping sense. It involves the fact that Saints are a good team and they are facing a team that is ahead of them in the standing and can rush the ball. It reads:
NFL teams that won more than ten games the previous regular season are 0-20 OU at home off a road game when facing a team that has a better winning percentage and has rushed the ball more than 24 times per game season-to-date. Check it out by running this SDQL text:
H and PRSW>10 and p:A and WP24 and date>=20161208
This system was 0-10 OU last season and it is 0-4 OU this season.
Finally, New Orleans is 0-7 OU on artificial turf off a road game when they have more than three days rest and they are facing a team that has an averaged more than 32 minutes of possession time season-to-date, staying under by an average of 10.43 ppg.
The UNDER is the side on which to be.
MTis FORECAST: SAINTS 27 Rams 20
MTI
4.5-Star Chiefs at Browns UNDER 51.5 - The Chiefs should feel no urgency to score here. They should adopt a conservative strategy and they should run the ball with a lead. The Browns have allowed a lot of yards this season and they have had a lot of trouble on offense recently. The play in the UNDER.
The evidence is strong. TD-plus favorites are 0-32 OU on grass when they are off a game as a favorite and they are facing a team that is off a loss and has allowed 355-plus yards of offense per game season-to-date. Thats 32 straight unders. See for yourself by running this SDQL text:
line <= -7 and surface=grass and p:F and oA(o:TY) >=355 and op:L and date>=20151000
A quick scan of the game listing reveals that the Chiefs were the TD-plus favorite in this spot in three of the 32 games. The final scores in those three games were 10-3, 17-13 and 10-16.
The Chiefs themselves are 0-12 OU as a favorite off a win as a favorite when they are facing a team that has averaged at least 17 ppg over their last two games. The SDQL text is:
team=Chiefs and F and p:WF and oA(passes)>=35 and oA(points,N=2)>=17 and date>=20151225
It is also worth mentioning that Kansas City is 0-11 OU on grass vs a non-divisional opponent when they are off a home win in which fewer than 35 percent of their first downs were from third down. The SDQL here is:
team=Chiefs and surface=grass and NDIV and p:HW and p:3DM / p:FD <0.35 and season >= 2008
Shifting our focus to the Browns we see that they are 0-13 OU (-7.27 ppg) as a TD-plus home dog. The SDQL is a straightforward:
team=Browns and H and 7<=line and date>=20091210
David Njoku had zero fantasy points against the Steelers last week. This is an under indicator, as the Browns are 0-7 OU since the drafted Njoku in 2017 at home after any game in which he did not have a 20-plus yard reception. The SDQL for this one is:
team=Browns and H and Browns
avid Njoku
:longest reception<20 and season>=2017
Finally, Cleveland is 0-11 OU (-10.00 ppg) at home after a SU and ATS loss.
Gregg Williams is a hard-nosed defensive coach. He likely will not get a win in his first game as a head coach of the Browns. However, the team will play aggressively and with passion. Certainly it would not be unreasonable for Andy Reid to play conservatively to avoid injury to his players. Make the UNDER the play and it will probably be a good idea to get the current line of 51.5.
MTis FORECAST: Chiefs 20 BROWNS 16
4.5-Star Chiefs at Browns UNDER 51.5 - The Chiefs should feel no urgency to score here. They should adopt a conservative strategy and they should run the ball with a lead. The Browns have allowed a lot of yards this season and they have had a lot of trouble on offense recently. The play in the UNDER.
The evidence is strong. TD-plus favorites are 0-32 OU on grass when they are off a game as a favorite and they are facing a team that is off a loss and has allowed 355-plus yards of offense per game season-to-date. Thats 32 straight unders. See for yourself by running this SDQL text:
line <= -7 and surface=grass and p:F and oA(o:TY) >=355 and op:L and date>=20151000
A quick scan of the game listing reveals that the Chiefs were the TD-plus favorite in this spot in three of the 32 games. The final scores in those three games were 10-3, 17-13 and 10-16.
The Chiefs themselves are 0-12 OU as a favorite off a win as a favorite when they are facing a team that has averaged at least 17 ppg over their last two games. The SDQL text is:
team=Chiefs and F and p:WF and oA(passes)>=35 and oA(points,N=2)>=17 and date>=20151225
It is also worth mentioning that Kansas City is 0-11 OU on grass vs a non-divisional opponent when they are off a home win in which fewer than 35 percent of their first downs were from third down. The SDQL here is:
team=Chiefs and surface=grass and NDIV and p:HW and p:3DM / p:FD <0.35 and season >= 2008
Shifting our focus to the Browns we see that they are 0-13 OU (-7.27 ppg) as a TD-plus home dog. The SDQL is a straightforward:
team=Browns and H and 7<=line and date>=20091210
David Njoku had zero fantasy points against the Steelers last week. This is an under indicator, as the Browns are 0-7 OU since the drafted Njoku in 2017 at home after any game in which he did not have a 20-plus yard reception. The SDQL for this one is:
team=Browns and H and Browns
Finally, Cleveland is 0-11 OU (-10.00 ppg) at home after a SU and ATS loss.
Gregg Williams is a hard-nosed defensive coach. He likely will not get a win in his first game as a head coach of the Browns. However, the team will play aggressively and with passion. Certainly it would not be unreasonable for Andy Reid to play conservatively to avoid injury to his players. Make the UNDER the play and it will probably be a good idea to get the current line of 51.5.
MTis FORECAST: Chiefs 20 BROWNS 16
MTI
5-Star Buccaneers at Panthers UNDER 55 - This number is whack. The Panthers are a very conservative team when they are expected to win. They will control the clock, play tough defense and keep the ball out of the hands of the Bucs offense.
In the history of the database, the Panthers are 0-6 OU as a home favorite when the OU line is higher than 48 (and 5-0 OU on the road with the OU line is higher than 48).
More evidence is the Panthers trend number 14 from the 2018 KillerSports.com Journal of Football Research, which reads, CAR014: The Panthers are 0-18 OU (-8.97 ppg) as a single-digit home favorite vs a divisional opponent that had fewer regular season wins the previous season.
The Panthers scored a lot of points vs the best defense in the league last week and this is contributing to the inflated line. As a dog, however, the Panthers will be more aggressive on offense. Here, they are a TD-plus favorite and should adopt a more Neanderthal pace.
Trendwise, we note that Carolina is 0-11 OU (-8.73 ppg) after a game as a home dog in which they scored at least nine points more than their season-to-date average. The SDQL text is:
team=Panthers and p:HD and tA(p
oints) - p
oints <= -9 and season >= 1999
Further, the Panthers are 0-12 OU on grass vs a divisional opponent that is not winless on the season and is averaging at least 12.5 passing first downs per game. The SDQL text is:
team=Panthers and surface=grass and DIV and oA(PFD)>12.5 and o:wins>0 and season >= 2013
For the Buccaneers, we can cite their trend number 13 from the 2018 KillerSports.com Journal of Football Research, which reads, TB013: The Buccaneers are 0-17 OU (-9.79 ppg) on grass off a road game when they are facing a team that is averaging more than 13 passing first downs per game.
Finally, Tampa Bay is 0-7 OU (-10.57 ppg) on grass when their QB was sacked 3+ times in each of their last two games, 0-6 OU (-14.08 ppg) when they are off a loss and they converted at least five third downs in each of their last two games, and 0-6 OU (-14.75 ppg) on grass facing an opponent that is off two consecutive games with a positive takeaway margin. Those are some nice average margins and they make great handicapping sense.
There is PLENTY of room under this number.
MTIs FORECAST: Panthers 23 Buccaneers 17
5-Star Buccaneers at Panthers UNDER 55 - This number is whack. The Panthers are a very conservative team when they are expected to win. They will control the clock, play tough defense and keep the ball out of the hands of the Bucs offense.
In the history of the database, the Panthers are 0-6 OU as a home favorite when the OU line is higher than 48 (and 5-0 OU on the road with the OU line is higher than 48).
More evidence is the Panthers trend number 14 from the 2018 KillerSports.com Journal of Football Research, which reads, CAR014: The Panthers are 0-18 OU (-8.97 ppg) as a single-digit home favorite vs a divisional opponent that had fewer regular season wins the previous season.
The Panthers scored a lot of points vs the best defense in the league last week and this is contributing to the inflated line. As a dog, however, the Panthers will be more aggressive on offense. Here, they are a TD-plus favorite and should adopt a more Neanderthal pace.
Trendwise, we note that Carolina is 0-11 OU (-8.73 ppg) after a game as a home dog in which they scored at least nine points more than their season-to-date average. The SDQL text is:
team=Panthers and p:HD and tA(p
Further, the Panthers are 0-12 OU on grass vs a divisional opponent that is not winless on the season and is averaging at least 12.5 passing first downs per game. The SDQL text is:
team=Panthers and surface=grass and DIV and oA(PFD)>12.5 and o:wins>0 and season >= 2013
For the Buccaneers, we can cite their trend number 13 from the 2018 KillerSports.com Journal of Football Research, which reads, TB013: The Buccaneers are 0-17 OU (-9.79 ppg) on grass off a road game when they are facing a team that is averaging more than 13 passing first downs per game.
Finally, Tampa Bay is 0-7 OU (-10.57 ppg) on grass when their QB was sacked 3+ times in each of their last two games, 0-6 OU (-14.08 ppg) when they are off a loss and they converted at least five third downs in each of their last two games, and 0-6 OU (-14.75 ppg) on grass facing an opponent that is off two consecutive games with a positive takeaway margin. Those are some nice average margins and they make great handicapping sense.
There is PLENTY of room under this number.
MTIs FORECAST: Panthers 23 Buccaneers 17
MTI
4.5-Star BILLS +9.5 over Bears - The Bears will expect turnovers and they will feature their rushing and short passing game. This makes the Bills the play.
Chicago is 0-11 ATS on the road off a win by more than a TD as a favorite when they play their next two game at home. The SDQL text is:
team=Bears and p:F and p:margin>7 and A and n:H and nn:H and season >= 1993
Also, the Bears are 0-14 ATS (-14.75 ppg) as a favorite over a non-divisional opponent after a game in which they rushed for 145-plus yards.
Chicago is 1-7 straight up their last eight in this spot, with their lone straight up win by a 23-22 margin laying 7.5; and they needed to outscore their opponent 16-3 in the fourth quarter to get the win.
The Bears are also 0-11 ATS (-10.64 ppg) on the road after a game in which fewer than 30 percent of their previous opponents first downs were from third down and 0-7 ATS (-8.36 ppg) as a favorite after a win in which they never trailed.
Buffalo hung with the Patriots for the first three quarters last week before being outscored 13-0 in the fourth to lose 25-6. Buffalo passed for 287 yards and they are still dead last in the league at 149 passing yards per game. However, the Bills are 13-0 ATS at home vs a non-divisional foe when they are off a game in which they passed for at least 66 more yards than their season-to-date average, as long as they did not win that game by 27-plus points. The SDQL text is:
team=Bills and H and NDIV and tA(p
Y) - pY <= -66 and p:margin<27 and season >= 2004
Buffalo has won each of their last five in this spot, with every win by MORE than a TD.
The Bills have played poorly the past two weeks, but they continue to be underestimated in this spot. Buffalo is 13-0 ATS (+10.54 ppg) as a TD-plus dog when they lost and failed to cover each of their last two games. The SDQL for this one is:
team=Bills and line>=7 and p:L and p:ATSL and pp:L and pp:ATSL
They were in this spot once already this season and they crushed the Vikings 26-7 getting 16.5 points.
The Bears have a rookie head coach and they tend to play not-to-lose rather than to win. Make Buffalo the play.
MTis FORECAST: Bears 20 BILLS 17
4.5-Star BILLS +9.5 over Bears - The Bears will expect turnovers and they will feature their rushing and short passing game. This makes the Bills the play.
Chicago is 0-11 ATS on the road off a win by more than a TD as a favorite when they play their next two game at home. The SDQL text is:
team=Bears and p:F and p:margin>7 and A and n:H and nn:H and season >= 1993
Also, the Bears are 0-14 ATS (-14.75 ppg) as a favorite over a non-divisional opponent after a game in which they rushed for 145-plus yards.
Chicago is 1-7 straight up their last eight in this spot, with their lone straight up win by a 23-22 margin laying 7.5; and they needed to outscore their opponent 16-3 in the fourth quarter to get the win.
The Bears are also 0-11 ATS (-10.64 ppg) on the road after a game in which fewer than 30 percent of their previous opponents first downs were from third down and 0-7 ATS (-8.36 ppg) as a favorite after a win in which they never trailed.
Buffalo hung with the Patriots for the first three quarters last week before being outscored 13-0 in the fourth to lose 25-6. Buffalo passed for 287 yards and they are still dead last in the league at 149 passing yards per game. However, the Bills are 13-0 ATS at home vs a non-divisional foe when they are off a game in which they passed for at least 66 more yards than their season-to-date average, as long as they did not win that game by 27-plus points. The SDQL text is:
team=Bills and H and NDIV and tA(p
Y) - pY <= -66 and p:margin<27 and season >= 2004 Buffalo has won each of their last five in this spot, with every win by MORE than a TD.
The Bills have played poorly the past two weeks, but they continue to be underestimated in this spot. Buffalo is 13-0 ATS (+10.54 ppg) as a TD-plus dog when they lost and failed to cover each of their last two games. The SDQL for this one is:
team=Bills and line>=7 and p:L and p:ATSL and pp:L and pp:ATSL
They were in this spot once already this season and they crushed the Vikings 26-7 getting 16.5 points.
The Bears have a rookie head coach and they tend to play not-to-lose rather than to win. Make Buffalo the play.
MTis FORECAST: Bears 20 BILLS 17
Goodfella | NFL ML - Sunday, Nov 4 2018 4:25PM
ML 470 NOS (-115) William Hill vs 469 LOS triple-dime bet
Analysis: 3* on NEW ORLEANS SAINTS money-line
Note: This line and money-line have moved since I be and released this on Monday. I do like this up to -3 for a GOY size play, as I have the Saints winning this game by a touchdown.
Note: I personally have a 4* size play on this game. A little larger than our normal 3* size biggest bets. I obviously love this game & why I'm letting you know that I'm personally betting this game as a very rare 4* size play. Just passing along what I've done here. This is my biggest bet in the NFL this entire season.
ML 470 NOS (-115) William Hill vs 469 LOS triple-dime bet
Analysis: 3* on NEW ORLEANS SAINTS money-line
Note: This line and money-line have moved since I be and released this on Monday. I do like this up to -3 for a GOY size play, as I have the Saints winning this game by a touchdown.
Note: I personally have a 4* size play on this game. A little larger than our normal 3* size biggest bets. I obviously love this game & why I'm letting you know that I'm personally betting this game as a very rare 4* size play. Just passing along what I've done here. This is my biggest bet in the NFL this entire season.
