MTI
5-Star Panthers +5 over EAGLES - The Panthers came out flat vs the Redskins last week. Their first four drives ended in punt, punt, interception, fumble and they found themselves behind 14-0 in a hurry. They only rushed the ball eighteen times and Cam Newton had nine of those. This slots them into a play-on spot. Road teams that won more than ten games the previous season are 17-0 ATS when they are off a road game in which they had fewer than 27 minutes of possession time and rushed the ball at least eight time fewer than their season-to-date average, as long as they werent outgained by 300-plus yards. The SDQL text is:
A and PRSW>10 and p:A and p:rushes - tA(p:rushes) < -8 and p:TOP/60 < 27 and date>=20090927 and p:TY-po:TY > - 300
Teams in this spot have covered the spread by an average of 12.88 ppg. Dogs in this spot have done even better, as they are 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS, covering by an average of 16.08 ppg.
The Panthers themselves are 15-0 ATS (+12.80 ppg) on grass off a road loss in which they rushed for fewer than 185 yards and they are averaging better than 4.35 yards per rush season-to-date. The SDQL for this one is:
team=Panthers and surface=grass and p:AL and tS(RY) / tS(rushes)>4.35 and p:RY<185
Finally, Carolina is a character-revealing 10-0 ATS since Ron Rivera became their head coach in 2011 as a dog off a SU and ATS loss on the road, covering the number by an average of 16.00 ppg. The SDQL text is:
coach = Ron Rivera and D and p:AL and p:ATSL
Wow.
Teams in the Eagles spot have had a difficult time living up to expectations. Home teams on grass that won more than ten games the previous regular season are 0-16 ATS on Sunday off a win as a favorite when they have averaged more than 23.5 ppg over their last three games. The SDQL for this recently emerging system is:
H and surface=grass and PRSW>10 and p:WF and tA(points,N=3)>23.5 and day=Sunday and date>=20160000
This play-against system produced six winners last season and it is has produced two so far this season.
Philadelphia won 34-13 last week against the Giants to get to 500 for the third time this season. The Eagles, however, are 0-8 ATS when they are off a game as a favorite and have a record of 500.
The three teams that Philadelphia has beaten this season have a combined record of 4-14 (1-5, 2-4, 1-5) and they LOST to the Buccaneers, Titans and Vikings. If the Panthers can control the tempo, they should win straight up.
MTis FORECAST: Panthers 24 EAGLES 17
MTI
4.5-Star Bills at Colts OVER 43 - The Bills have an average possession time that is 2.5 minutes greater than the Colts average possession time this season. Games in which a big home favorite relies on the pass and doesnt have a large possession time advantage tend to be higher scoring than expected. Road six-plus point underdogs off a loss are 20-0 OU vs a team that has gotten at least 68% of their first downs through the air season-to-date and is not averaging four-plus minutes more of possession time. The SDQL text is:
A and line>=6 and p:L and oS(PFD)/oS(FD) > 0.68 and tA(TOP)-oA(TOP) > -240 and date>=20121200
The Bills themselves are 10-0 OU on artificial turf when facing a team that is averaging fewer than 25 rushes per game and 12-0 OU when they are off a loss and facing a team that has averaged less than 27:54 of possession time. The SDQL for the second of this pair is:
team=Bills and p:L and oA(TOP/60) < 27.9 and season >= 2009
Buffalo is also 6-0 OU visiting a team that is off three-plus consecutive losses, screaming over the total by an average of 21.67 ppg.
Indianapolis has allowed 37, 38 and 42 points in their last three games respectively. Their defense has allowed a lot of third down conversions and this points to the over. Teams that won fewer than six games the previous season are 29-3 OU on turf when they are off a loss and they allowed at least four third down conversions in each of their last two games, as long as they did not have a double-digit lead in that loss. The SDQL for this system is:
surface=artificial and PRSW<6 and p:BL<10 and p:L and ppo:3DM>=4 and po:3DM>=4 and date>=20151129
This season, it is 7-0 OU.
As a team, the Colts are 8-0 OU at home vs playing a non-divisional opponent that has a third down make percentage less than 35, zipping over the total by a crisp 14.81 ppg.
The value is with the OVER.
MTis FORECAST: Bills 27 COLTS 23