Steve Merril
Sunday, Oct. 15
NFL
(3% play) ARIZONA +1.5 (vs. Tampa Bay) - 4:05 pm ET #268
-Tampa Bay is just 2-2 on the season despite playing a weak schedule with three home games
-offense is below average while averaging just 21.2 points per game vs. defenses that allow 24.1
-Buccaneers' defense gave up 34 points on a whopping 7.1 yards per play in their lone road game
-Arizona returns home off an embarrassing 34-7 loss in Philadelphia; expect bounce back effort
-offense averages 289 passing yards per game; Bucs give up 309 pypg on 7.4 yards per attempt
-Cardinals' defense is giving up just 21.5 points per game on 4.8 yards per play at home
Play CARDINALS (+) as a 3% play.
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(3% play) PITTSBURGH +3.5 (at Kansas City) - 4:25 pm ET #269
-Pittsburgh is off an ugly 30-9 home loss to Jacksonville, so expect a bounce-back performance here
-offense has played strong defenses that only give up 5.3 yards per play; Chiefs allow 6.0 yppl
-Steelers' defense is excellent, giving up just 17.8 points per game on 4.8 yards per play
-Kansas City is a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS, but off high-scoring game on Sunday night, letdown here
-offense has faced a group of terrible defenses that allow 6.0 yards per play; stepping up in class
-Chiefs defense is giving up 6.0 yards per play overall, and 6.5 yards per play at home
Play STEELERS (+) as a 3% play.
Sunday, Oct. 15
NFL
(3% play) ARIZONA +1.5 (vs. Tampa Bay) - 4:05 pm ET #268
-Tampa Bay is just 2-2 on the season despite playing a weak schedule with three home games
-offense is below average while averaging just 21.2 points per game vs. defenses that allow 24.1
-Buccaneers' defense gave up 34 points on a whopping 7.1 yards per play in their lone road game
-Arizona returns home off an embarrassing 34-7 loss in Philadelphia; expect bounce back effort
-offense averages 289 passing yards per game; Bucs give up 309 pypg on 7.4 yards per attempt
-Cardinals' defense is giving up just 21.5 points per game on 4.8 yards per play at home
Play CARDINALS (+) as a 3% play.
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(3% play) PITTSBURGH +3.5 (at Kansas City) - 4:25 pm ET #269
-Pittsburgh is off an ugly 30-9 home loss to Jacksonville, so expect a bounce-back performance here
-offense has played strong defenses that only give up 5.3 yards per play; Chiefs allow 6.0 yppl
-Steelers' defense is excellent, giving up just 17.8 points per game on 4.8 yards per play
-Kansas City is a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS, but off high-scoring game on Sunday night, letdown here
-offense has faced a group of terrible defenses that allow 6.0 yards per play; stepping up in class
-Chiefs defense is giving up 6.0 yards per play overall, and 6.5 yards per play at home
Play STEELERS (+) as a 3% play.
Totals 4 You NFL Selections for Early Sunday, October 15th 2017 NFL Super Totals 3-Teamer of the Year!!!!!
New England/New York under 47 1/2
Detroit/New Orleans under 50 1/2
Green Bay/Minnesota under 46 1/2
2-1 or Bettr or we'll email you Tonight's Giants @ Broncos Winner Free of Charge!!!
Early NFL Best Bets
Cleveland/Houston under 47
Miami/Atlanta under 45 1/2
San Francisco/Washington under 46
New England/New York under 47 1/2
Detroit/New Orleans under 50 1/2
Green Bay/Minnesota under 46 1/2
2-1 or Bettr or we'll email you Tonight's Giants @ Broncos Winner Free of Charge!!!
Early NFL Best Bets
Cleveland/Houston under 47
Miami/Atlanta under 45 1/2
San Francisco/Washington under 46
Stephen Nover
3* GOM - New England -9.5
There's actually a bit of line value in taking the Patriots with the Jets riding an improbable three-game win streak. Credit to the Jets for beating the Dolphins and Jaguars. They were fortunate, though, to defeat the winless Browns. The Jets are putting forth an effort. They will give their best shot here in this division rivalry. However, they are no match for the Patriots. The talent gap between these two offenses is the size of the Grand Canyon. Tom Brady remains a top-three quarterback. He's leading the NFL in passing yards and has the second-highest quarterback rating. The Patriots have outstanding wide receivers and excellent running back versatility and depth. Rob Gronkowski should be able to play this week, too. The Jets have a popgun offense made worse in that their best runner, Bilal Powell, isn't expected to play. The Patriots are on extra rest since they played last Thursday. The Patriots' defense finally showed some improvement against a dangerous Tampa Bay offense. Belichick should be able to make further fixes with the added preparation time. The Patriots' disappointing cornerbacks shouldn't have any problems handling the Jets' non-descript wide receivers. This is a kill spot for the Patriots. They're not going to let up against this hated foe either.
2* TOW
SF / WAS : OVER 46.5
Both team's offenses are heating up. After five games, the 49ers are showing signs of picking up Kyle Shanahan's intrigue schemes and designs. Brian Hoyer is coming off his best game as a 49er throwing for two touchdown passes and 353 yards while compiling a 101.1 passer rating against the Colts on the road last week. The Redskins will be without their elite cornerback, injured Josh Norman. Shanahan and Pierre Garcon, who is having a good year for the 49ers, know the Redskins well. Shanahan was Washington's offensive coordinator from 2010-2013 while Garcon played the previous five seasons for the Redskins. They will know the soft spots in the Redskins' coverage. Kirk Cousins is back on track for Washington. He's 39-for-54 for 585 yards with a five-to-zero touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last two games. The Redskins will be fresh having had their bye last week. The time off has allowed star tight end Jordan Reed to be healthy for the first time this season. The 49ers defense gives up the fifth-most yards per game and is second-to-last in opponent's third-down percentage. San Francisco's defense could get tired early, too. This marks San Francisco's third consecutive road game. It's an early start time, too, for the 49ers. The 49ers defense has had to endure overtime games the past two weeks. They've been on the field 37:17 and 36:15 during the past two games.
2* TOTAL TERMINATOR
LA CHARGERS / OKL : UNDER 49.5
The total is set high here because Derek Carr is back behind center after suffering a fracture in his back that caused him to miss last week. That type of injury normally keeps a player out 2-to-6 weeks. Carr still has pain in his back. The Chargers have a strong pass rush thanks to Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram, who have combined for 12 sacks. That's the most in the league among two teammates. So the Raiders have to be extremely careful with their franchise quarterback. That likely means more running plays and short, quick passes where Carr isn't so much at risk. This will keep the clock moving. Oakland's offense hasn't been in gear. The Raiders have put up only 37 points in their last three games. Amari Cooper and Marshawn Lynch are having terrible seasons so far. The Chargers' success rides on Philip Rivers and he isn't having a good season either. Rivers is completing less than 60 percent of his throws, has five interceptions and ranks just 21st in passer ratings. LA is likely to run more than usual, too, because the Raiders have a trio of undersized linebackers and middle linebacker, Marquel Lee, is out. Another reason not to expect a Rivers-Carr shootout is the Enviornmental Protection Agency has said the air quality is unhealthy for this game, which is being played at the Oakland Coliseum. This is due to the lingering North Bay fires. I look at this circumstance as a plus for the Under because the teams could run the ball more during the final quarter trying to gain the upper hand by controlling the trenches.
3* GOM - New England -9.5
There's actually a bit of line value in taking the Patriots with the Jets riding an improbable three-game win streak. Credit to the Jets for beating the Dolphins and Jaguars. They were fortunate, though, to defeat the winless Browns. The Jets are putting forth an effort. They will give their best shot here in this division rivalry. However, they are no match for the Patriots. The talent gap between these two offenses is the size of the Grand Canyon. Tom Brady remains a top-three quarterback. He's leading the NFL in passing yards and has the second-highest quarterback rating. The Patriots have outstanding wide receivers and excellent running back versatility and depth. Rob Gronkowski should be able to play this week, too. The Jets have a popgun offense made worse in that their best runner, Bilal Powell, isn't expected to play. The Patriots are on extra rest since they played last Thursday. The Patriots' defense finally showed some improvement against a dangerous Tampa Bay offense. Belichick should be able to make further fixes with the added preparation time. The Patriots' disappointing cornerbacks shouldn't have any problems handling the Jets' non-descript wide receivers. This is a kill spot for the Patriots. They're not going to let up against this hated foe either.
2* TOW
SF / WAS : OVER 46.5
Both team's offenses are heating up. After five games, the 49ers are showing signs of picking up Kyle Shanahan's intrigue schemes and designs. Brian Hoyer is coming off his best game as a 49er throwing for two touchdown passes and 353 yards while compiling a 101.1 passer rating against the Colts on the road last week. The Redskins will be without their elite cornerback, injured Josh Norman. Shanahan and Pierre Garcon, who is having a good year for the 49ers, know the Redskins well. Shanahan was Washington's offensive coordinator from 2010-2013 while Garcon played the previous five seasons for the Redskins. They will know the soft spots in the Redskins' coverage. Kirk Cousins is back on track for Washington. He's 39-for-54 for 585 yards with a five-to-zero touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last two games. The Redskins will be fresh having had their bye last week. The time off has allowed star tight end Jordan Reed to be healthy for the first time this season. The 49ers defense gives up the fifth-most yards per game and is second-to-last in opponent's third-down percentage. San Francisco's defense could get tired early, too. This marks San Francisco's third consecutive road game. It's an early start time, too, for the 49ers. The 49ers defense has had to endure overtime games the past two weeks. They've been on the field 37:17 and 36:15 during the past two games.
2* TOTAL TERMINATOR
LA CHARGERS / OKL : UNDER 49.5
The total is set high here because Derek Carr is back behind center after suffering a fracture in his back that caused him to miss last week. That type of injury normally keeps a player out 2-to-6 weeks. Carr still has pain in his back. The Chargers have a strong pass rush thanks to Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram, who have combined for 12 sacks. That's the most in the league among two teammates. So the Raiders have to be extremely careful with their franchise quarterback. That likely means more running plays and short, quick passes where Carr isn't so much at risk. This will keep the clock moving. Oakland's offense hasn't been in gear. The Raiders have put up only 37 points in their last three games. Amari Cooper and Marshawn Lynch are having terrible seasons so far. The Chargers' success rides on Philip Rivers and he isn't having a good season either. Rivers is completing less than 60 percent of his throws, has five interceptions and ranks just 21st in passer ratings. LA is likely to run more than usual, too, because the Raiders have a trio of undersized linebackers and middle linebacker, Marquel Lee, is out. Another reason not to expect a Rivers-Carr shootout is the Enviornmental Protection Agency has said the air quality is unhealthy for this game, which is being played at the Oakland Coliseum. This is due to the lingering North Bay fires. I look at this circumstance as a plus for the Under because the teams could run the ball more during the final quarter trying to gain the upper hand by controlling the trenches.
