Saints over 50.5 is the GOY.
King Creole
#307-308
4:40pm ET (1:40pm PT)
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
3*** BEST BET on: OVER THE TOTAL
*Optimum OU line: 50.5 or less points
Get your play in ASAP. And we’re giving out plenty of time to make SURE your OU line in this one is 50.5 or less points. Yes, we’re confident that we’ll get to 62 or more combined points in this one. But JUST IN CASE this game finishes exactly on the key OU number of 51 points, we still want to be able to cash a W. For us and our Totals Team, we are revisiting good vibes from the past (last year’s 5* winner)…. and also going back to the ‘scene of the crime’. It was exactly 12 months ago this Sunday that we were on the Saints @ Vikings OVER (46.5) as our 5* Playoff GOY. In that game, we thought we had NO chance at halftime, as the score was Minnesota 17 - New Orleans 0. But we got a LOT of points in the 4th quarter (29 to be exact) to rise from the ashes and cash a W. As far as the ‘scene of the crime’ reference, THAT options to this season’s early meeting. Back on Nov. 18th, we used the Eagles @ Saints OVER as our 5* GOM for November. And we got BURNED. The OU line in that game was 56.5 points. And if you knew beforehand that New Orleans would score 48 points, you probably would have bet your house on the OVER. But alas, despite 546 total yards for the Saints, that game SOMEHOW still stayed Under. Reason? Philly was held to only 196 total yards and 7 measly points. We ended up losing by a point and a half. Little did we know back then (when we were bumming big-time) that we would get a chance at REDEMPTION in the Playoffs. So here we are. Our Playbook NFL database models and simulations, with an emphasis on the LAST MONTH of play projects this game to finish somewhere around 37-24…. 38-24… 31-27… 34-27.
While we certainly acknowledge that New Orleans has turned into a monster RUNNING team this season (#6 in the league / 126.6 rushing YPG)… this one does not set up well for massive rushing production… for EITHER team. Sharp OU bettors are already aware that Philadelphia is one of the worst running teams in the league this season, ranked #29 with only 94.8 risking YPG. And the fact that they are also facing the #2 rushing DEFENSE in the league (New Orleans allows only 80.2 rising YPG) means that the Eagles will indeed be ‘pass-HEAVY’. They’ve thrown for more than 300 yards per game. And the KICKER is that NFL teams can indeed throw on the Saints. New Orleans actually had the 4h WORST passing defense in the entire league in 2018. They allowed 269 passing YPG… which was right behind Cincy (276.0 passing YOG allowed)… Kansas City (273.1)… and (coincidently) PHILADELPHIA (279.9 passing YPG allowed. Since we just brought up that we have TWO of the worst FOUR passing defenses taking on each other, let’s run with that. Yes, we’re aware that New Orleans is great rushing team. But Philly has a great rising DEFENSE. They’re ranked #6 in the league, allowing only 95.1 yards per game on there ground. So it’s been very difficult as of late for teams to have any sort of success on the ground vs the Eagles. In the last four games, NFL teams have rushed for only 82 yards, 62 yards, 31 yards, and 65 yards vs Philly. And you’ll really be blown away WHY there will be so many passes in this game when you see this stat: The past four offenses to face the EAGLES have dropped back to pass a whopping 189 times (that’s an avg of 47 passes per game)... while calling only 55 rushing plays (only 14 per game)!… Nuff ‘said.
With Philly off a very LOW-scoring Playoff win against the Bears last week (only 16 to 15), a lot of O/U players will be gun-shy about betting an Eagles OVER this week. But not us…. Since 1985, NFL Playoff teams off a Playoff WIN in which they scrod 16 or less points (EAGLES) have gone17-3 O/U. That includes a PERFECT 8-0 O/U since the 2001 season. The average OU MARGIN in these games? +15.8 points per game!
Yes, we’re aware that Philly has only allowed 15 and ZERO points in their last two games. That’s ok. Because, NFL Playoff road or neutral UNDERDOGS who allowed 15 < points in EACH of their last two games (EAGLES) have gone 9-1-1 O/U.
That loss back on Nov. 18th was the most embarrassing in Eagles history. So the Revenge motivation also plays a part in our OU Best Bet… 7-0 O/U last three years: All NFL Playoff UNDERDOGS with REVENGE when the OU line is a high 47.5 or more points (EAGLES). Average combined points in these games: 59.3.
New Orleans comes in with a brilliant 13-3 record this year and the #1 seed in the entire NFL Conference… 24-6-2 o/U since 2009 / 10-2 O/U last 3 years / 8-1 O.U LAST season: All .800 or better PLAYOFF teams when the OU line is 53 or less points (SAINTS).
The fact that those is actually the THIRD home game in a row for the Saints is a good sign for OVER bettors… 13-2-1 O/U since 1993: All NFL non-division Playoff HOME favorites of -2 > points off back-to-back home games (SAINTS).
New Orleans closed the regular season with a home DOG loss to the Carolina Panthers. That line (+6.5) was understandable given the fact that Drew Brees and company dod not play in that last game, But is also setup a nice OVER situation: 7-1-1 O/U All-Time: All BIG Playoff favorites of > 7 points who were an UNDERDOGS of +6 > points in their last regular season game (SAINTS).
Elevating this game even further into BEST BET territory is a look at both teams from an individual OU platform.
The EAGLES have been one of the league’s BEST road OVER teams in the last four years. They have gone 20-6 O/U in their last 26 road games dating back to the 2015 season. That includes 16-4 O/U when the OU line is in the range of 43 to 56 points… and a PERFECT 4-0 O/U this season.
All sharp OU bettors already know that the Saints are the BEST home OVER team in the entire NFL over the last six seasons. But did you know this? New Orleans is 14-4 O/U All-Time in all Playoff games. And that includes a PERFECT 9-0 O/U when playing at HOME in the post-season. Average OU margin: +9.3 points per game.
Wayne Root's NFL PLAYOFFS GAME OF THE YEAR, Sunday
Pinnacle New Orleans
Stop waving the pennants, put them back on the wall, no need for pompons, this is not college football where revenge plays a vital role. There’s a reason that the Saints destroyed the Eagles week’s ago. So here’s what we have. The public screaming for revenge. The public getting on the Nick Foles bandwagon. The public remembering last season and want it to happen again. The public living a “feels good” storyline. But the Oddsmakers are not buying it. They opened the line high and the public fell all over it and are betting the Eagles causing the pointspread to fall in our favor. The sportsbooks actually need the Saints this week. Almost unheard of for them to need a popular home favorite. Look for Brees and company to be fresh and a ton of touchdowns from him.
Pinnacle New Orleans
Stop waving the pennants, put them back on the wall, no need for pompons, this is not college football where revenge plays a vital role. There’s a reason that the Saints destroyed the Eagles week’s ago. So here’s what we have. The public screaming for revenge. The public getting on the Nick Foles bandwagon. The public remembering last season and want it to happen again. The public living a “feels good” storyline. But the Oddsmakers are not buying it. They opened the line high and the public fell all over it and are betting the Eagles causing the pointspread to fall in our favor. The sportsbooks actually need the Saints this week. Almost unheard of for them to need a popular home favorite. Look for Brees and company to be fresh and a ton of touchdowns from him.
