DWAYNE BRYANT
SUNDAY, September 23, 2018
NFL -- 1:00 PM ET
[473] Oakland Raiders at [474] Miami Dolphins
PLAY: OVER 44.5 (-104)
BET SIZE: 5%
My football totals system is a combination of relevant statistical data, history involving similar games, and current market data. A play is made when enough of these factors align. The size of the play is determined by a combination of how many of these factors align, how much value is perceived, and how confident I am about the play.
Projected Points Scored = 52
Miami has a balanced offense, and Oakland's defense is severely lacking in many areas. One of those areas is their pass rush. The Raiders have arguably the worst pass rush in the NFL now that Khalil Mack is playing in Chicago. Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill has proven to be a very solid QB when he has a clean pocket, and he should have plenty of that in this one.
Oakland's offense is better than what we've seen so far in 2018. They faced a very tough Rams defense in Week 1, and then traveled to Denver to take on another solid D. I expect the Raiders to find plenty of success against a Miami defense that faced a rookie QB in Week 2 (Jets' Sam Darnold) and Titans backup QB Blaine Gabbert in Week 1. Derek Carr is much better than either of those two, and he has solid weapons in receivers Amari Cooper and Jordy Nelson, and TE Jared Cook.
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NFL -- 1:00 PM ET
[479] San Francisco 49ers at [480] Kansas City Chiefs
PLAY: [479] SAN FRANCISCO +6.5 (-105)
BET SIZE: 4%
After scoring a combined 80 points in upset road wins at the Chargers and Steelers, the Chiefs and wonder-boy QB Patrick Mahomes find themselves the darlings of recreational bettors everywhere. But this is a tough spot for KC to cover, as this line is a bit inflated. And teams playing their home opener in Week 3 are just 8-24-2 ATS since 2007.
This will be KC's first time as a favorite this season. Laying point with a lousy defense is never a good idea. The Chiefs have allowed the most yards through two games, and they will once again be without the QB of their defense, safety Eric Berry. Niners QB Jimmy Garrapolo is 8-1 as a starter, and more than capable of keeping his team in this one.
Bottom line: I love getting points with the better defense, and the 49ers D welcomes back LB Reuben Foster from suspension. I wouldn't be surprised if Jimmy G leads the Niners to an upset victory.
(We've lost a few 5% plays in a row, BUT that does NOT make us any more likely to win this one! Bet it for 5% and nothing more!)