Randall the Handle
Jaguars (12-6) at Patriots (14-3)
LINE: NEW ENGLAND by 9
The Jaguars own a top defence, they were second to Baltimore in takeaways this regular season with 33 (21 interceptions, 12 fumble recoveries) and they just upset the Steelers at Heinz Field for the second time this season. It also helps that Jacksonville coach Doug Marrone is familiar with these Patriots after his coaching stint with the Bills, earning a win and a 2-2 against the spread (ATS) mark in four encounters versus New England. A sound case can be made for a Jacksonville squad that allowed the fewest passing yards in the NFL this season while finishing second in both yards and points allowed. This seems like a lot of points for a team with such credentials. The sharp action (professional bettors) concur as it has countered the public by influencing the pointspread from an opener of New England -10 down to New England -9. Even though pro gamblers are taking the bait, we’re not prepared to follow suit. The AFC was a soft conference this year, sans the Patriots. Someone had to be the runner-up. Defeating mediocre Buffalo and a porous Pittsburgh defence was not the tallest of tasks. Concerns lay with the defensive stats compiled this year. The Jags were able to pad their numbers by playing in a weak AFC South and by earning victories against teams that were a combined 63-97 on the season. Jacksonville’s past four road games reveal that the Jags were not quite the defensive force that they appear to be. The Jaguars gave up 42 points last week, 44 to the Niners in their second-to-last game, 27 in a loss to the Blaine Gabbert-led Cardinals before holding the punchless Titans to 15 points in the season finale. Now they will head to Foxborough to take on the mighty Patriots, a team that ranked first in yardage and second in both points scored and passing yardage. Of course, everyone is aware of what QB Tom Brady and his offence is capable of. But let’s also not ignore New England’s defence as it has been a smothering unit in recent weeks, allowing a league-best 14 points per game since Week 5. The Patriots took control of last week’s game against the Titans, allowing this host to win and cover as a 13½ point favourite. While Jacksonville may deserve a bit more credit than Tennessee, we don’t see the justification for such a large drop off in the pointspread with a team that compares with the Titans. Is this based solely on Jacksonville racking up all those points against leaky Pittsburgh? What would this price have been after Jaguars beat Buffalo 10-3? Seems we are getting a rare chance to lay a short price with powerful Patriots. They are quietly on a 10-1 ATS run, they’ve won seven straight playoff games on this field and New England is 14-3 ATS in past 17 when facing a team with a winning record. Blake Bortles is going to come in and disrupt this? We hardly think so.
TAKING: PATRIOTS –9
Vikings (14-3) at Eagles (14-3)
LINE: MINNESOTA by 3
Some feel that this line is cheap simply because Atlanta was the same three-point choice in here and that Minnesota is a better team than the Falcons. If only it was that simple. Before we get to the physical aspect of this game, we can’t ignore the dangerous mental frame that the Vikes might find themselves in after their miraculous win last week over the Saints. The Vikings are also traveling from their indoor stadium to cold and loud Philadelphia, where the Eagles’ only loss this season came in a meaningless finale against the Cowboys. As for the matchup itself, we find two teams that mirror each other in several ways, not the least of which is at quarterback where two castoffs find themselves squaring off for the right to appear in Super Bowl 52. Minnesota’s Case Keenum is perceived as the better pivot here but, in reality, the difference is negligible. Both have limited playoff experience and both are game managers more than anything else. When pressured, we saw Keenum offer up a number of airballs in last week’s win. If Philly’s dangerous pass rush, led by a zoned in Fletcher Cox, can disrupt Keenum on this day, we could see more of the same. Most likely, this contest will come down to who can control the line of scrimmage and limit mistakes. While we respect Minnesota and acknowledge their solid play this season, we’re happy to take our chances with the host Eagles taking points. Philadelphia’s strong line play on both sides of the ball allows them to compete and win as they have. Asking the Vikes to come in here and win by four or more to earn the money is not an easy requirement. Offensively, Philadelphia presents an effective ground game as that unit was third best in the league this season. The Eagles aren’t prolific in the passing game, but backup QB Nick Foles does have reliable targets in tight end Zach Ertz and wideouts Nelson Agholor and Alshon Jeffery. Minnesota’s defence has been its calling card but Philadelphia is every bit as tough with a group that ranked first in the league versus the run and fourth best in total yards allowed. None of Philly’s past four visitors were able to exceed 10 points, including Atlanta’s proficient offence in last week’s 15-10 playoff win versus the Falcons. A team that was top-five in both points scored and fewest points allowed should not be a field goal home underdog in the Conference Final against a team that resembles them so closely. With two top defences opposing each other, it should come as no surprise that the total for this game is set at a relatively low 39 points. Points will come at a premium and in a game that can easily be decided by a field goal, accepting the points offered with host Philadelphia is the sensible way to go.
TAKING: EAGLES +3
Jaguars (12-6) at Patriots (14-3)
LINE: NEW ENGLAND by 9
The Jaguars own a top defence, they were second to Baltimore in takeaways this regular season with 33 (21 interceptions, 12 fumble recoveries) and they just upset the Steelers at Heinz Field for the second time this season. It also helps that Jacksonville coach Doug Marrone is familiar with these Patriots after his coaching stint with the Bills, earning a win and a 2-2 against the spread (ATS) mark in four encounters versus New England. A sound case can be made for a Jacksonville squad that allowed the fewest passing yards in the NFL this season while finishing second in both yards and points allowed. This seems like a lot of points for a team with such credentials. The sharp action (professional bettors) concur as it has countered the public by influencing the pointspread from an opener of New England -10 down to New England -9. Even though pro gamblers are taking the bait, we’re not prepared to follow suit. The AFC was a soft conference this year, sans the Patriots. Someone had to be the runner-up. Defeating mediocre Buffalo and a porous Pittsburgh defence was not the tallest of tasks. Concerns lay with the defensive stats compiled this year. The Jags were able to pad their numbers by playing in a weak AFC South and by earning victories against teams that were a combined 63-97 on the season. Jacksonville’s past four road games reveal that the Jags were not quite the defensive force that they appear to be. The Jaguars gave up 42 points last week, 44 to the Niners in their second-to-last game, 27 in a loss to the Blaine Gabbert-led Cardinals before holding the punchless Titans to 15 points in the season finale. Now they will head to Foxborough to take on the mighty Patriots, a team that ranked first in yardage and second in both points scored and passing yardage. Of course, everyone is aware of what QB Tom Brady and his offence is capable of. But let’s also not ignore New England’s defence as it has been a smothering unit in recent weeks, allowing a league-best 14 points per game since Week 5. The Patriots took control of last week’s game against the Titans, allowing this host to win and cover as a 13½ point favourite. While Jacksonville may deserve a bit more credit than Tennessee, we don’t see the justification for such a large drop off in the pointspread with a team that compares with the Titans. Is this based solely on Jacksonville racking up all those points against leaky Pittsburgh? What would this price have been after Jaguars beat Buffalo 10-3? Seems we are getting a rare chance to lay a short price with powerful Patriots. They are quietly on a 10-1 ATS run, they’ve won seven straight playoff games on this field and New England is 14-3 ATS in past 17 when facing a team with a winning record. Blake Bortles is going to come in and disrupt this? We hardly think so.
TAKING: PATRIOTS –9
Vikings (14-3) at Eagles (14-3)
LINE: MINNESOTA by 3
Some feel that this line is cheap simply because Atlanta was the same three-point choice in here and that Minnesota is a better team than the Falcons. If only it was that simple. Before we get to the physical aspect of this game, we can’t ignore the dangerous mental frame that the Vikes might find themselves in after their miraculous win last week over the Saints. The Vikings are also traveling from their indoor stadium to cold and loud Philadelphia, where the Eagles’ only loss this season came in a meaningless finale against the Cowboys. As for the matchup itself, we find two teams that mirror each other in several ways, not the least of which is at quarterback where two castoffs find themselves squaring off for the right to appear in Super Bowl 52. Minnesota’s Case Keenum is perceived as the better pivot here but, in reality, the difference is negligible. Both have limited playoff experience and both are game managers more than anything else. When pressured, we saw Keenum offer up a number of airballs in last week’s win. If Philly’s dangerous pass rush, led by a zoned in Fletcher Cox, can disrupt Keenum on this day, we could see more of the same. Most likely, this contest will come down to who can control the line of scrimmage and limit mistakes. While we respect Minnesota and acknowledge their solid play this season, we’re happy to take our chances with the host Eagles taking points. Philadelphia’s strong line play on both sides of the ball allows them to compete and win as they have. Asking the Vikes to come in here and win by four or more to earn the money is not an easy requirement. Offensively, Philadelphia presents an effective ground game as that unit was third best in the league this season. The Eagles aren’t prolific in the passing game, but backup QB Nick Foles does have reliable targets in tight end Zach Ertz and wideouts Nelson Agholor and Alshon Jeffery. Minnesota’s defence has been its calling card but Philadelphia is every bit as tough with a group that ranked first in the league versus the run and fourth best in total yards allowed. None of Philly’s past four visitors were able to exceed 10 points, including Atlanta’s proficient offence in last week’s 15-10 playoff win versus the Falcons. A team that was top-five in both points scored and fewest points allowed should not be a field goal home underdog in the Conference Final against a team that resembles them so closely. With two top defences opposing each other, it should come as no surprise that the total for this game is set at a relatively low 39 points. Points will come at a premium and in a game that can easily be decided by a field goal, accepting the points offered with host Philadelphia is the sensible way to go.
TAKING: EAGLES +3
