jackwinningham
After what was a great week, yesterday was what inevitably comes in gambling – some losing. Let’s be clear – I’m NOT going to LIE to you like so many others. If we can consistently win at a 57-58% clip – that’s about the ceiling. I don’t care what others tell you. NOBODY calls games at some extraordinary rate. If you want to believe them – go ahead. I can’t stop you. Sure – we’re gonna have hot streaks, and cold streaks. You can follow or fade – but I WON’T lie to you. I’ll leave that to the salespeople, but I’m a handicapper. I’m a gambler. So since I was cold yesterday, I’m cutting back. Many people will bet more games, and bet bigger amounts. They figure “My luck’s gotta change”. THAT my friends is how you BURY yourself. DON’T do it. When you are cold – CUT BACK the number of plays, and CUT BACK the amount you bet. That is, if you want to walk away with an intact bankroll. Okay – enough lecturing. I don’t have the time to go into theory, discipline, and money management. I’ll save that for my book. Let’s get onto today’s plays.
First – I know everyone is chomping for NFL plays. But the BEST play on the board is still to go AGAINST the Tigers. Yes – I know the appeal of a Detroit Tigers vs Baltimore Orioles game is pretty low today – but we are playing to WIN – not have an enjoyable TV experience. If you want that – turn to an HBO movie, where the outcome is already written. Here – we want to win. The Tigers have not won since July – and that was against the Angels and one of the worst managers I’ve ever seen, Brad Ausmus. The fact is the Orioles can simply outgun the Tigers. Sure – the Tigers won last night – but for them to score runs they almost always have to string together 4-5 hits – as they are the WORST in MLB at hitting HR’s. Baltimore can still pop the ball out of the park. And in a matchup of teams with bad pitching – I’ll take the team that has the most power every time – and today that’s the Orioles. Add to that the Tigers are sending Edwin Jackson to the mound – and it’s a good play. There’s a reason the Orioles are favorites on the road for one of the first times in a LONG time – and we’re hopping on Baltimore at -132. Several casinos have that line – the one I’ll list is 5Dimes.
For the NFL, personally, this is not a great week to go crazy. Combined with the fact I’m a bit cold after yesterday, I’m limiting myself to a small play on a Time Zone Triple 10 Point Teaser. This play is using odds from BETONLINE.ag
1PM New England dipped to -8 (from -18)
1PM Jacksonville/Houston dipped to UNDER 53 (from under 43)
4PM Oakland dipped to +17 (from +7)
Today, the best two of the three are the early games. IF they both come in – HEDGE ON KANSAS CITY at 4PM. Either make a straight play of KC -7, or open up another Teasers – either a two teamer at KC -6 or another 3 teamer a KC +3. Me? I’ll be laying the straight hedge and hope for either a middle, or take the 50% return on my original Teaser on the hedge. Again – MINIMIZE your losses. ESPECIALLY when you are cold.
Best of luck today!
Jack
After what was a great week, yesterday was what inevitably comes in gambling – some losing. Let’s be clear – I’m NOT going to LIE to you like so many others. If we can consistently win at a 57-58% clip – that’s about the ceiling. I don’t care what others tell you. NOBODY calls games at some extraordinary rate. If you want to believe them – go ahead. I can’t stop you. Sure – we’re gonna have hot streaks, and cold streaks. You can follow or fade – but I WON’T lie to you. I’ll leave that to the salespeople, but I’m a handicapper. I’m a gambler. So since I was cold yesterday, I’m cutting back. Many people will bet more games, and bet bigger amounts. They figure “My luck’s gotta change”. THAT my friends is how you BURY yourself. DON’T do it. When you are cold – CUT BACK the number of plays, and CUT BACK the amount you bet. That is, if you want to walk away with an intact bankroll. Okay – enough lecturing. I don’t have the time to go into theory, discipline, and money management. I’ll save that for my book. Let’s get onto today’s plays.
First – I know everyone is chomping for NFL plays. But the BEST play on the board is still to go AGAINST the Tigers. Yes – I know the appeal of a Detroit Tigers vs Baltimore Orioles game is pretty low today – but we are playing to WIN – not have an enjoyable TV experience. If you want that – turn to an HBO movie, where the outcome is already written. Here – we want to win. The Tigers have not won since July – and that was against the Angels and one of the worst managers I’ve ever seen, Brad Ausmus. The fact is the Orioles can simply outgun the Tigers. Sure – the Tigers won last night – but for them to score runs they almost always have to string together 4-5 hits – as they are the WORST in MLB at hitting HR’s. Baltimore can still pop the ball out of the park. And in a matchup of teams with bad pitching – I’ll take the team that has the most power every time – and today that’s the Orioles. Add to that the Tigers are sending Edwin Jackson to the mound – and it’s a good play. There’s a reason the Orioles are favorites on the road for one of the first times in a LONG time – and we’re hopping on Baltimore at -132. Several casinos have that line – the one I’ll list is 5Dimes.
For the NFL, personally, this is not a great week to go crazy. Combined with the fact I’m a bit cold after yesterday, I’m limiting myself to a small play on a Time Zone Triple 10 Point Teaser. This play is using odds from BETONLINE.ag
1PM New England dipped to -8 (from -18)
1PM Jacksonville/Houston dipped to UNDER 53 (from under 43)
4PM Oakland dipped to +17 (from +7)
Today, the best two of the three are the early games. IF they both come in – HEDGE ON KANSAS CITY at 4PM. Either make a straight play of KC -7, or open up another Teasers – either a two teamer at KC -6 or another 3 teamer a KC +3. Me? I’ll be laying the straight hedge and hope for either a middle, or take the 50% return on my original Teaser on the hedge. Again – MINIMIZE your losses. ESPECIALLY when you are cold.
Best of luck today!
Jack
The Biz off Twitter. He was 7-3-1 last week. Uses statistics and history of previous years situations. I will post last year's record when I can, but he was over 60%.
BIZ NFL 2019, Week 2
GB-Minn Under 21 1[SUP]st[/SUP] Half
Miami +19
Wash +6
Det +2
Cinci -1
Cinci Over 46 BEST BET
Balt Under 46
Seattle +4 (Close to a Best Bet)
Rams -120 ML
Rams Saints Under 52
Atl +2
BIZ NFL 2019, Week 2
GB-Minn Under 21 1[SUP]st[/SUP] Half
Miami +19
Wash +6
Det +2
Cinci -1
Cinci Over 46 BEST BET
Balt Under 46
Seattle +4 (Close to a Best Bet)
Rams -120 ML
Rams Saints Under 52
Atl +2
Midwest NFL Handicapping
Detroit -3***
Cleveland -2.5
Denver +2
Oak +9.5
Indy +3.5
Cinci -1.5
LAR -2.5
Minnesota +2.5
Buffalo -1.5
Arizona +13.5
Teasers
HOU -3.5/SF +7.5 Teaser
NO +8.5/MINN +8.5
INDY +9.5/DET +7
JAX +13/PITT +3.
KC -.5/DAL -.5
DEN +8/DEN-CHI UNDER 46.5
Over/Under
PITT/SEA OVER 47.5
Winning week #2 in a row.
13-5 last week.
181-94-13 in 2018.
Detroit -3***
Cleveland -2.5
Denver +2
Oak +9.5
Indy +3.5
Cinci -1.5
LAR -2.5
Minnesota +2.5
Buffalo -1.5
Arizona +13.5
Teasers
HOU -3.5/SF +7.5 Teaser
NO +8.5/MINN +8.5
INDY +9.5/DET +7
JAX +13/PITT +3.
KC -.5/DAL -.5
DEN +8/DEN-CHI UNDER 46.5
Over/Under
PITT/SEA OVER 47.5
Winning week #2 in a row.
13-5 last week.
181-94-13 in 2018.
