Sunday Service Play Thread 8/18/2019

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Let's go Brandon!
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KING CREOLE


3*
Minnesota / Seattle under 41.5
 

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GOODFELLA

3*
Pittsburgh / Chicago Cubs under 10
 

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VegasHustler

Orioles +260
 

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H&H Sports

MLB
5* Texas Rangers -135
4* Cubs/Pirates Under 10
3* Giants -105
3* Mets/Royals Under 10

XNFL
4* Seattle Seahawks +3.5 (-120)
3* Saints/Chargers Under 43 (-120)
 

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PORT PORT SPORTS (MLB) - Minnesota Twins +130
 

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Tony Mejia (MLB)

LA Angels -1.5 runs (+110)

The Angels rallied to post a 6-5 win behind a four-run seventh and are in position to pick up their first series victory since mid-July by taking a third game in four days from the visiting White Sox. Opponents are batting just .230 against rookie Griffin Canning in Anaheim. Look for a lopsided result and ride L.A on the run line

Giants -102

Madison Bumgarner has surrendered just three hits over his last two starts, giving up a single run on a homer in his last 14 innings at home. The Giants have won nine of the last 10 times he’s taken the mound and he’s beaten the Snakes both times he’s seen them, holding hitters to a .191 average while striking out 15 over 13.1 innings. Look for San Francisco to pick up its seventh win in eight tries, wrapping up a four-game sweep in Phoenix.
 

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Consensus Picks

Saints -2 -110 (10-2)

Vikings -3 -110 (6-1)
 

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Lv wolf
over 10.5 san d
under 5 1st 5 Stl
 

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Robin Hood Selection:

Information – Texas -135
 

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Matt Blunt (VegasInsider XNFL) - Best Bet Seattle Seahawks +3.5

A pair of NFC teams coming off SU and ATS wins in Week 1 of the preseason meet in Minnesota on Sunday night, as it's a high-profile, under the lights preseason contest for the Seahawks and Vikings.

Minnesota's 34-25 win last week was arguably the more impressive of the two, as they managed to put up 35 points against the Saints in New Orleans. Strong performances by QB's Sean Mannion and Kyle Sloter were a big reason for that result, as both guys managed to throw a TD pass and were a combined 13-for-20 throwing the ball. Kirk Cousins did his thing as well in one drive going 4-for-4 for 65 yards and a TD, and he'll likely cut into a bit of the playing time for Mannion and Sloter in this one.

From Seattle's perspective, their 22-14 win at home was fueled by a strong all around effort from QB Paxton Lynch. Lynch went 11-for-15 throwing the ball for 109 yards and a TD, but it was his four rushes that totalled 38 yards and a TD that helped Seattle grab the lead in the 3rd quarter for good. Lynch is a guy that's looking to revitalize his career after his failed stint in Denver as a 1st round pick, and based off one performance, his dual-threat ability is something that Seattle covets.

Doing it at home is one thing though, as can Lynch and company get it done on the road in prime time?

As is the case with NFL preseason lines every week, there is significant line movement early on in the week and this game is no different. Bettors have already shown their hand in terms of backing the Vikings and the 'under', given that this line originally opened up at Minnesota -3.5 and a total of 42.

An average of 28 points put up between them on offense last week makes the 'under' look a little puzzling to some, especially given the QB battles both teams seemingly have going on for that backup role. But without question both sides would like to tighten things up defensively – especially in Minnesota's case, and I do suspect that's what we see to a degree form both sides in this one.

Seattle and Minnesota also have a recent history of preseason games finishing with 41 or fewer points, as they've met in August each of the past three years, and last year's 21-20 Minnesota win was the highest point total of the three. It was also the only one played in Week 3 of the preseason – typically the dress rehearsal game for starters – as the previous two years they met in Week 2 as they are this season, and those games finished with 33 and 29 points respectively.

So the 'under definitely makes a lot of sense here, and typically you'd better have a few good reasons to go against line moves in general during the preseason, and outside of last week's offensive performance by both sides, there really isn't a lot to suggest otherwise this week. Given that Seattle's 2nd preseason game has cashed 'under' tickets in each of the past four years, it would be that side of the total where I believe you can only look.

However, it's actually the side that may present a slightly better betting opportunity as there is at least one strong enough reason to go against the line move that's gone Minnesota's way already.

Going back to the start of the 2011 NFL season – essentially a year before the Russell Wilson era started there – the Seahawks have not minded travelling for preseason games at all. In road games outside of the Pacific Time zone (PST), Seattle has gone 7-1 ATS overall, and 5-0 ATS when lined as an underdog. That's an ATS run that has significant weight to stand on for this game, especially when you consider that QB Geno Smith will be looking to up his performance after what he saw from Lynch a week ago.

And for as much as Minnesota would like to see improvement on defense, it may be hard to completely flip that around in just a week. Mike Zimmer's defense have also been built around getting pressure and being physical, and those are two things that can be very limited in August action. At the same time, Mannion and Sloter are two guys I wouldn't count on lighting up the stat sheet again, which makes it very tough to back Minnesota at anything over a FG in this case.
 

Underdog
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Been following Dr. UpChuck for some time. He at least has an honest website, but not all his plays get posted on any of the forums consistently. He is .500 at best. 0-3 start today. Looks like he releases "chase" plays late in the event he lays an egg on his early picks. He has good runs (like 8-1) then goes on a losing streak to give it all back. Like 99% of the Services and Touts who are posted here, he is .500 or worse. This EV+ group may be the best at bases from what I have tried to follow. Anyone else tracking a successful Service?


  • Game: (957) Milwaukee Brewers at (958) Washington Nationals
    Date/Time: Aug 18 2019 1:35 PM EDT
    Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
    Play Rating: 3%
    Play: 1H Milwaukee Brewers -109


    Anderson v. Fedde
  • Game: (979) New York Mets at (980) Kansas City Royals
    Date/Time: Aug 18 2019 2:15 PM EDT
    Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
    Play Rating: 4%
    Play: 1H New York Mets -0.5 (-119)

    Wheeler v. Sparkman
 

Underdog
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DR. CHUCK




  • Game: (977) Houston Astros at (978) Oakland Athletics
    Date/Time: Aug 18 2019 4:07 PM EDT
    Betting Line Provider: Westgate
    Play Rating: 4%
    Play: Total Over 9.5 (+100)

    View Analysis

    Greinke v. Anderson
  • Game: (961) San Francisco Giants at (962) Arizona Diamondbacks
    Date/Time: Aug 18 2019 4:10 PM EDT
    Betting Line Provider: Westgate
    Play Rating: 3%
    Play: 1H San Francisco Giants -111

    View Analysis

    MadBum v. Kelly


Make that 0-4. 0-5 if Astros and A's can't score 10 runs.
 

Underdog
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Look at this hot mess today. All losing picks with exceptional emphasis by these touts (respective losers if Giants and Rangers don't rally):

STEPHEN NOVER
3*TOM

Kansas City / NewYork Mets under 10

Matt Rivers
Blank Check MaxWager MISMATCH OF THE YEAR

San FranciscoGiants. Money line
Bet this play foryour money management as a max play pending your bankroll!

Bobby Valentino
60 dime
Mets UNDER 10 RUNS


Tony Weston
100 dime MLBBlowout of the Year
Blue Jays Runline


Bezobets
4* Rangers ML -135


S.I.G
New York Yankees(+107)

Cleveland Indians @New York Yankees
OVER 9.5 (-135)

VegasHustler
Orioles +260


Robin Hood Selection:
Information – Texas-135
 

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Add the saints -2.5.
Add Green Bay Monster last 8 picks.
Lost my ass again this week.
Oh, and Fezzik GOY over NE. LOSER.
AND THEY KEEP BEING POSTED AND WE KEEP LOSING.
I’m done. I’ll wait till College football kicks into full gear.
 

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Add the saints -2.5.
Add Green Bay Monster last 8 picks.
Lost my ass again this week.
Oh, and Fezzik GOY over NE. LOSER.
AND THEY KEEP BEING POSTED AND WE KEEP LOSING.
I’m done. I’ll wait till College football kicks into full gear.

i give you a pro tip. Bet against them!!!! Special if they write up GOY,POW,POM,GOM..... just bet against them. In the longrun you always win!
 

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Look at the odds most of them are playing. Many many times -150 and higher. Even if they have 55-60% winning picks. They are still down. So if you bet opposite you can’t lose.
 

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Well, yes, if I’ve lost 5K following I most definitely would be up 5K if I bet against them! I came here to get picks by “experts”. Little did I know they know nothing more than I do. I’m could throw darts at a dart board and have better success than all these so called experts that don’t know shit. Seriously. They all suck. Nover. All of them. You know if I started betting against them tomorrow they will go on a 20-0 hot streak. Isn’t that how it always seems to go? One MLB game tonite and one NFL game tonite. Would sure like a winner to get something back. Anyone have a side or total winner in MLB or NFL lol?
 

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That’s not true. Is always better to bet against this wannabe experts then cap your own games. Like todayfor example: so many experts are on Texas. Like 6-8 experts. If is like this bet opposite. Many have also Mets under today. Bet opposite. Many experts picks are San Fran. Bet opposite. I can tell most of them don’t really research. They just wait for someone bringing out the picks first and they just follow it. I really like +ev picks,basewinner.
but i always wait. If many of the other service has the same picks. I will skip. Or bet opposite. Basewinner picks today for example: LA Angels. No other has Angels. Good bet.same with Cleveland and Houston. But Mets under or Texas or Pittsburgh. To many other service has the same play so I skip it.
 

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To be clear - Green Bay Monster sports 6-4 last 10 picks so don’t group them into your rant and NO -150 or higher plays .. just saying
 

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