HITMAN | NFL Side - Sunday, Sep 27 2020 8:20PM
488 NOS -3.0(-110) Southpoint vs 487 GBP double-dime bet
488 NOS -3.0(-110) Southpoint vs 487 GBP double-dime bet
FEZZIK | NFL SIDE SUN, 09/27/20 - 1:00 PM
468 NYG 3.5 (-110) William Hill vs 467 SFX
triple-dime bet
Analysis:
FEZ BEST BET:
Sf/NYG+3.5 Like NYG +3.5
SF: Crippled team: Market has not reacted enough
Lookahead line was NYG +6.5
Downgrade at QB, Jimmy G to Nick Mullens 4 points
DLINE Injuries: Bosa , Soloman Thoman OUT for year Dee Ford OUT
RB Injuries: Mostert, Coleman OUT
Receiver Injuries: Samuel OUT, Kittle OUT
Also: C Richburg is out, CB Richard Sherman OUT
AND SF has to play on the same stadium TURF that they played last week
49ers have been vocal saying Turf is “sticky” and contributed to injuries………..I think this will be big distraction.
Like NYG +3.5
WEEK 2 NOTES
New Coaches went 1-4 ATS
NOW: 2-8 ATS
Dal- McCarthy Clev- Stefanski
Car- Rhule Wash- Rivera
NYG Judge: ONLY ATS WINNER
OVERS go 12-4
Defenses DO look compromised/struggling to tackle:
Teams embracing Offensive Aggression More:
GB goes for it 4th and 4 from Det 45 1st drive
Az, Buf, with leads don’t run out clocks
Both winging the ball deep……
NFL:
Raiders /NE -6
LIKE PATS:
Raiders: Really Bad Spot
Huge 1st game MNF win at Allegiant Stadium.
Now have to wheel back flying across country, short week,
with an early start time
2nd East Coast Trip for Team in 3 weeks……
Went to Carolina Week 1
Raiders OLINE issues:
G Incognito, T Sam Young, T Trent Brown
Cam: Rated higher than Brady Now
Cam my No 16 QB, Brady 20
Given this we get a far superior NE team in a good spot…
Rams/BILLS -2.5
LIKE BILLS
Rams: Worst Travel Spot of any Team all year:
Rams had planned to stay East, but with Covid reconsidered
Flew to Philly last week
Flew back to LA
Now fly to Buffalo
Bills: Josh Allen, has been masterful YTD
No.4 QB in QBR………was 24 the last two years before
Is No 16 in accuracy, after being bottom 5 last 2 years
And has 3 legit WRS
Diggs/Brown/Beasley all averaging over 60/game
Hou PIT-4
Lean Pit
Hou: Needs there top 2 WRs to be heathy:
Game 1: Cooks ineffective vs. KC only 2 catches
Game 2: Fuller not right, often out of game, was not targeted
Just a lean:
Hou at 0-2 desperate vs. a 2-0 Pit team
Sf/NYG+4 Like NYG
PASS: JIMMY G STATUS? Healthy Jimmy G worth 3.5 points vs. Mullens
SF: Crippled team:
DLINE Injuries: Bosa , Soloman Thoman OUT for year Dee Ford OUT
RB Injuries: Mostert, Coleman OUT
Receiver Injuries: Samuel OUT, Kittle?
Also: C Richburg is out, CB Richard Sherman OUT
Note: SF staying East…..they were VERY successful last year doing this going 2-0 ATS (@Cin, @Balt) last year
Ten -2.5/Min PASS
Min was dominated on line of scrimmage last week
D is clearly missing all the departures
And O was totally out of sync without their Center Elflein
But Titans actually got outplayed by Jax
Titans only won due to +2 t/o
JAx won yardage 480-354
Jax 6.5 ypplay, Ten 6.0
And Henry looks a step slow this year:
2020: 3.6 y/rush, 5.1 LY, 4.9 2018
Wash/Clev
LIKE CLEV
Wash: Overrated: Based on that 2nd half vs. Philly OLine missing 4 players
Haskins: My worst rated NFL QBR 28, worst in NFL
Worst rated accuracy in NFL: -10.6 comp percentage
He is 56 % should be 67%
Clev: Good spot, 10 days to prep for game
Clev: Underrated based on noncover vs. Cin
Clev dominated the stats, but Cin went 5/5 on 4th downs
YPPLAY: Cin 4.0, CLEV 7.5
How did Cin score 30 at only 4.0 y/play?
5/5 on 4th down conversions…….
Enabled them to get 2 4th quarter TDs
Mayfield: Bad interception up 12 in the 4Q……..
Clev was running right through Cin…..
35 Rushes/215 yards, 6.1 yards/rush
Chic/ATL -3 tiny Lean Chicago
Atl D: Clearly has taken a huge step back
Giving up 6.9/playÂ, worst in NFL
Dallas Oline was down 3 guys last week, Still torched them
Atl: What is their mind set?
99.9% to win game vs. Dallas
How will team respond?
Chicago: Does not Trust Trusbisky
Bears lead 17-0 vs. Giants, then were ultra conservative
Jets/COLTS pass
Jets: Worst team in NFL.
Jets got crushed DESPITE playing THE team in the NFL most decimated by injuries, the 49ers.
Jets have Bad WRs, and NONE are healthy:
Hogan (Ribs), Perriman(Ankle), Crowder (Hamstring) all ?
Jets have the worst No1 RB in the NFL
Gore: 27/87, 3.2 Avg
Colts: Jonathon Taylor answered the questions last week:
RB Marlon Mack out for year
Taylor 26/101 and looked solid last week
Taylor: Good bet for Rookie of Year 7-1
Car/Chargers-6.5
Pass
Car: Was impressive in 14 point loss to Tbay
Actually won yards by 100
Was -2 in t/o
Chargers: outplayed KC
Chargers won the stats
Herbert played very well vs. KC
Det/Az LIKE: Det 1st half, Az 2nd half
DERIVATIVE BETS OF WEEK
Det: A team to fade in the 2nd half?
2020: 1st half +2/gm, 2nd half -15
2019: 1st half +-.5/gm, 2nd half -4.6
2018: 1st half +.2/gm, 2nd half -2.5
Note: Az LY, was -3.1 1h, -1.9 2h
2019 Game:
Det lead 17-3 at half, ended 27-27
And Az is reinventing end game strategy:
Up 12, 6 min to play, they threw the ball 4 of 5 times
I have never seen an NFL team do that up more than 1 score …
Tb/DEN +6 Lean DENVER
Brady: Struggling
2 bad interceptions vs. N Orleans (and N Orleans D did not look good vs. Raiders)
Brady: No 30 in NFL in QBR YTD
Tbay: Lucky cover vs. Carolina
Won 31-17
Tb +2 in T/os
Carolina won yards by just under 100 yards
TB got cover with a 46 yard TD run with under 2 min to play
Dal/SEA-5 LIKE DALLAS
Dal: UNDERRATED?
Was in a close gm vs. Atl despite
-3 T/os
2 failed Fake Punts
So essentially minus 5 in turnovers……..
Given that even a close loss is impressive
Dallas loss to Rams looks more excusable
After Rams crushed Philly in Philly
Gb/N Orl -3 strong lean NORL
PASS:
Drew Brees playing below his normal level:
No 17 in QBR
Next gen Stats:
Brees: 3rd most inaccurate passer, -8.4 vs. expected (65% vs. 73% expected)
Brees: 2nd fewest air yards/completion (3.6)
HOWEVER: N Orl always starts slow, 2-12 ATS, 3-11 Su
So let’s not overreact
Rodgers: Motivated
Has played 2 great games, and is No1 in NFL in QBR!
Pick Made: Sep 25 2020 11:48AM PST
468 NYG 3.5 (-110) William Hill vs 467 SFX
triple-dime bet
Analysis:
FEZ BEST BET:
Sf/NYG+3.5 Like NYG +3.5
SF: Crippled team: Market has not reacted enough
Lookahead line was NYG +6.5
Downgrade at QB, Jimmy G to Nick Mullens 4 points
DLINE Injuries: Bosa , Soloman Thoman OUT for year Dee Ford OUT
RB Injuries: Mostert, Coleman OUT
Receiver Injuries: Samuel OUT, Kittle OUT
Also: C Richburg is out, CB Richard Sherman OUT
AND SF has to play on the same stadium TURF that they played last week
49ers have been vocal saying Turf is “sticky” and contributed to injuries………..I think this will be big distraction.
Like NYG +3.5
WEEK 2 NOTES
New Coaches went 1-4 ATS
NOW: 2-8 ATS
Dal- McCarthy Clev- Stefanski
Car- Rhule Wash- Rivera
NYG Judge: ONLY ATS WINNER
OVERS go 12-4
Defenses DO look compromised/struggling to tackle:
Teams embracing Offensive Aggression More:
GB goes for it 4th and 4 from Det 45 1st drive
Az, Buf, with leads don’t run out clocks
Both winging the ball deep……
NFL:
Raiders /NE -6
LIKE PATS:
Raiders: Really Bad Spot
Huge 1st game MNF win at Allegiant Stadium.
Now have to wheel back flying across country, short week,
with an early start time
2nd East Coast Trip for Team in 3 weeks……
Went to Carolina Week 1
Raiders OLINE issues:
G Incognito, T Sam Young, T Trent Brown
Cam: Rated higher than Brady Now
Cam my No 16 QB, Brady 20
Given this we get a far superior NE team in a good spot…
Rams/BILLS -2.5
LIKE BILLS
Rams: Worst Travel Spot of any Team all year:
Rams had planned to stay East, but with Covid reconsidered
Flew to Philly last week
Flew back to LA
Now fly to Buffalo
Bills: Josh Allen, has been masterful YTD
No.4 QB in QBR………was 24 the last two years before
Is No 16 in accuracy, after being bottom 5 last 2 years
And has 3 legit WRS
Diggs/Brown/Beasley all averaging over 60/game
Hou PIT-4
Lean Pit
Hou: Needs there top 2 WRs to be heathy:
Game 1: Cooks ineffective vs. KC only 2 catches
Game 2: Fuller not right, often out of game, was not targeted
Just a lean:
Hou at 0-2 desperate vs. a 2-0 Pit team
Sf/NYG+4 Like NYG
PASS: JIMMY G STATUS? Healthy Jimmy G worth 3.5 points vs. Mullens
SF: Crippled team:
DLINE Injuries: Bosa , Soloman Thoman OUT for year Dee Ford OUT
RB Injuries: Mostert, Coleman OUT
Receiver Injuries: Samuel OUT, Kittle?
Also: C Richburg is out, CB Richard Sherman OUT
Note: SF staying East…..they were VERY successful last year doing this going 2-0 ATS (@Cin, @Balt) last year
Ten -2.5/Min PASS
Min was dominated on line of scrimmage last week
D is clearly missing all the departures
And O was totally out of sync without their Center Elflein
But Titans actually got outplayed by Jax
Titans only won due to +2 t/o
JAx won yardage 480-354
Jax 6.5 ypplay, Ten 6.0
And Henry looks a step slow this year:
2020: 3.6 y/rush, 5.1 LY, 4.9 2018
Wash/Clev
LIKE CLEV
Wash: Overrated: Based on that 2nd half vs. Philly OLine missing 4 players
Haskins: My worst rated NFL QBR 28, worst in NFL
Worst rated accuracy in NFL: -10.6 comp percentage
He is 56 % should be 67%
Clev: Good spot, 10 days to prep for game
Clev: Underrated based on noncover vs. Cin
Clev dominated the stats, but Cin went 5/5 on 4th downs
YPPLAY: Cin 4.0, CLEV 7.5
How did Cin score 30 at only 4.0 y/play?
5/5 on 4th down conversions…….
Enabled them to get 2 4th quarter TDs
Mayfield: Bad interception up 12 in the 4Q……..
Clev was running right through Cin…..
35 Rushes/215 yards, 6.1 yards/rush
Chic/ATL -3 tiny Lean Chicago
Atl D: Clearly has taken a huge step back
Giving up 6.9/playÂ, worst in NFL
Dallas Oline was down 3 guys last week, Still torched them
Atl: What is their mind set?
99.9% to win game vs. Dallas
How will team respond?
Chicago: Does not Trust Trusbisky
Bears lead 17-0 vs. Giants, then were ultra conservative
Jets/COLTS pass
Jets: Worst team in NFL.
Jets got crushed DESPITE playing THE team in the NFL most decimated by injuries, the 49ers.
Jets have Bad WRs, and NONE are healthy:
Hogan (Ribs), Perriman(Ankle), Crowder (Hamstring) all ?
Jets have the worst No1 RB in the NFL
Gore: 27/87, 3.2 Avg
Colts: Jonathon Taylor answered the questions last week:
RB Marlon Mack out for year
Taylor 26/101 and looked solid last week
Taylor: Good bet for Rookie of Year 7-1
Car/Chargers-6.5
Pass
Car: Was impressive in 14 point loss to Tbay
Actually won yards by 100
Was -2 in t/o
Chargers: outplayed KC
Chargers won the stats
Herbert played very well vs. KC
Det/Az LIKE: Det 1st half, Az 2nd half
DERIVATIVE BETS OF WEEK
Det: A team to fade in the 2nd half?
2020: 1st half +2/gm, 2nd half -15
2019: 1st half +-.5/gm, 2nd half -4.6
2018: 1st half +.2/gm, 2nd half -2.5
Note: Az LY, was -3.1 1h, -1.9 2h
2019 Game:
Det lead 17-3 at half, ended 27-27
And Az is reinventing end game strategy:
Up 12, 6 min to play, they threw the ball 4 of 5 times
I have never seen an NFL team do that up more than 1 score …
Tb/DEN +6 Lean DENVER
Brady: Struggling
2 bad interceptions vs. N Orleans (and N Orleans D did not look good vs. Raiders)
Brady: No 30 in NFL in QBR YTD
Tbay: Lucky cover vs. Carolina
Won 31-17
Tb +2 in T/os
Carolina won yards by just under 100 yards
TB got cover with a 46 yard TD run with under 2 min to play
Dal/SEA-5 LIKE DALLAS
Dal: UNDERRATED?
Was in a close gm vs. Atl despite
-3 T/os
2 failed Fake Punts
So essentially minus 5 in turnovers……..
Given that even a close loss is impressive
Dallas loss to Rams looks more excusable
After Rams crushed Philly in Philly
Gb/N Orl -3 strong lean NORL
PASS:
Drew Brees playing below his normal level:
No 17 in QBR
Next gen Stats:
Brees: 3rd most inaccurate passer, -8.4 vs. expected (65% vs. 73% expected)
Brees: 2nd fewest air yards/completion (3.6)
HOWEVER: N Orl always starts slow, 2-12 ATS, 3-11 Su
So let’s not overreact
Rodgers: Motivated
Has played 2 great games, and is No1 in NFL in QBR!
Pick Made: Sep 25 2020 11:48AM PST
Vince Akins (VegasInsider Gridiron Angle Plays)
Record 9-4 after the first 2 NFL Weeks
NFL
Cincinnati Bengals +4.5
Denver Broncos +6.5
Los Angeles Chargers -6.5
New York Jets +12.5
Dallas Cowboys/Seattle Seahawks Over 56.5
Las Vegas Raiders/New England Patriots Under 47.5
Green Bay Packers/New Orleans Saints Over 53
Record 9-4 after the first 2 NFL Weeks
NFL
Cincinnati Bengals +4.5
Denver Broncos +6.5
Los Angeles Chargers -6.5
New York Jets +12.5
Dallas Cowboys/Seattle Seahawks Over 56.5
Las Vegas Raiders/New England Patriots Under 47.5
Green Bay Packers/New Orleans Saints Over 53
