NFL Sharp Action
1 p.m. ET: Washington Football Team at Buffalo Bills
After losing their season openers, both of these non-conference opponents rebounded with big Week 2 victories. Washington (1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS) snuck by the Giants 30-29 on Thursday Night Football, although they failed to cover as 4-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Bills (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) crushed the Dolphins 35-0, easily covering as 3.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Buffalo listed as a 9.5-point home favorite. The public isn't scared off by the big number and is rushing to the window to lay the points with the high-flying Bills. However, despite this lopsided action we've seen Buffalo fall from -9.5 to -7. This signals some steady sharp reverse line movement on the road dog Football Team plus the points. Dogs with a line move in their favor are 67-45 ATS (59 percent) since last season. Dogs who failed to cover in their first two games have gone 52-32 ATS (62 percent) over the past decade. Washington also enjoys a rest advantage, having last played on Thursday while the Bills played on Sunday. Wiseguys are leaning under here, as the total has fallen from 46.5 to 45.5. The forecast calls for 10-15 MPH winds at New Era Stadium. Tony Corrente, the lead ref, is 58% to the under historically.
1 p.m. ET: Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants
Both of these non-division teams are 0-2 and looking for their first win. The Falcons (0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS) just got destroyed by the Bucs 48-25, failing to cover as 13-point road dogs. Atlanta has now been outscored 80-31 through two games. On the other hand, the Giants (0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS) battled hard on Thursday night but lost to Washington 30-29, although New York did manage to cover as 4-point road dogs. This line opened with the Giants listed as a 3-point home favorite. The public is undecided and doesn't know which bad team to back. However, we've seen the Falcons 3 get juiced up to -120 and some shops have even fallen to 2.5. This indicates respected monrey backing Atlanta. Over the past decade, when two teams who are 0-2 face off in Week 3, the dog is 10-6 ATS (63 percent). Also, teams off a 20-point or more blowout loss (like Atlanta) are roughly 54 percent ATS the following game over the past decade. Short road dogs 6 or less are 9-1 ATS through two weeks this season.
4:25 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Los Angeles Rams
This possible NFC Championship game showdown will be by far the most popular and heavily bet game of the week. The Bucs (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) are coming off an impressive 48-25 shellacking of the Falcons, easily covering as 13-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Rams (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) edged the Colts 27-24 in Week 2, although they failed to cover as 4-point road favorites. This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a 1.5-point home favorite. Wiseguys have pounced on Tom Brady and the Bucs as a short dog, steaming Tampa Bay from 1.5 to -1.5. Tampa Bay matches the classic "dog to favorite" line move system that pros have leaned on for years. If you're late to the party, the Bucs may be more appealing as a moneyline play (-120) instead of laying the small points. We could also be looking at a higher scoring game here. The total opened at a super-high 54 and has been bet up to 55.5. Both teams are 2-0 to the over this season.
More Sunday Line Moves
Cardinals -7 to -7.5 at Jaguars
Ravens-Lions Over 49 to 50.5
Dolphins 4.5 to 3.5 at Raiders
Seahawks-Vikings Under 56 to 54.5
Packers-49ers Over 48 to 50.5
1 p.m. ET: Washington Football Team at Buffalo Bills
After losing their season openers, both of these non-conference opponents rebounded with big Week 2 victories. Washington (1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS) snuck by the Giants 30-29 on Thursday Night Football, although they failed to cover as 4-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Bills (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) crushed the Dolphins 35-0, easily covering as 3.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Buffalo listed as a 9.5-point home favorite. The public isn't scared off by the big number and is rushing to the window to lay the points with the high-flying Bills. However, despite this lopsided action we've seen Buffalo fall from -9.5 to -7. This signals some steady sharp reverse line movement on the road dog Football Team plus the points. Dogs with a line move in their favor are 67-45 ATS (59 percent) since last season. Dogs who failed to cover in their first two games have gone 52-32 ATS (62 percent) over the past decade. Washington also enjoys a rest advantage, having last played on Thursday while the Bills played on Sunday. Wiseguys are leaning under here, as the total has fallen from 46.5 to 45.5. The forecast calls for 10-15 MPH winds at New Era Stadium. Tony Corrente, the lead ref, is 58% to the under historically.
1 p.m. ET: Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants
Both of these non-division teams are 0-2 and looking for their first win. The Falcons (0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS) just got destroyed by the Bucs 48-25, failing to cover as 13-point road dogs. Atlanta has now been outscored 80-31 through two games. On the other hand, the Giants (0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS) battled hard on Thursday night but lost to Washington 30-29, although New York did manage to cover as 4-point road dogs. This line opened with the Giants listed as a 3-point home favorite. The public is undecided and doesn't know which bad team to back. However, we've seen the Falcons 3 get juiced up to -120 and some shops have even fallen to 2.5. This indicates respected monrey backing Atlanta. Over the past decade, when two teams who are 0-2 face off in Week 3, the dog is 10-6 ATS (63 percent). Also, teams off a 20-point or more blowout loss (like Atlanta) are roughly 54 percent ATS the following game over the past decade. Short road dogs 6 or less are 9-1 ATS through two weeks this season.
4:25 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Los Angeles Rams
This possible NFC Championship game showdown will be by far the most popular and heavily bet game of the week. The Bucs (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) are coming off an impressive 48-25 shellacking of the Falcons, easily covering as 13-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Rams (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) edged the Colts 27-24 in Week 2, although they failed to cover as 4-point road favorites. This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a 1.5-point home favorite. Wiseguys have pounced on Tom Brady and the Bucs as a short dog, steaming Tampa Bay from 1.5 to -1.5. Tampa Bay matches the classic "dog to favorite" line move system that pros have leaned on for years. If you're late to the party, the Bucs may be more appealing as a moneyline play (-120) instead of laying the small points. We could also be looking at a higher scoring game here. The total opened at a super-high 54 and has been bet up to 55.5. Both teams are 2-0 to the over this season.
More Sunday Line Moves
Cardinals -7 to -7.5 at Jaguars
Ravens-Lions Over 49 to 50.5
Dolphins 4.5 to 3.5 at Raiders
Seahawks-Vikings Under 56 to 54.5
Packers-49ers Over 48 to 50.5
Bob Balfe
Indy +5.5
Miami +4
Denver -10.5
TB -1
NY Jets/Denver O42
TB/LA Rams O55
Seattle/Minnesota U55
NFL
1:00 PM EST
Rotation #471
Colts +5.5 over Titans
The reason why many people don’t win at gambling over the course of time is because they remember what they saw last week and apply it to the current week. Football is all about matchups. The Colts come into this game with Carson Wentz hurt on both ankles. Wentz has struggled the last few years, but he’s a very tough guy. I think the Colts will run the ball well today which will set up the pass. Tennessee is vulnerable on defense with a very thin secondary. This Titans team was getting rocked last week and made a nice 4th quarter comeback. Derrick Henry is always a weapon, but this team is very predictable. Indianapolis has a lot of experience in the secondary that can slow this passing game down and make tackles. I give the edge to the Colts special teams as well. Take Indianapolis.
NFL
4:05 PM EST
Rotation #487
Dolphins +4 over Raiders
Just like in our 1 PM EST game people bet what they see last week. Now I am not saying this is a sure winner, but over the course of time we win these types of games. Miami lost their top QB last week in a blowout loss and Vegas beat two good teams this year. All of the money in the world is on Vegas so why just the 4 point line? This offensive line for Vegas is banged up and Josh Jacobs is out this week. The Miami Secondary is stacked with playmakers. Jacoby Brissett is a capable backup that can manage this offense. This offensive line has played together for a while and there are sneaky good weapons on this team. Take the Dolphins.
NFL
4:05 PM EST
Rotation #490
Broncos -10.5 over Jets
Broncos/Jets Over 42
The Broncos have a very good offensive line that can open holes for Melvin Gordon and allow Teddy Bridgewater the time to find his open guys. The Jets Defense is just not of NFL quality this year and in this building are going to be lost with the noise and the altitude. This Jets Secondary is a mess so I expect the Broncos to go wire to wire in a blowout win. I think Zach Wilson will be OK in this league after he is traded in 3 years like Sam Darnold was. The Jets should be able to put up a couple points as the Broncos Defense has a few injuries, but I don’t think they will be able to match Denver on the other side. Take the Broncos and the Over.
NFL
4:25 PM EST
Rotation #491
Bucs -1 over Rams
Bucs/Rams Over 55
It’s rare to see NFL games where both teams have all 5 starters on the offensive line returning from a season ago. The Bucs have almost a flawless roster. There is nothing this team with Tom Brady can’t do on offense. Matthew Stafford and the Rams are not far behind, but they only played 2 games together so the familiar reps just are not there yet. I love how this team goes for the deep ball. This is a playoff like game in September. Both teams have great defensive starters, but their depth is really weak. If there are in game injuries or players taking breathers the opposing offense will attack. Look for a lot of points in this game and in the end the Super Bowl Champs getting a big road win. Take the Bucs and the Over.
NFL
4:25 PM EST
Rotation #493-494
Seahawks/Vikings Under 55
I love the Under in this game. Both teams have new offensive coordinators so the defenses are ahead of the offenses. The Vikings lack a lot of talent at the skill positions and in this game Dalvin Cook is questionable with an ankle injury. This is a predictable team so the Seattle defense should be able to keep them in check. The Seahawks have offensive line issues which will have them playing behind the chains in a few drives today. I am shocked this total is set so high. Take the Under.
