Sunday Service Play Thread 01/19/2020

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bank--it

bank--it

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[h=1]Last update 9:12am ET. Next update for 2pm ET.[/h][h=2]If you aren't comfortable betting, don't or modify.[/h][h=1]1 unit on Siena -3 over Niagara ///LJP Score 4OPEN[/h][h=1]1 unit parlay on Siena -3, S Dakota -1.5 over S Dakota St, Kansas City -7 over Tennessee. Parlay pays 5.81 units.[/h]
RH club -20 units+
 

Sleez

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4.5-Star Packers at 49ers OVER 46.5 Aaron Rogers got the Packers one game away from the Super Bowl and Green Bay is going to rely on him again. Rogers has a raft of good receivers available to him, any of which could get six-plus catches and 100-plus yards. We are on the over.

In their game vs the Seahawks, Green Bay held the Seahawks to only three third down conversions while getting a fresh set of downs on third down nine times.

This, and the fact that they are a significant dog here, qualifies the Packers for a playoff-only system that is perfect in the history of the database. In the playoffs, six-plus point road dogs are 14-0 OU when they are off a home game in which they held their opponent to four or fewer third down conversions. The SDQL is an efficient:

A and line>=6 and p:H and po:3DM<=4 and playoffs=1

Last week against the Seahawks, Aaron Jones was targeted twice, but he only had four receiving yards. This activates a career-perfect performance indicator involving Mr Jones. Since has was drafted in 2017, Green Bay is 12-0 OU off a home game the previous week in which they completed at least 50% of their passes and Jones had less than 20 receiving yards. The SDQL text is:

team=Packers and Aaron Jones
tongue.gif
:receiving yards<20 and p:H and p:CP>=50 and NB and season >= 2017

In addition, the Packers are 8-0 OU (+8.62 ppg) on the road on grass after a game in which they scored zero field goals, 9-0 OU (+8.22 ppg) on the road vs a non-divisional opponent when they are off a home game in which they converted at least five third downs, and 8-0 OU (+11.38 ppg) without extra rest when they are off home win in which they had a 40-plus yard reception. The SDQL for the third of this trio is:

team=Packers and max
tongue.gif
:longest reception>=40 and rest<7 and p:HW and season >= 2016

Lastly, we have strong evidence that a big road dog vs an elite defensive team is a strong OVER play. Road dogs by at least a TD are 8-0 OU vs a team that has allowed an average of fewer than 320 yards of offense per game, flying over the total by an average of 21.88 ppg. The SDQL is:

A and line>=7 and p:F and oA(o:TY) < 320 and date>=20180114

Green Bay is going to come out aggressively and the 49rs have the offensive firepower to keep up.

MTis FORECAST: 49ERS 31 Packers 28
 

Sleez

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4.5-Star Titans +7 over CHIEFS The Chiefs are talking like they are already in the Superbowl just like the Ravens were in the opening round of the playoffs. The Chiefs are feeling invincible after their stunning, record-breaking, come-from-behind win over the Texans. The Titans, however, are a lot better than the Texans. We expect this one to come down to the final drive. We are taking the points.

The Chiefs are at home off a big win and the Titans have benefitted from a positive takeaway margin in each of their two playoff games. This actives a play-AGAINST system for which the Chiefs qualify. Teams that are at home on grass off a double-digit win are 0-22 ATS vs a team that has committed an average of fewer than 1.7 turnovers per game and had fewer turnovers than their opponent in each of their last two games. The SDQL text is:

H and surface=grass and NDIV and p:F and p:margin >= 10 and op:TOM<0 and opp:TOM<0 and oA(TO) < 1.7 and date >= 20101200

Teams in this spot have been an average of a 4.4 point favorite, but they have lost by an average score of 33.4 points to 16.9 points.

The Titans qualify for a play-ON system that states, road dogs of more than six points on grass vs a non-divisional opponent are 16-0 ATS with at least normal rest when they are off a game as a dog and they are facing a team that had fewer than 26 minutes of possession time in their last game and did not suffer a four-plus turnover margin. The SDQL text is:


A and surface=grass and NDIV and p
biggrin.gif
and line > 6 and op:TOP/60 < 26 and rest>=6 and op:TOM<4 and season >= 2007

The Titans themselves are 9-0 ATS (10.00 ppg) off a game as a dog in which they had less than 100 passing yards, 8-0 ATS (10.25 ppg) when they are off a road game and they allowed at least five third down conversion in each of their last two games, and 9-0 ATS (11.89 ppg) as a dog on grass off a road game facing an opponent that is averaging fewer than 4.00 punts per game. The SDQL for the third of this trio is:

team=Titans and D and surface=grass and p:A and oA(punts)<4 and date>=20120923

Tennessee has been in this spot three times since the start of the 2018 season; they beat the Patriots, Chiefs and Ravens straight up as a significant underdog.

The Chiefs have had a lot of trouble covering a number at home vs a non-divisional opponent that does not turn the ball over. Since October 2016, Kansas City has hosted eight non-divisional opponents that have turned the ball over less than 1.25 times per game. They are 0-8 straight up and in their last three qualifying games from this season - vs the Colts, Texans and Packers - they lost all three straight up.

We are grabbing the points and sprinkling a bit on the moneyline as well.

MTis FORECAST: Titans 23 CHIEFS 20
 

Fink

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Can anyone confirm his 5*play please?
Seen GB, but didnt get a warm fuzzy on accuracy....
TIA!

Galen Thomas said:

$40​
Click to expand...
 
JayGrace

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Brad Feinberg
SF -7
SF -1 and KC -1 teaser
D. Adams under 85.5 yards
A. Rodgers under 238.5 yards
P. Mahomes over 1.5 TD passes
 

Kysps2020

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Machines picks. 2-1 each of last 2 days
pacers + 2
s dak st +2
san Fran over 46. All 10 units
 
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