Way too early TSP Playoff plays update:
[h=2]LJP Score:[/h][h=2]Houston = 0[/h][h=2]Kansas City = 3U[/h][h=2]OVER = 2U[/h][h=2]UNDER = 0[/h][h=2]Top Sharp Consensus count:[/h][h=2]SIDE is 2-1 KC -8 (DNQ)[/h][h=2]TOTAL is 2-0 OV49.5 (DNQ)[/h] [h=2]LJP Score:[/h][h=2]Seattle = 0[/h][h=2]Green Bay = 2OPEN[/h][h=2]OVER = 2OPEN[/h][h=2]UNDER = 0[/h][h=2]Top Sharp Consensus count:[/h][h=2]SIDE is 1-0 GB -4 (DNQ)[/h][h=2]TOTAL is 2-0 OV46 (DNQ)[/h]
[h=2]LJP Score:[/h][h=2]Houston = 0[/h][h=2]Kansas City = 3U[/h][h=2]OVER = 2U[/h][h=2]UNDER = 0[/h][h=2]Top Sharp Consensus count:[/h][h=2]SIDE is 2-1 KC -8 (DNQ)[/h][h=2]TOTAL is 2-0 OV49.5 (DNQ)[/h] [h=2]LJP Score:[/h][h=2]Seattle = 0[/h][h=2]Green Bay = 2OPEN[/h][h=2]OVER = 2OPEN[/h][h=2]UNDER = 0[/h][h=2]Top Sharp Consensus count:[/h][h=2]SIDE is 1-0 GB -4 (DNQ)[/h][h=2]TOTAL is 2-0 OV46 (DNQ)[/h]
Today’s Selections –
I am going to have another update at 5:30pm ET for the late game and any evening action in other sports. To start the day I am advising a 0.50 unit play on Siena -2 over Manhattan and 0.35 units on UConn +2.5 over Wichita St. Currently both Siena and UConn achieve an LJP scores of 3. The Siena game is from our friend and I am seeing good sharp backing for it. The UConn play is a major LJP move since the open (Wichita St 3) so I’ll give the angle a shot. It’s essentially pizza money and these wild moves have been strong.
I am going to have another update at 5:30pm ET for the late game and any evening action in other sports. To start the day I am advising a 0.50 unit play on Siena -2 over Manhattan and 0.35 units on UConn +2.5 over Wichita St. Currently both Siena and UConn achieve an LJP scores of 3. The Siena game is from our friend and I am seeing good sharp backing for it. The UConn play is a major LJP move since the open (Wichita St 3) so I’ll give the angle a shot. It’s essentially pizza money and these wild moves have been strong.
Tony Bruno-
Pat Mahomes and company (KC Chiefs) get a rematch against the Houston Texans who won at Arrowhead in week 6, but Mahomes was operating on 1 foot then and comes in the extra week to rest.
Texans QB DeShaun Watson, Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson ran wild in the first meeting, but Andy Reid’s defense has allowed 11.5 pts per game over the last 6. KC gives up the run, but they are awesome vs the pass.
Houston can run AND pass, but their D is susceptible to the pass, which Mahomes does especially well on 3rd downs. KC has too much offense and that’s why I’m laying the generous 9 1/2
Sunday 6:40pm “On the Frozen Tundra of Lambeau Field”
Finally, can the road warriors from Seattle keep riding the massive shoulders of Russell Wilson or will the Packers and the Aarons be too much for the defense formerly known as the Legion of Boom?
Aaron Rodgers has seen some tough starts, but when he gets the turbo boost of Aaron Jones and his 19 TD’s, the Pack and Seahawks shapes up as the most competitive game of the weekend (at least on paper and Vegas).
Green Bay has a huge advantage with 3 of the NFL’s top defenders who should frustrate the Seattle O-Line and Wilson all day. Lay the 4 pts on the Pack
Pat Mahomes and company (KC Chiefs) get a rematch against the Houston Texans who won at Arrowhead in week 6, but Mahomes was operating on 1 foot then and comes in the extra week to rest.
Texans QB DeShaun Watson, Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson ran wild in the first meeting, but Andy Reid’s defense has allowed 11.5 pts per game over the last 6. KC gives up the run, but they are awesome vs the pass.
Houston can run AND pass, but their D is susceptible to the pass, which Mahomes does especially well on 3rd downs. KC has too much offense and that’s why I’m laying the generous 9 1/2
Sunday 6:40pm “On the Frozen Tundra of Lambeau Field”
Finally, can the road warriors from Seattle keep riding the massive shoulders of Russell Wilson or will the Packers and the Aarons be too much for the defense formerly known as the Legion of Boom?
Aaron Rodgers has seen some tough starts, but when he gets the turbo boost of Aaron Jones and his 19 TD’s, the Pack and Seahawks shapes up as the most competitive game of the weekend (at least on paper and Vegas).
Green Bay has a huge advantage with 3 of the NFL’s top defenders who should frustrate the Seattle O-Line and Wilson all day. Lay the 4 pts on the Pack
DR. CHUCK SUNDAY
BASKETBALL PLAYS
Game: (821) Michigan State at (822) Purdue
Date/Time: Jan 12 2020 12:00 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Over 136.0 (-108)
View Analysis
Purdue has not been the same ole Purdue for the most part since the end of December....despite a PATHETIC hiccup against Illinois. Today they host Sparty...who is becoming better by the game...back to the #1 we expected with Cash doing it all from the 1.
Purdue is back home and CAN score...where MSU isn't the best defense in the world, they are just great at whipping on teams lately and while I'd expect that again here....Painter will have his boys ready and while they aren't as good as the Final Four team from a year, they are still a very solid B1G team from the best conference in hoops and should be game for a great effort at home.
I like to back the defensive end in college hoops as much as anyone, but here we have the team with the best offensive efficiency at a 116, with Purdue not all that terrible at 105+....and a total that underestimates which end will dominate in my opinion....as both teams have a sub-90 defensive efficiency and Purdue that likes to run at a snail's pace....but not lately as much as the earliest parts of the season.
This bet is mostly about being a little off from my numbers and the added bonus of Purdue being extra game for their biggest game so far this year....in West Lafayette
Game: (835) Siena at (836) Manhattan
Date/Time: Jan 12 2020 2:00 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Siena -135
View Analysis
Not the best price...but the price we must pay for a winner on a ML I would rank as a certain 5+% play today in MAAC-tion.
It is quite possible Manhattan, to this point, is the WORST .500 or better offense in the entire nation....with the only time they rank inside the top 200 overall in anyting on the offensive end is #191 at avoiding getting their shots blocked...at which they will be at a decent size disadvantage against the Saints today.
The Jaspers are playing their first home MAAC game after a bad loss on Friday at Fairfield, but following (somehow) road wins at Canisius and Niagara....before this big step up in class...albeit at home today. This combined with the fact Siena hasn't won a game on the road yet this season gets us this bargain line I have in the -3/4 for Siena at open in my numbers.
X factors today for our W will be the monster edge Siena will hold on the defensive glass....at 6th...yes, MAAC team ranked 6th at disallowing opponents second chances...largely led by Manny Camper, who is the reasoning for the ranking, himself in the top 25 nationally on the defensive boards...and along with his cohorts make up a lineup that....while potentially blasphemous in a mostly competitive league...may prohibit ANY of the starters for Manhattan to crack a top 5 (or 6) for Siena. If there was a player, like Tykei Greene is the guy...and his status for today is even in question....only furthering this potential insane mismatch today!
Get the line if you can get less than a bucket....I also like that play at -1.5 especially....-2 is solid and both would be 4% plays while the ML is at least a 5% play for certain!
BASKETBALL PLAYS
Game: (821) Michigan State at (822) Purdue
Date/Time: Jan 12 2020 12:00 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Over 136.0 (-108)
View Analysis
Purdue has not been the same ole Purdue for the most part since the end of December....despite a PATHETIC hiccup against Illinois. Today they host Sparty...who is becoming better by the game...back to the #1 we expected with Cash doing it all from the 1.
Purdue is back home and CAN score...where MSU isn't the best defense in the world, they are just great at whipping on teams lately and while I'd expect that again here....Painter will have his boys ready and while they aren't as good as the Final Four team from a year, they are still a very solid B1G team from the best conference in hoops and should be game for a great effort at home.
I like to back the defensive end in college hoops as much as anyone, but here we have the team with the best offensive efficiency at a 116, with Purdue not all that terrible at 105+....and a total that underestimates which end will dominate in my opinion....as both teams have a sub-90 defensive efficiency and Purdue that likes to run at a snail's pace....but not lately as much as the earliest parts of the season.
This bet is mostly about being a little off from my numbers and the added bonus of Purdue being extra game for their biggest game so far this year....in West Lafayette
Game: (835) Siena at (836) Manhattan
Date/Time: Jan 12 2020 2:00 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Siena -135
View Analysis
Not the best price...but the price we must pay for a winner on a ML I would rank as a certain 5+% play today in MAAC-tion.
It is quite possible Manhattan, to this point, is the WORST .500 or better offense in the entire nation....with the only time they rank inside the top 200 overall in anyting on the offensive end is #191 at avoiding getting their shots blocked...at which they will be at a decent size disadvantage against the Saints today.
The Jaspers are playing their first home MAAC game after a bad loss on Friday at Fairfield, but following (somehow) road wins at Canisius and Niagara....before this big step up in class...albeit at home today. This combined with the fact Siena hasn't won a game on the road yet this season gets us this bargain line I have in the -3/4 for Siena at open in my numbers.
X factors today for our W will be the monster edge Siena will hold on the defensive glass....at 6th...yes, MAAC team ranked 6th at disallowing opponents second chances...largely led by Manny Camper, who is the reasoning for the ranking, himself in the top 25 nationally on the defensive boards...and along with his cohorts make up a lineup that....while potentially blasphemous in a mostly competitive league...may prohibit ANY of the starters for Manhattan to crack a top 5 (or 6) for Siena. If there was a player, like Tykei Greene is the guy...and his status for today is even in question....only furthering this potential insane mismatch today!
Get the line if you can get less than a bucket....I also like that play at -1.5 especially....-2 is solid and both would be 4% plays while the ML is at least a 5% play for certain!
ROB VENO
FOOTBALL PLAYS
Game: (305) Houston Texans at (306) Kansas City Chiefs
Date/Time: Jan 12 2020 3:05 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Total Over 51.0 (-110)
View Analysis
Game: (307) Seattle Seahawks at (308) Green Bay Packers
Date/Time: Jan 12 2020 6:40 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Under 46.5 (-110)
View Analysis
BASKETBALL PLAYS
Game: (823) Wichita State at (824) Connecticut
Date/Time: Jan 12 2020 12:00 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Over 133.0 (-110)
FOOTBALL PLAYS
Game: (305) Houston Texans at (306) Kansas City Chiefs
Date/Time: Jan 12 2020 3:05 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Total Over 51.0 (-110)
View Analysis
Game: (307) Seattle Seahawks at (308) Green Bay Packers
Date/Time: Jan 12 2020 6:40 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Under 46.5 (-110)
View Analysis
BASKETBALL PLAYS
Game: (823) Wichita State at (824) Connecticut
Date/Time: Jan 12 2020 12:00 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Over 133.0 (-110)
