SUNDAY BONUS BET O THE DAY

[OccamsRazor]

RECORD YTD 35-20 (.636)
SIDES 25-13 (.657)
TOTALS 10-7 (.588)

Dallas kept their winning streak alive and brought home the money here earlier.

Will take a flyer here with Hawks +11 in a value play. Teams have faced each other twice this season with resulting wins of 5 and 3 by Detroit. Detroit winning their home games by 9 as a favorite. Atlanta dropping their road games by 11 as a dog. Atlanta's defense has come alive and kept them in ballgames the last 6 (5-0-1 ATS). Detroit is 1-3 ATS laying double digits at home.

ATLANTA+11

 

[OccamsRazor]

sweet.

[This message was edited by OccamsRazor on January 25, 2004 at 09:27 PM.]

 

[SSI]

without asking you what you put on each game, ill ask "what percentage of your bankroll do you play on each game". great nba season that your having by the way.. when your play of the day is an early game, how tempted are you to play a later game.. its probably easier if you win the early one.. any comments.. less is more : is that your motto?

 

[wilheim]

OR - the duplicate thread is deleted. Nice capping with the Grizz. today BOL. with the Hawks pick.

wil.

 

[TheFunkMonkey]

Hmmmm. Not sure, but I think Atlanta covered the 11 points.

Nice pick OR. Watch out for the Hawks and Suns ATS! Both teams have been playing better recently.

 

[Winfo]

great call on the Atlanta and Dallas game today!

 

[sammythesage]

props to you

 

[SHACK]

Great call once again Occam. Keep up the great work.

 

[OccamsRazor]

This was a nice dog straight up win. Hope some of you had the money line. You saw the dogs starting to bite on Saturday with San Antonio and Indy going down straight up. Guess it was Detroit's turn in hindsight.

Nolimitholdem, hope you saw this post.

SSI: I start out with a Suicidal 20% and go down from there. Down, meaning that if I lose my first 2, I drastically cut back to like 5%. 5 straight losses wipes me out at 20%. 5 straight wins doubles my bankroll. I don't recommend it for anyone. It works for me. The most losses in a row I've had here this season has been 2 and its a happened 3 times with the last coming this last Friday, Saturday. I won 2 today so I'm back to where I was Thursday, bankroll wise minus juice. When I have 3 losses in a row I dramatically cut back to like 5% and ride it out. Bankroll preservation being my number one goal. I bet a little more when I'm way ahead and cut back drastically when things start to go wrong. I'm a grinder, no hurry. I also take money from the bankroll to buy toys and enjoy the finer things in life. I've had lots of 3 game runs, 4, some 5 and the longest has been 10 this season here.I won't announce I'm on a streak due to superstitions, "I just post em you bet em if you like em." Betting one game at a time gives me the luxury of discrimination. If there are 10 games out there, I can choose the one game that I believe gives me the most advantage or I can pass on all.I have strict criteria that I adhere to and I spend most of my time throwing games out.The pass is the most under used weapon in the bettors arsenal I believe. I should use it more often myself.

Yes the, "less is more" is a motto that I believe in. I will occasionally bet a bonus if I won an early game but that has to be a game that almost became a best bet. Like us all, I try not to chase, but you can be assured that if I lost an early game and I'm betting a second game later that day and posting it, old Occam is chasing. I rarely do it.

 

[markymark+]

Anything today Razor?? Keep up the good work!!


RSS

 

[SSI]

thanks for your answer razor, where did this name come from?

20% for me would be suicidal, glad you said that its not for everyone, but one must do what works for oneself.. as in dieting, what works for one may not work for another..

i am also on a program, where i make a withdraw each time that i get a certain amount over the .500 mark and then start over... whats the use of winning without being able to enjoy it.. what is working for me now is a flat $200 per game and i for one need to cut down on my plays. im also superstitious, i have been winning and not posting this past week, thus i will continue to do so.. all my best tonight with your upcoming selection, my money is on you picking cleveland or milwaukee..

 

[OccamsRazor]

SSI: Occams Razor is a principle attributed to the 14th century logician, William of Occam. Ockham was the village in the English county of Surrey were he was born.

The principle basically states: "The simplest explanation for some phenomena is more likely to be accurate than more complicated explanations" or "If you have two equally likely solutions to a problem, pick the simplest." or "The explanation requiring the fewest assumptions is most likely to be correct." or in the form which takes its own advice,"Keep Things Simple." The Razor refers symbolically to the cutting away of all the minutiae and leaving the obvious.

In Capping we are faced with a multitude of objective and subjective choices when trying to pick a winner. To many subjective variables can cloud our thinking leading us to make a flawed decision, that in hindsight we say, "What the F was I thinking! The Occams Razor principle helps to keep things simple and not over analyze. Lots of the time just picking the better team or picking the home team is sufficient enough with out getting caught up in, "On a backtoback, flying in from back east the Bulls are 7-0 when facing a westcoast team coming off a loss as a favorite on 2 days rest." What?? Just tell me who the better team is and I'll take it from there.


I don't ask bad teams to win me money as favorites so Cleveland is out. San Antonio held Milwacky to its lowest point total this season. I asked myself what type of team is going to come into Milwacky and beat them? San Antonio is a good answer. I like both Cleveland and Milwacky tonight but not enough to bet them.

 

[tjin1969]

Great write up! It opens up my mind in capping the games. any good picks tonight? Good luck!

 

[SSI]

deep stuff man, no wonder that you want to keep things simple,, you dabbling any in the nhl or ncaab these days.. good luck on your under, by the way....

i suck at totals and dont do many these days, thats some of the cutting away that you mentioned. i noticed that you pick sides better than totals yourself, do you ever think about trimming that away.. the KISS principle is usually best, i went with mil and clev tonight, lets see how i do..