Sunday Bet O The Day 9/21 WEEK 3

[OccamsRazor]

YTD 2-1
SIDES 2-1
TOTALS 0-0

Week 1 Panthers +9 W
Week 2 Saints +1 L Eagles +7 W

Minny-3'and at 0-2 faces a perceived must win situation at Home. The Panthers at 2-0 and with arguably the better defense and offense are receiving 3'points on the Rd.

Just because Minny has a perceived must win does not automatically put a W in the win column, they are 0-2 for a reason don't forget.

Without any further considerations what we have here again is a live Dog, with wings, as they say.

Panthers +3'

I'll update the writeup throughout the week. But bottom line win the Turnover battle win the game. Below my picks and how they fared in the TO battle:

Week 1 SD/CARO Push in the TOs 1-1 W
Week 2 NO/WASH Lost in the TOs 1-3 L. PHIL/DALL Won TOs 2-1 W

Panthers are conservative and so far have a better TO ratio than Minny.

 

[thecruncher]

I like it, plus they get Steve Smith back this week as well. Perfect timing when facing the Vikings.

 

[OccamsRazor]

Wanted to talk about the most important stat in the NFL, Turnovers. Since the inception of American Football one percentage has remained constant at 80%.. that's right,Turnovers, win the Turnover battle and win the game and ATS 80% of the time.

The first 2 week results:

Week 1 9-2-5 81%
Week 2 10-2-3 83%

The 5 and 3 ties in weeks 1 and 2 means that there was an equal number of Turnovers in the game by the teams so neither won the turnover battle.

As you Analyze every single variable in your games don't forget this simple 80% predictor:

Who is likely to win the turnover battle? Easier said than done.

There are certain situations that correlate with Turnovers ie rookie QBs, Qbs that have a track record for Int and Fumbles. Kitna has led the league in INTs last 2 years, What did he do last week? Running backs that fumble etc. You want to be aware of your teams Turnover and Takeaway potential.

Who is going to win the turnover battle in Minny? My money is on the Panthers winning the Turnover battle.

One other thing Minny won the turnover battle against the Colts last week but still lost the game, a rare occurance and indicating some serious problems with Minny.

More to come.

 

[OccamsRazor]

Jake(ComeBack Kid)Del Hommie Vs Terriblevaris Jackson


Who do you want as your QB for that 2 minute cash grabbing drive? :think2:

 

[OccamsRazor]

Minnesota crossed midfield on each of its first eight possessions against the Colts, but failed to score a TD. …

Meanwhile Panthers scored 17 unanswered points to beat Da Bears.

 

[OccamsRazor]

Damn Childress figured it out, still Frerotte is not a winner 37-44 as a starter.

NFL.com 9/17

In the offseason, Minnesota expressed little interest in trading for Brett Favre. It insisted it had its quarterback of the future in Tarvaris Jackson. But now Vikings coach Brad Childress just announced that Jackson has been benched.
Effective immediately, Gus Frerotte is the Vikings’ new starting quarterback. His first start will come Sunday against Carolina, in a game the 0-2 Vikings badly need.
Starting Sunday is one thing. But now the question becomes what the Vikings do at quarterback long term. Jackson has not been the answer so far, and his benching would indicate he will not be any time soon. Minnesota also drafted John David Booty, and he could be groomed.
But Minnesota is searching for an answer at quarterback. For now it is hoping it is Frerotte. For the future, it is wide open.

 

[OccamsRazor]

Peterson's hamstring hurting?? 2 Viking wide receivers also ??

Some Viking bettors are seeing Ferrotes promotion as a Plus?

If Ferrote is better than Jackson why was Ferrote not the starter to begin with? Because he is not better than Jackson, this was a panic move by the coach.

Now you have the second string starting, the Viking Qb position was downgrated with Ferrote starting not upgraded.

 

[uscmd]

GL OC, I really like the play.

 

[OccamsRazor]

ADDING: Panther Team Total OVER 17

The worst passing defense last year has not improved much.​

 

[OccamsRazor]

17 is the standard that great defenses are judged by. Both the unbeaten season Dolphins and last year Patriots averaged gave up 17 on average.

17 tomorrow for the Panthers vs the 32nd pass defense in the league last year looks good. A defense that picked up where it left of last year? Greenbay's Rodgers made everyone forget Favre as he had his way with Minny's pass defense, the same with Manning in the 4th qtr last game.

Dont forget Panther D can also score tomorrow vs rusty Ferotte.

 

[QUEENOFHEARTS]

very great stuff OC!! you have now become my 3rd must read at the RX. I totally agree with ya here on Carolina.....Thanks for the pointing advice.

 

[CaptFlippy]

You are absolutely %100 correct! Good info provided, Thanks.

 

[Greenbacks]

GL:toast:

 

[Paddywack]

This makes sense to me, I'm on the OR bandwagon.

 

[ESQAJM]

very great stuff OC!! you have now become my 3rd must read at the RX. I totally agree with ya here on Carolina.....Thanks for the pointing advice.

Who is your 1st and 2nd?

 

[QUEENOFHEARTS]

Who is your 1st and 2nd?

during Football season , ACE is definitely a daily ritual......followed by Mr. Kojak ( he doesnt post every day but when he does, he will post several within a good thread and share "seasoned and mature imformation just as Occansrazor does). The cruncher is a very good read also.

During basketball season , things are a little different. I will tune into BIGBOOKIE 3-5 times a day. and always watch your system plays during the WNBA.......by the way ,hows your daughter?

QOH's

 

[OccamsRazor]

Per ESPN:

2 hours before kickoff Peterson not on the field, still in the trainers room. Peterson telliing teammates its not that bad, trainer will make final decision.


Ferrotte struggling with terminology, playbook and game plan simplified.

 

[QUEENOFHEARTS]

AWSOME IMFO OC !! Thank you for your reports

 

[OccamsRazor]

PETERSEN WILL PLAY ON THE FIELD NOW WARMING UP. 1 HOUR 15 MIN BEFORE KICKOFF. LOOKS GOOD, LIMBER

 

[ACE-ACE]

very great stuff OC!! you have now become my 3rd must read at the RX. I totally agree with ya here on Carolina.....Thanks for the pointing advice.

he been around and knows what he doing...so its always good to see what he on...also hansen bros.<SCRIPT type=text/javascript> vbmenu_register("postmenu_5772512", true); </SCRIPT> SHOULD BE CHECK OUT ALSO!

GL TODAY OccamsRazor ALWAYS CHECK WHAT YOU ARE ON.