SUNDAY BET O THE DAY 9/14 2nd WEEK

[OccamsRazor]

YTD 1-0
SIDES 1-0
TOTALS 0-0

Week 1 Panthers+9 W


If you look at the Redskin/Saint line from a defensive viewpoint,(last years stats) you'd see that the Redskins are a great value at -1 after all the Saints were a league worst 5.78 yds against(32) on defense to the Redskins 4.76 (4th best).

If you look at it from an offensive point of view the Saints +1 looks like a sucker bet, after all why are the Saints getting points? The Redskin offense sucks and Saints offense soars. But alas you have to take both sides of the ball into account and between these 2 the strengths and weaknesses cancel each other out thus a nearly pick-em game and a correct line.

Now this is 2008 and the Skins have regressed offensively under a new head coach. Skins were pathetic in the the exhibition as they struggled to grasp new offensive schemes. The problems continued against a good Giant defense. Look for the offense to show some improvement against that 32nd Saint defense.

Saints on the other hand showed some improvement on the defensive side of the ball only giving up 13 points to Tampa. Offensively, they didnt miss a beat from last year.

I believe that the Saint defense will do enough to get the win here. If New Orleans gets ahead, Redskins will be in trouble as they are struggling offensively and have been for the last 5 games.

I'll take the better QB and the better offense vs their better defense, Brees will get protection he needs, Bush will get his touches and Zorn will get ripped by the home press come Monday.

SAINTS+1

 

[OccamsRazor]

Adding:

Redskin offense is stuck on learn. The Saints come in with a statistically horrible defense (32) from last season but showing an improvement in their first game. I'm counting on the Redsking offense and the New Orleans defense playing to a draw with a small advantage to NO.

Its the NO offense, Redskin defense matchup where I see NO having a distinct advantage. NO will always be in the game, I can't say the same for the Redskins if they fall behind. will update through out the week.

 

[OccamsRazor]

I don't think that the Hapless New Orleans defense will be the cure for what ails the Washington offense.

Revamped Redskins look like a brand new franchise and thats not good. Zorn in way over his head as a first time head coach.

Only thing going for Redskins is that 74% of the bettors are taking New Orleans at wagerline, a good contrarian indicator... majority/public can't always be wrong, maybe this is one the majority gets right.

Turnovers, that's what it is going to come down to. I see the struggling Redskins losing that battle. Simple

 

[OccamsRazor]

Colston out for NO.

Campbell led all QBs with 8 lost fumbles last year also had 12TDs/11INTS

Brees 28TDs/18INTS 4 lost Fumbles

Bush led all running backs with 7 lost fumbles.



Win the TO battle, win the game.

Who's gonna blow it?

 

[OccamsRazor]

Colston went out early last game, rest of receivers stepped up. Look for more of the same Sunday.

 

[OccamsRazor]

Can the Redskin offense improve versus a hapless Orleans D? my money is on not.

From ESPN:
"When Washington has the ball
The Redskins offense was inept in the Week 1. Less than 210 yards of offense will not win many contests, so look for head coach Jim Zorn to get QB Jason Campbell on track early with his West Coast passing attack. Campbell is more of a downfield passer and it appears he is still getting acclimated to the new system Zorn has brought to Washington. Talented TE Chris Cooley should be more involved in the air attack and perimeter threats WRs Santana Moss and Antwaan Randle El will move the chains with their speed and quickness after the catch.
The 4-3 defensive scheme that the Saints will bring to Washington was somewhat-gashed by Tampa Bay in Week 1 for 7.3 yards per carry. Zorn will likely work to establish a ground assault early in the contest to take some pressure off his fourth-year signal caller. RB Clinton Portis has deceptive power as an inside runner, but is best off tackle and on the perimeter behind powerful lead blocker FB Mike Sellers. The Redskins have a talented offensive line and they won't see as many pressure packages in Week 2 as they did against New York.

 

[OccamsRazor]

From NFL.com: Nice for Campbell to share that its not just him.

Quarterback Jason Campbell had trouble in his first game in the West Coast offense under new coach Jim Zorn, going 15-of-27 for 133 yards. Zorn said Campbell needs to quicken his reactions to adapt to the new style.
"I think he's got enough athleticism, I really do, to speed up his game in certain situations," Zorn said. "And part of that I'm hoping is just the idea of understanding the offense better, the speed of it. He's not there yet."
Campbell agreed, adding that the whole team needed time to get comfortable with the new scheme.

"It's not just me; it's everybody," Campbell said. "Hopefully the light's going to come on quick for all of us, including the offensive coaches, and we build some kind of continuity and get trust going with each other, and get things going."

He's not finger pointing? Is he? Regardless its all not good.

 

[yanni_gogolak]

I Like This Too, Gl!

 

[thecruncher]

Yeah, the Saints have enough depth at WR and TE to make up for Colston's absence. Also, Cooley got dinged up last game and just started practicing on his quad again yesterday. Betts missed yesterday with a death in the family. The Skins have numerous nagging injuries on the defensive side that have kept some players out. Jason Taylor will be playing still at less than 100%, and it looks like Smoot will play this week as the Skins will need all the help they can get in the secondary. Marcus Washington is breaking down again.

That being said, the Saints have a gaggle of fresh injuries to the defense, and are especially thin on the D-Line, which will aid the Redskins' running game.

It really looks like both teams will be able to move the ball down the field. One big advantage for the Saints is red zone offense, as they were #1 at converting last year, while the Redskins were below average. Touchdowns will beat field goals.

 

[C-Gold]

From NFL.com: Nice for Campbell to share that its not just him.

Quarterback Jason Campbell had trouble in his first game in the West Coast offense under new coach Jim Zorn, going 15-of-27 for 133 yards. Zorn said Campbell needs to quicken his reactions to adapt to the new style.
"I think he's got enough athleticism, I really do, to speed up his game in certain situations," Zorn said. "And part of that I'm hoping is just the idea of understanding the offense better, the speed of it. He's not there yet."
Campbell agreed, adding that the whole team needed time to get comfortable with the new scheme.

"It's not just me; it's everybody," Campbell said. "Hopefully the light's going to come on quick for all of us, including the offensive coaches, and we build some kind of continuity and get trust going with each other, and get things going."

He's not finger pointing? Is he? Regardless its all not good.

Sort of reminds me of Michael Vick. The guy was obviously not smart enough to read NFL defenses, and blamed his coach, the receives, the media, the blockers etc.

Campbell's play is nothing like Vicks though. He is ultra conservative, and the coaching staff last year didn't allow him to call audibles ( just like Vick). Campbell does have a strong arm, but all you see out of it is WR screen, check down throw to the FB, check down throw to the HB, the tight end drag etc and MAYYYYYBE he throws a deep ball but only off of play action. He was terrible at throwing the ball intermedia to deep, and even though he has a strong arm, he doesn't throw a very accurate deep ball.

He also runs probably the worst 2 min drill in the league.

 

[OccamsRazor]

From NFL.com late Friday night: Saint injuries adding up


METAIRIE, La. -- The Saints' defense will be short at least three players who started in Week 1 when New Orleans plays at Washington on Sunday.
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Safety RomanHarper cornerback RandallGay and linebacker ScottFujita were unable to practice Friday, and coach Sean Payton said they will not play this weekend.

Harper pulled his right hamstring and Gay his left hamstring during the season-opening 24-20 victory over Tampa Bay last Sunday. Fujita bruised his right knee in the first quarter of that game, but returned to make a clinching interception.

This week, however, the swelling worsened, so trainers and coaches chose to hold him out, meaning the seventh-year veteran will miss only the second game of his career.

"I was kind of hoping for a miracle and I had hoped that by Friday I would be ready to go, but it's just not" better, Fujita said. "It's pretty painful. ... Hopefully by Monday I'll be able to run around a little bit and we'll see how that goes."

Cornerback Mike McKenzie, who tore his right anterior cruciate ligament late last season, practiced this week. He is very close to being ready, Payton said, adding his status would be a game-time decision.
On offense, the Saints will play a second straight week without reserve running Aaron Stecker (hamstring).

Deuce McAllister, coming back from a second knee reconstruction in three seasons, is expected to be in uniform for a second straight week, but whether he plays for the first time this season is unknown.
Payton said he called McAllister last Sunday night to reassure the Saints' all-time leading rusher that he's in the plans for Sunday's game.
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Meanwhile, the Saints placed linebacker Mark Simoneau on injured reserve. Simoneau, a starter the past two seasons, needs surgery on his back to repair a damaged disk, Payton said.
Simoneau's back began bothering him during the preseason and he was unable to play last week. He tried to practice this week before the team's medical staff decided it would be best for him to get surgery.
Simoneau was not expected to start because the Saints acquired Jonathan Vilma in an offseason trade. Still, Simoneau looked strong early in training camp and appeared on track to see regular action in what would have been his ninth season.

Payton said the Saints intended to sign defensive end Josh Savage from the practice squad to fill Simoneau's spot on the roster. The move also meant linebacker Jo-Lonn Dunbar, signed off the practice squad last week, will remain on the active roster for now.

 

[billbeater]

Loving Redskins in this spot! arty:

 

[MadTiger]

Thank you for your detailed analysis, OR.

 

[OccamsRazor]

Early Sunday morning here (1 am) able to post due to low traffic.

I find myself backing a perceived public/square pick in NO. So be it

I believe the NO defense will dominate the floundering Redskin offense, thats it. What the NO offense does is gravy.

Looking for a NO defensive TD. GL all.

 

[billbeater]

It wasn't very long ago that this Orleans offense could do nothing positive.......

I typically love your plays, but i am avidly against this one. Thanks for the writeup.


:think2:

 

[silver7]

IMO This Is One Of Those Gms

where the boys in LV are begging us to play the Saints. I DO think they'll miss Colston. Think I may pass. If not I'll play the Skins. BOL to all.

 

[C-Gold]

The Saints had 4 different players catch a 25+ yard pass last week.

Did Campbell even complete a 10 yard pass through the air last week? Checkdown Campbell.

 

[OccamsRazor]

New O losing turnover battle 1-2 at the half and trail by 2. Looking for NO to stop beating selfs in 2nd.

 

[OccamsRazor]

My bad. Skins went up by 2 with like a minute left in the half. I went to check on my computer which is messing up, made the above post came back and it was 10-9 NO at the half. Nice 1 minute drive there.

 

[OccamsRazor]

Lost the turnover battle 1-3 and the game. Brees has officially become turnover prone last game and now this game.

Note to self: Bet NO at your own risk.

Back at em next time.

:drink:Whisky