Sunday Bet O The Day 12/5

[OccamsRazor]

YTD 4-2
SIDES 3-2
TOTALS 1-0

Week 7 SD+3 W
Week 8 SD-6 W
Week 9 Philly Pk L
Week 10 Detroit+3.5 L
Week 11 SD-3.5 W
Week 12 INDY/DET UN 54 W

Last time out here, Lions and Colts stayed UNDER thanks to Sherman Lewis's horrible and predictable offensive game plan. Lions scored no TDs.

Off topic, but interesting. I had the UNDER 54 in the SC/Irish game. Total was 51 with time for 1 more play. The Irish had the ball on USC side of the field and were close enough to throw a Hail Mary into the endzone and sent the game OVER if answered and giving the Irish bettors, (who most probably had the OVER, human nature) a win. Much to my surprise and joy, the Irish RAN the ball and the game ended. I said to myself, "Wow what a bad call, that will probably cost the coach his job." Coach lost job 2 days later. Probably not just on that call, but it didn't help. On to important things...

I'm not a SD homer, it's just that they keep showing up in profitable situations. Sunday against Denver its another positive spot. Denver beat them earlier so we have revenge. SD leads the West and Denver is on their heels. Winner takes over to stop. According to Brees they don't want a repeat of the season when they were 8-4 and lost all their remaining games. SD coach has said that the most important games are divisional games, "Divisional games decide championships." Clearly this is the most important game of the season for the Chargers who come into the game on a hot streak. I like the fact that SD does not turn the ball over and Denver does. SD TO differential is +10 Denver's is -3. Plummer is prone to the inopportune interception.

SD kicker has become inconsistent and that troubles me. Line at Pinny was -2.5- 126 that is exorbitent considering the 3 is -101. $25 bucks for a half a point? Ouch.

By betting them on the money line, I can essentially buy the other 2.5 for $25 and make the game a pick'em. That is were I see value in this situation. That Kicker...

SD-151 Moneyline

Defense wins games in December, I look for the SD defense to win this game. Charger offense will be added gravy.

 

[OccamsRazor]

I was just looking at this from the game9000:

"Den/SD....Den covered 10 of the last 12 games as divisional road dogs of 2 or more pts.
Den 6-2-1 ats in their 1st underdog role of the season since 94.
SD 1-10 ats at home after playing KC since 95."

Just wanted to illustrate the constant battle between Technicians and Fundamentalists. Being a fundamentalist, I look at those trends and say, "People actually bet based on that?" Yep and that is why Technicians look at me at say the same thing. The battle goes on.

 

[OccamsRazor]

From Associated press:

"In Southern California, they're touting this as the biggest game since the Chargers went to the 1994 Super Bowl and lost to San Francisco.
"This is better than the team I saw at the Super Bowl," said Shanahan, who was offensive coordinator for the 49ers that year.

Maybe it was Plummer, though, who summed up the oddness of the situation when he talked about the consequences and disappointment of last week's loss to the archrival Raiders.

"We lost that game and we didn't want to," he said. "But we knew, either way, we were going to have to beat the Chargers."

It's been a long time since anyone in Denver has said that."

 

[ESQAJM]

Occam: When someone learns how to balance and integrate the fundamental aspects with the technical aspects it will be the greatest handicapping system ever.

I don't know if it's worth the price to buy the other 2.5 points for $25. If you lay 2.5 points and your team wins, how many times will you not cover? I would guess 1 out of 20 or 5%.
ESQAJM

 

[_wheredatreezat]

Occam: When someone learns how to balance and integrate the fundamental aspects with the technical aspects it will be the greatest handicapping system ever.

I don't know if it's worth the price to buy the other 2.5 points for $25. If you lay 2.5 points and your team wins, how many times will you not cover? I would guess 1 out of 20 or 5%.
ESQAJM

I was thinking the same exact thing. Would love to see someone come out and give us that exact number. I would feel as comfortable laying the 2.5 as I would with the ML at less juice...

 

[ElIguana]

Occams, I'm all over this red-hot SD team who is 8-0 ATS in last 8 games, hope the trend continues.

BTW, I wouldn't brag about winning the Indy/Detroit under 53 last week--score was 41-9 in the 3rd quarter, went entire 4th quarter w/out scoring a point! Don't tell me you didn't write that off as a loss in the 3rd quarter! GL

 

[OccamsRazor]

El Iguana: Not bragging bout the UNDER just that the Lion offense played to form in the 4th and all game for that matter. I never write off a bet as a winner or loser. I sweated and yes, prayed the whole 4th Qtr all the way to the final play, a knockdown pass in the endzone. Better lucky than good?

Esq: My betting the money line was a total gut feeling play. I 'feel' a SD win by 2 and I can't shake it. SD kicker scares me. I want a SD blowout but that kicker could play too much of a role here. I hope I'm wrong about the kicker and right about a SD blowout.

 

[MERLIN]

Occams,

I'll be taking SD with ya, should be some good football come sunday.
Can't go against them just yet, they have a real good shot at beating Denver. SD has brought me the money many times and my numbers also have them in a close but profitable situation, not as clear cut as past weeks but still right there.
I will however take the 3 points and take my chances.

Both teams can hold thier own, hope it doesn't come down to the final play though!
Go Chargers!

GL ,

MERLIN

 

[sphincter]

denver is a public darling sunday.....why?.......because they need the game?.....

so did boston college last week.....so did iowa st last week....

tcu and arkansas needed wins to become bowl eligible....they lost....

actually,denver needed to beat atlanta at home after wetting the bed on monday night vs cincinnati.......and they got drubbed..

i don`t think they`re that good....i think san diego is....

trends?...fine...i live in the here and now...

maybe it loses...i`ll take my chances with the hotter club at home with revenge laying 2.5....

g.l.

 

[OccamsRazor]

Wanted to address my money line bet. Marging of victory in NFL:
3...14.1%
2...3.6%
1...5.2%

22.9% probability that the numbers come up and bite me or 77.1% that it won't. I paid $151 to cover myself from an event that only has a 22.9% probability of happening, not very good in my part and that's not even looking at the 48% of the Dog winning outright. Overall... just kick ass SD.

 

[OccamsRazor]

"Plummer is prone to the inopportune interception." OccamsRazor.

4 INTS today with the last and most inopportune coming in the endzone with the game on the line. Thanks Jake.

When the dust cleared, moneyline bet turned out to be worth it.

Congrats to those on the Chargers. arty:

 

[winbet]

Occams,

Congrats on your post. Dont know the validity of those percentages but I must admit to being surprised at 5.2% for 1 pt and 2 pts 3.6%. I have never been a numbers man but my daughters come home from college and keep telling me the odds etc, things like deviation from the mean, progression through the arc. All I know, neither would make money gambling.

 

[Hitman26]

Razor. You are sharp and I respect you but S/D ML wasn't the play or "worth it", S/D -2.5 juiced was the play. Big difference in the long run.




Peace