Sunday Bet O The Day 11/16

[OccamsRazor]

YTD 14-13
SIDES 8-8
TOTALS 6-5

Week 1 Panthers +9 W
Week 2 Saints +1 L, Eagles +7 W
Week 3 Panthers +3'L, Panther TT OVER 17 L, Dallas Under 50 W
Week 4 Titans +3 W, Jax-7 L, Phi/Chi Ov 39 W,Pitt/Bal Un 39 L
Week 5 Steelers +6 W, SD/Miami OV 44' L
Week 6 NO/OAK UN 47'W,Cards+5 W,NYG TTUN25'L NYG TTOV14 W.
Week 7 SD +1 L, Indy -1 L, NE/DEN OV 49 W
Week 8 SD/NO UN 46 L Steelers-3 L Tenn-4 W Tenn/Colt OV 40 W
Week 9 Clev-2 L Steel+2 W
Week 10 Tenn-3 W Zona-10 L <!-- / message -->

I couldn't leave well enough alone last week (Tenn-3) and went and laid 10 points in the NFL, result: "Here is your ass back sir, you inexplicably left it here." I got my ass handed back to me.

Going into week 11, I'm sitting at around .500 thanks 2 errors in judgement, asking Cleveland to win me money in week 9 and laying 10 points in week 10. Without those 2 losers, I'd be looking at 56%.

Going back to the well until it runs dry. I've been on Tenn 3 times so far this season because they fit the formula of how to win in the NFL. " 1)Stop your opponents running game, 2)Force them to throw, (3 things happen when you throw and 2 of them are bad) and 3)Sack their QB.

Basically, your foundation for winning in this league starts with defense (See TENN and Giants this year.)

Today I get a chance to take the best defense in the league in points allowed,the best Turnover Ratio in the league and I don't have to lay any points(TENN ML-130). I get the ML value due to bettors falling for the oldest illusion in gambling, "They are due" As in, "Tenn is due to lose this week" All objective reasons go out the window and subjective reasoning rules the day, "I don't care that TENN is undefeated because they play solid ball, I'm taking a sub .500 team and asking to win me money cause Tenn is due."

TENN ML-130

Manage your bankroll, this is just another bet in a series of positive expectancy wagers here. The bet can lose, the trick is to never tap out in this journey. In the long run protecting the bankroll is more important than picking winners in a positive expectancy model.

GL always.

<!-- / message -->

 

[OccamsRazor]

I'm amazed by the number one reason for taking the Jaguars that I'm seeing on this board, "Tenn is due to lose."

The 'Due' reason has picked up game, after game, after game that Tenn has won and has hit fever pitch. After Tenn wins this game bettors are really gonna go nuts on the Jets next week, because Tenn will REALLY be due.
hno:

 

[OccamsRazor]

No surprise as Tennessee schools Jaguars on how to win in the NFL:

" 1)Stop your opponents running game, 2)Force them to throw, (3 things happen when you throw and 2 of them are bad) and 3)Sack their QB.

Garrard finished 13-of-30 for 135 yards with the interception and the second-worst passer rating (43.1) in 39 career starts. He was sacked four times, three in the second half.

Jacksonville set a franchise record with 10 punts.


Good teams always find a way to win:Collins and Gage also hooked up for a 56-yard score in the third period -- the only third-down conversion for the Titans. They were 1-of-12 on third down.

The Titans swept the season series against AFC South rival Jacksonville for the third time in seven years and won their seventh consecutive regular-season road game. This one may have been more impressive than any of the others.



And lastly a brutal cold hearted quote from the Tennessee Defense

"We wanted to knock Jacksonville out of contention and out of the playoffs, and we did that," Haynesworth said.

Titans don't fuck around and thats how you win in the NFL cold hardhitting defense.

Last week: Cortland Finnegan sucker punching Chicago's Hester in the face after the play was over and Hester retaliating and getting caught swinging by the Referee 15 yards against Chicago. Finnegan was laughing and through lip reading he mouthed to Hester:"You're a dumb motherfucker!" TV replays then showed consistent unnecessary roughness plays by Finnegan, dirty at times but the kid epitomizes the TENN defense:

"We wanted to knock Jacksonville out of contention and out of the playoffs, and we did that," Haynesworth said.

No mercy


Next up Jets.

:toast: Congrats to TENN backers :toast:

Why wait? Tenn-5' BET O THE DAY 11/23

Tenn defense vs Farve. Nuff said

 

[billbeater]

Nice Play RaZor! had tenn +3.5 in pick pool because of reverse line, but i really thought Jags had something.
Coach Fisher started throwing and played to win! Excellent coaching

Congrats :toast:

 

[thecruncher]

Had it, loved it, nice.

 

[OccamsRazor]

Adding:

MONDAY NIGHT

CLEV/BUFF UNDER 41

Brady first start on Rd. Game plan will be simple. Buff will blitz often. Buff only scored more than 17 points once in its last 5. Weather a factor, game will be slowed down.GL



Manage your bankroll, this is just another bet in a series of positive expectancy wagers here. The bet can lose, the trick is to never tap out in this journey. In the long run protecting the bankroll is more important than picking winners in a positive expectancy model.

 

[billbeater]

weather here right now is quiet, no wind, high 30s, nothing horrible. i know its a rarity, but i seen some sun an hour ago...
im not at totals guy, but this looks to be a tough one....

 

[OccamsRazor]

weather here right now is quiet, no wind, high 30s, nothing horrible. i know its a rarity, but i seen some sun an hour ago...
im not at totals guy, but this looks to be a tough one....

thanks billbeat, weather if it worsens will be an added factor. Still like the UNDER even if it stays with the current skies.

8:00am pacific

 

[billbeater]

just thinking that, im north and OP is in the southtowns, so the squall thing is hopefully there for you and Clev + Under!

GL

 

[OccamsRazor]

UNDER cruised into the 4th before the wheels came off causing it to crash like a drunken teen driving home from the prom.
hno:

 

[thecruncher]

Yeah, I had 1st half Over and then 2nd half Under. 3-3 3rd quarter and then boom! 2 long touchdowns in the first 30 seconds of the 4th.